¿Hard o Soft landing para China?
La economia China esta aterrizando poco a poco o no tan despacio? Los datos que muestran pueden estar muy manipulados, es lo que cree la mayoria de la gente:
"The giant state-owned enterprises have posted their worst figures since the grim days of 2008. First-half profits were down 11.6% on the year. The main casualties so far have been commodity-related companies. Steelmakers have seen profits dive by 96% – it’s been described as a “disaster zone” by the China Securities Journal.
But any big stimulus measures will just boost inflation and increase the bad debt load across the Chinese economy. That would set up China for an even harder landing in the future"
Visto en Also Sprach Analyst: http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/econom … obots.html
La demografia de China, principalmente causa de la ley de un solo hijo:
"China probably has already passed the Lewisian turning point, which means that the pool of surplus labour from rural area is already drying up. We have also been pointing out that Chinese working-age population will start to shrink within a few years time (from 2015 onwards, to be precise), and total population will start to shrink in 2025 according to UN Population Division’s projections. In other words, China has probably been set-up for a demographic perfect storm."
Por ejemplo:
“Lenovo is establishing a US manufacturing base because we believe in the long-term strength of the American PC market and our own growth opportunities here,” said Yuanqing Yang, chairman and CEO, Lenovo.
Y la substitucion de trabajadores por robots:
"Foxconn, China’s biggest employer, produce Apple’s iPad and other electronic gadgets. The group currently employs 1m workers but has just 10,000 robots on its production lines.
Mr Gou outlined the company’s ambitious automation plans at a Foxconn gathering late last week in Shenzhen, a coastal manufacturing centre in southern China. According to people who attended the function, the chief executive said the group would have up to 300,000 robots next year and 1m by 2013, highlighting the drastic changes China-based manufacturers are making as competition for labour increases."
Y esto: http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/econom … lures.html
Guess which country boasted the following characteristics: GDP grew at 11% annually for almost 10 years. The authoritarian, one-party state promoted rapid industrialization by relocating workers to coastal urban areas. The government welcomed foreign-direct investment and courted companies through tax exemptions and other benefits. Seventy-five percent of the top 100 largest domestic firms’ assets belonged to the state sector. The government’s savings rate doubled in less than a decade, while the agricultural share of employment fell by more than one-third over the same period.
Sounds like China, right? No: It’s Brazil from 1965 to 1974. Few remember that under junta rule, that country achieved "miracle" growth for a decade. Brazil certainly hasn’t kept it up. Understanding what went wrong there is key to parsing the claim that China’s Brazil-like growth model, the so-called "Beijing Consensus," has proved its superiority over the deregulated capitalism of the "Washington Consensus" after the recent financial crisis.
Segun M Faber:
“I think at the present China is growing at maximum 4 percent.” – in the IMF/World Bank annual meetings"
“once, the idea that China’s growth would slow to a mere 7.4% was unthinkable. Anything below 8% was seen as mass revolution territory”
Visto en Money Week
Christopher Balding – HSBC Business School
Idea: Macro Call of Short China
Thesis: He’s an Associate Professor of Finance and Economics at the HSBC Business School of Peking University Graduate School. A lot of data from China is manipulated. China is a huge bubble. Example of bad reporting is growth numbers. Growth reported from provinces aggregates to 10.8% growth whereas official GDP from China is 7.8%. Another example: official CPI housing price inflation up 14% while real estate prices up 111%. Price in income ratio for real estate in San Francisco is 9.4. This seems high, but it is 32 in Shenzhen. The official numbers say that steel companies in China have $500B in debt and only $300M in profits. Would be very careful before simply taking financial and economic data at face value. Banks in China are starved for capital right now. There is risk dispersion. 2/3rds of the stocks in China have been really hurt while 1/3rd are trading at a premium. Example is BYD trading at a P/E of 1,100.
Jim Chanos de Kinikos, opina lo mismo…
Soros habla de Hard landing en China!