Stanley Druckenmiller
La mano derecha de George Soros durante años acaba de hablar en la Ira Sohn Conference.
Algunas de sus ideas:
– I like the markets short-term, not long-term. Ben Bernanke is running the federal reserve inappropriately.
– Druckenmiller says that he sees no condition for a bear market until the Fed changes, so expects markets to keep rising
– Druckenmiller says Japan likely at beginning of a new cyclical bull market.
– Japan’s policy is much more appropriate than that in US. Japan market has better risk/reward picture.
– Druckenmiller: we think commodity super cycle is over. the last two years are not a correction, but the beginning of a trend
– He wants to avoid all commodity currencies like Brazil, Canada and says you should short the Australian Dollar.
– Druckenmiller says you should also avoid any commodity-heavy companies.
– Druckenmiller says long $goog. "At 16 times earnings, I cant’ imagine a better steal."
– Druckenmiller has a concluding final bullish position: Google.
He says he "can’t imagine" a greater bet than it in technology and makes a slight dig at people crowding into Apple, without naming Apple. He rambles off a bunch of Google advancements, Google Glass, Google Car etc. And concludes it has "no exposure to China."
Muy interesante y si, tiene unas ideas muy compatibles a las mias, Google mucho mejor que Apple sin duda… Materias primas y metales han llegado a su fin, si, yo tambien lo pienso!
Y el mercado a corto y largo, pues tambien tiene mucho sentido, seguiremos observando y volveremos para ver como fueron las predicciones.
Desde el 8 de mayo,
BRL vs EUR: -11%
AUD vs EUR: -9%
No iba mal encaminado!
Stan may be the greatest moneymaking machine in history. He has Jim Roger’s analytical ability, George Soros’s trading ability, and the stomach of a riverboat gambler when it comes to placing his bets. His lack of volatility is unbelievable. I think he’s had something like five down quarters in 25 years and never a down year. The Quantum record from 1989 to 2000 is really his. The assets grew from $1 billion to $20 billion over that time and the performance never suffered. Soros’s record was made on a smaller amount of money at a time when there were fewer hedge funds to compete against.
I never use valuation to time the market. I use liquidity considerations and technical analysis for timing. Valuation only tells me how far the market can go once a catalyst enters the picture to change the market direction.
The catalyst is liquidity, and hopefully my technical analysis will pick it up.
And a more recent quote from Druckenmiller, related to Soros’s advice “don’t try to play the game better, pay attention to when the game has changed”:
I really don’t care whether we go to $70 billion or $65 billion in September, … But if you tell me quantitative easing is going to be removed over 9 or 12 months, that is a big deal