Sobre la inflación
Peter Schiff:
"Since the 1970’s the preferred government inflation metrics have changed so thoroughly that they bear scant resemblance to those used during the "malaise days" of the Carter years. Government and academia defend the integrity and accuracy of the modern methods while dismissing critics as tin hat conspiracy theorists. But given the huge stakes involved, it’s hard to believe that institutional bias plays no role. Government statisticians are responsible for coming up with the methodology and the numbers, and their bosses catch huge breaks if the inflation numbers come in low. Human behavior is always influenced by such incentives.
Beginning in the early 1980’s the methodologies were altered to compensate for a variety of consumer behavior. The new "chain weighted CPI" for instance incorporates changes in relative spending, substitution bias, and subjective improvements in product quality.
Essentially these measures report not just on price movements, but on spending patterns, consumer choices, and product changes. This is fine if the goal is to measure the cost of survival. But that is not the purpose for which these metrics are meant to be used. But if you simply focus on price, especially on those staple commodity goods and services that haven’t radically changed over the years, the underreporting of inflation becomes more apparent." – in The Global Investor Newsletter
To put it in economic terms, the velocity of money – the rate at which money is exchanged – has slowed.
From January 1959-August 2008, banks held an average of $0.8 billion in excess reserves at the Fed. The one exception was in September 2001, when excess reserves rose to $19 billion in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks.
Between 9/11 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, banks held an average of $1.7 billion of excess reserves at the Fed.
Following the Lehman collapse, excess bank reserves held at the Fed soared. Excess reserves peaked at more than $1.6 trillion in July 2011 and remain at more than $1.5 trillion as of the end of January 2013.
That’s more than $1.5 trillion that could be put to work in the economy, but is just gathering dust in the Fed because interest rates remain at zero.
That is where all of the Fed’s quantitative easing has gone.
Through quantitative easing, the Fed has created a gigantic amount of money that has had no impact on the real economy. Some Federal Open Market Committee members have started to talk about ending quantitative easing but keeping interest rates at zero.
The question is whether rates can be kept at zero when the Fed’s balance sheet is shrinking.
Most market observers think long-term interest rates will rise once the Fed stops buying Treasury bonds for its quantitative easing operations. If long rates start to rise, it may awaken inflationary expectations that might be amplified by the Fed keeping short rates artificially low.
If that happens, banks – once again able to earn a reasonable risk-adjusted return – may start to mobilize that $1.5 trillion in excess reserves and that is when you will see inflation take off out of nowhere.
The “inflation battle” does not start now
In the inflation battle, gold will follow rises in wages the same as in the 1970s. We judge that the inflation battle will start at the earliest in 3 to 5 years. By then, U.S. rates will be still low, but inflation will be above 2.5%. Thanks to the slowing in emerging markets and falling commodity prices, U.S. CPI inflation has come down far under 2%.
Pues en españa el IPC adelantado es ya del 2.7 en Febrero. Si aumentan los impuestos como manda Bruselas, especialmente el de la gasolina, la guerra la tenemos ya. Y con los depósitos al 1.75, el dinero tendrá que empezar a salir de la cueva.
Yo creo que la inflacion solo se vera cuando la gente empiece a gastar sin miedo, y no parece que estemos muy cerca de eso, que el dinero vaya a inversiones diversas, eso es muy posible, materias primas, oro, inmobiliaria, emergentes.. cada vez una segun la moda, pero que se empiece a gastar de verdad en la calle y que suban los precios en general, no lo veo yo! De hecho eso es lo que ocurria en 2007 y por eso subio la inflacion, ahora hay mucho mas dinero disponible por el efecto de las medidas de QE, pero no disponible al publico, que no es lo mismo, cuando cambie la velocidad del dinero y cuando el credito suba, entonces podremos empezar a plantearnos si se vera inflacion, yo creo que eso no lo vamos a ver pronto, como bien dice George Dorgan todavia quedan entre 3 y 5 años, para entonces muchas cosas pueden haber cambiado, seguramente el oro ya no este de moda.
De momento deflación!
La greece se ha vuelto ahorradora por eso no hay inflación!
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