Demografía en USA
A parecer las proximas dos decadas van a ser las mas duras en cuestion de demografia principalmente por que se jubilan los babyboomers, lo cual producira exceso de vivienda y que salga mucho dinero de los planes de pensiones:
A new study by The Pew Research Center shows that the birth rate in the United States has dropped to the lowest level since 1920, when reliable statistics were first made available.
The birth rate dropped precipitously last year to only 63.2 per 1,000 women of childbearing age (which is defined as 15 to 44 years of age). That is half of what it was in 1957 at its peak.
Most people aren’t troubled by this — but they should be. Here’s why.
Our low birth rate has tremendous implications at all levels of our society. What’s more, it is yet another sign that we are turning Japanese.
People question me all the time about it – challenge me is more like it – arguing that the United States is different. That somehow, unlike Japan, we’re going to escape the economic mess we’ve created for ourselves.
Having spent more than 20 years closely involved in Japanese society as a businessman, a husband, a father, and a part-time resident, I think that’s wishful thinking.
The truth is any population decline in the United States will have severe implications for our economic way of life exactly the way it has in Japan.
And it’s not just the numbers of births that matter, but rather all of the things that stem from low birth rates years down the line.
The Future Pitfalls of the Decline in U.S. Birth Rates
For example, a lower birth rate means fewer job prospects in the future. It also means fewer workers feeding into a system that actually requires more workers to support the greying society we live in.
With declining birth rates, Japan is now expected to drop from 2.8 workers supporting each retiree in 2008 to 1.5 by 2050.
Here in the United States, our trend is headed in the same direction, where a mere 2.6 workers will be expected to support each retiree by 2050. That’s a 44.68% decrease from the 4.7 workers in 2008 — and a whopping 85.65% reduction from the 42 workers who supported each retiree at the end of WWII.
There are implications in terms of health care rationing, too. It will affect home care, assisted living, traffic, mobility, technology, and taxes. Especially taxes…
Los americanos al menos pueden traer inmigrantes, cosa que los Japos no hacen, y con el idioma y su carencia de ingles, ademas lo tienen complicado.
La generación del baby boom. Boomers nacidos entre 1946 y 1964, justo en el momento culminante de esta relación en el 2000, cuando tenían entre 36 y 54 años de edad. Ahora, al final de 2012, los boomers tienen entre 48 a 64 años de edad. Como grupo, ahora son los que menos interesados están en iniciar nuevos negocios, y más interesados en mantener lo que tienen, así como jugar con sus nietos. Así que estos boomers, como grupo, no representan el mismo tipo de motor del crecimiento económico que lo hicieron en la década de 1990.
Es de esperar otra generación de boomers, que vio su mejor año para los nacimientos en 1990 y así deberíamos esperar un boom económico renovado. Pero en este momento, las personas nacidas en 1990 tienen tan sólo 22 años de edad, por lo que la mayoría de ellos no están listos para iniciar el próximo gran movimiento, y ciertamente están preparados para comprar las carteras de acciones de los anteriores baby boomers y sus Mcmansiones.
Desde un punto de vista político, a menos que colectivamente se encuentre una manera de conseguir un aumento de participación de la población total y de la fuerza de trabajo, no podemos esperar tener la base fiscal necesaria para financiar las nobles metas de gasto federal por mucho más tiempo“.
Demographics are a huge driver.I am not in the camp that believes demographics are the be-all-end-all, but one should not underestimate how significant a factor they are. The aging of the baby boomers is affecting housing (they are downsizing), job creation (they are working longer), investment planning (they have been heavy bond buyers) and generational wealth transfer (it’s a-comin’).
A baby boomer is a person who was born during the demographic post-World War II baby boom between the years 1946 and 1964, according to the U.S. Census Bureau
… Baby boomers control over 80% of personal financial assets and more than half of all consumer spending
The oldest baby boomer is now 67 years old.
By 2020 more than half of baby boomers will be over the age of 65. The vast majority of pension assets are for the retirement of the baby boomer generation. A great secular move towards risk seems highly unlikely to me when the group that controls the majority of assets are heading towards retirement or already in it.
I believe it is far more likely that we are in the latter part of a cyclical bull market than at the beginning of a “Great Rotation” and secular move into risk assets. We have had a four year bull market where the S&P 500 has had a total return of roughly 135%. This “Great Rotation” argument is a rationalization for those who have missed the move to follow their primal instinct to herd. “The Internet Is The Future” was the rationale for throwing caution to the wind during 1999. While the slogan was true the investment implications were disastrous. With that said, the market did not top out for another year after we started hearing that catch phrase.
Ratio poblacion con empleo:
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The participation rate is alarming. The old people won’t retire (they can’t) and the one thing you can’t fake – employment-to-population – has not improved. On top of which, right now we’ve got 40 million Americans age 65 and older. In 15 years we’ll have 70 million age 65 and older!
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Cambios en la piramide poblacional:
Los proximos años van a ser duros!ImageUploadedByTapatalk1407264198.806881.jpgImageUploadedByTapatalk1407264214.103126.jpg
Lo que importa es la gente en edad de invertir:
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