Optimismo en 2017?

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Dalamar
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Re: Optimismo en 2017?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 04 Sep 2017 19:37

Las materias primas estan subiendo bastante, seria raro que tengamos recesion pronto... Lo logico sera que el petroleo le siga despues, objetivo 60 usd el barril... El oro tambien tiene buena pinta.
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Re: Optimismo en 2017?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 11 Sep 2017 16:51

Parece que el optimismo no termina de llegar... Sera dificil que terminemos el año con sustos...

“Is an equity correction imminent?”

Goldman Sachs’ top stock market analyst David Kostin says that’s the question everyone is asking.

“Clients keep asking about an impending equity downturn,” he wrote in a new research note. “Reasons cited include the 8-year bull market and economic expansion, high valuation, low volatility, Fed tightening, and politics.”

Ironically, awareness of this long list of worries may actually be making the market less vulnerable to a major sell-off — as it inhibits reckless buying. This brings us to the two key reasons why a market correction remains at bay.

Markets are not euphoric

“First, investors are not complacent,” Kostin said. “In Sir John Templeton’s timeless observation, ‘Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.’ Investors today are situated between skepticism and optimism.”

And this is not just based on the soft data coming from sentiment surveys. The hard data reflects conservative positioning.

“Few are euphoric as 27% of core managers are beating their benchmark,” Kostin added. “‘Tormented bulls’ best describes investor mentality. Alpha-seekers have normal cash positions (3.2% of mutual fund assets), active manager redemptions are offset by beta inflows (ETFs), and corporates continue to repurchase shares.”

Speaking of hard data, the fundamentals underlying the economy remain quite strong, despite all of the worries out there. This is the second reason why Goldman Sachs isn’t worried about a market correction.
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Re: Optimismo en 2017?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 21 Oct 2017 10:56

No parece que 2017 vaya a terminar mal...

Thomson Reuters data (by the numbers from This Week in Earnings, 10/20/17)

Fwd 4-qtr estimate: $142.24
P.E ratio: 18.1(x)
PEG ratio: 1.79(x)
SP 500 earnings yield: 5.52%
Year-over-year growth of fwd estimate: +10.13% versus last week’s +9.8%.
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Re: Optimismo en 2017?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 31 Oct 2017 06:47

Se empieza a ver el optimismo...

Eurozone economic confidence surges to highest in 17 years.

Euro-area economic confidence surged to its highest in almost 17 years, reflecting an improved outlook for a region that not long ago was blighted by record joblessness and a double-dip recession. The index of industry and consumer sentiment rose to 114 in October from a revised 113.1 the previous month, the European Commission in Brussels said on Monday. That’s the gauge’s fifth consecutive monthly increase and the strongest reading since January 2001. It compares with a median estimate of 113.3 in a Bloomberg survey. Sentiment increased across all sectors, according to the European Commission. After the past decade dealt the euro area two prolonged economic slumps, a sovereign debt crisis and an almost-exit of Greece from the single currency, the 19-nation region is experiencing a growth revival. Unemployment is declining and consumer spending, as well as corporate earnings and investment, are on the rise.

US consumer spending grows at fastest pace since 2009; core inflation benign.
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