Son efectivas las encuestas de sentimiento?
Aqui tenemos una de Investors Intelligence para empezar:
Sentiment is a big problem for Prechter. In addition to the leverage, he’s worried that the NAAIM Survery of Investment Managers shows that the average manager is now leveraged on the long side for the first time ever. This is a new record exposure to stocks. Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus is now at extreme optimism, higher than it was at the Dow’s previous all-time high in 2007. Hubert Financial Digest’s Newsletter sentiment shows the highest readings since March 2000 for bullish advisors, again higher than the 2007 peak. Hedge Fund net long exposure rose to a 10-year high in Q4 2012. There are all-time record low levels of cash right now in mutual funds. Credit Suisse has a proprietary fear barometer showing record complacency. BofA Merril Lynch’s Bull & Bear index is at record highs of extreme optimism. Insiders, on the other hand, are the only ones selling heavily. Vickers’ insider sell/buy ratio is now up at 9.2 to 1.
Aquí tenemos una que indica que deberíamos de corregir:
80% de alcistas para 2014:
Parece ser que la mayoria de indicadores de sentimiento indican euforia:
Los últimos datos, revelan que el 66,9% de los inversores particulares centran en estos momentos sus inversiones en las bolsas de valores, un dato que está por encima del promedio histórico situado en el 60%. El mes de febrero ha sido el undécimo mes consecutivo con una lectura superior al 60%, alcanzando así la racha más larga desde antes de la crisis financiera.[attachment=-1]uploadfromtaptalk1393935513574.jpg[/attachment]
Ultimos datos de sentimiento:ImageUploadedByTapatalk1394465615.503594.jpg
Muy pocos bajistas:
Aquí dicen lo opuesto…[attachment=-1]uploadfromtaptalk1397823492015.jpg[/attachment]
La media movil de 10 semanas: