La curva de tipos de Australia esta invertida
Eso indica recesion!
Segun Mauldin:
"Serious academic studies show that a negative yield curve for 90 days, and with certain values, is the one reliable indicator when it comes to forecasting recessions. "
Sobre la curva de tipos americana:
"The yield curve is currently meaningless in terms of forecasting, as it is totally manipulated by the Fed. We don’t really know what short term rates would be if left to the market. I can’t say when we will have the next recession, but I am fairly sure that the yield curve will still be positive one year in advance. Short-term rates (and interest rates in general) are not going to rise significantly any time soon."