Inflacion

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Dalamar
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Inflacion

Mensajepor Dalamar » 23 Mar 2013 09:55

Consumer Price Index has hovered around 2% for the last four years, or why other inflation measurements are in the 5%-8% range. How can this be?

Quite simply because it’s a government report that’s been frequently manipulated over the last 35 years. Whether by design (my bet) or coincidence, these revisions have served to reduce the official inflation rate.

Also, keep in mind that our government has a record $16.7 trillion in debt it is paying interest on. If interest rates rise, it costs Uncle Sam more money. If inflation rises, interest rates follow. Obviously, the government has incentives to manipulate the official inflation rate lower than it really is.

The bottom line is that there is no absolute and objective gauge of inflation. Any particular measure is simply one way of making the calculation, based on a host of assumptions. We do know with certainty that a number of the costs that American households face are going up considerably faster than the CPI.

Finally, the fact that real world inflation is higher than the CPI poses challenges for investors. Investors should calculate their total required return net of the effect of inflation. As the inflation rate increases, higher returns must be earned in order to obtain a desired real rate of return.

Those who believe that inflation is only 2%, when it may be 5-8%, may be making investment decisions that are almost guaranteed to erode the purchasing power of their money over time. This is especially true with low-yielding investments such as CDs, Treasuries, etc.

Via J Mauldin
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Dalamar
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Re: Inflacion

Mensajepor Dalamar » 23 Mar 2013 09:56

Over the shrill opposition of liberal Democrats, Obama has verbally offered to change the way cost of living increases are calculated for Social Security and other entitlements. Instead of the CPI now used, he said he might consider using something called the “chained CPI.”

In a nutshell, chained CPI is a measure of inflation that seeks to account for substitution by consumers when prices rise. While the current CPI measure uses substitution to a small extent, chained CPI assumes that when prices rise, consumers will resort to entirely different products, rather than just seeking a cheaper brand. For example, if beef prices rise, chained CPI would assume that consumers might opt for chicken to save money.
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Re: Inflacion

Mensajepor Dalamar » 23 Mar 2013 09:58

Then there’s the so-called “Big Mac Index” that was popularized by The Economist some years ago. McDonald’s hamburgers are available in many countries and their prices reflect the cost of food, fuel and basic labor. The price of a Big Mac, therefore, can be yet another indicator of inflation in a particular country. Since the recession ended, the cost of a Big Mac in the US has risen from an average of $3.57 to $4.37, or 5.2% a year.
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diegog
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Re: Inflacion

Mensajepor diegog » 24 Mar 2013 17:59

El sitio ShadowStats.com http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_da ... ion-charts tiene bastante info sobre este tipo de estadiststicas

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Re: Inflacion

Mensajepor Dalamar » 24 Mar 2013 18:42

Si conozco Shadowstats, pero me da que exageran un poco, segun ellos la inflacion es de mas del 10% y eso no se puede ocultar, es obvio, si la comida sube un 10-12% al anio, no puedes decir que es un 2-3% porque en 7 anios se ha duplicado de precio, y eso salta a la vista.
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