Peter Schiff

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Peter Schiff

Mensajepor Dalamar » 28 Oct 2012 16:18

I think gold is going to go up against all currencies…central banks around the world are being too loose. The Dollar Index is going to be cut in half at a minimum. If we don’t change our policies, the dollar index could go much lower. - in Futures Now
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Re: Peter Schiff

Mensajepor Dalamar » 13 Nov 2012 14:19

Schiff, the CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, made his remarks about the dire consequences of excessive quantitative easing. Schiff said he has dubbed the Fed's third round of bond-buying, known as QE3, "Operation Screw" because "everybody's pretty much screwed if they own dollars."

Schiff, who is best known for predicting the collapse of the housing bubble and the 2008 financial crisis in his 2007 book "Crash Proof," laughed at the claim made by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that QE3 is "inflation-neutral."

"He's lying," Schiff said. "It is not inflation-neutral. It is the very definition of inflation. The government tries to mask how bad inflation is by giving us phony numbers that purport to measure it with the CPI or PCE or whatever Ben Bernanke wants to point to, but the reality is prices are already going up."

Inflation isn't running rampant now, he said, only because all that new Fed money hasn't worked its way to the consumer yet.

"Inflation enters the market in different ways," Schiff explained. "It goes through the banks, it goes through housing, it goes through stocks. Sometimes it takes a distorted path before it ultimately ends up in consumer prices."

"Ultimately, I think we're going to see prices skyrocketing," he said. "And I think we're going to get shortages."

Schiff said the long gasoline lines in New York and New Jersey in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy are a taste of what's in store for the broader U.S. economy when inflation takes off.

"They won't let gas stations raise prices because they'll prosecute them for price gouging," he said. "So as a result, people have to wait in line five hours for gas.

"When prices start to skyrocket as a result of the inflation the Fed's creating, you're going to see price controls imposed on a whole bunch of products," Schiff said, "which means we're going to be standing in line for just about everything."
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Re: Peter Schiff

Mensajepor Dalamar » 08 Mar 2013 20:18

"There is no exit strategy because the results of the Fed withdrawing its artificial support would be disastrous for the US Treasury and in the short-term, the US economy.

The Fed is expected to buy nearly 90% of new Treasury bonds in 2013, according to Bloomberg. This is a tremendous subsidy that has kept 10-year Treasury yields below 1.95% on average this year so far. Last year, with 10-year yields averaging 1.8%, the Treasury spent $360 billion on interest payments alone. That represented nearly 10% of all expenditures.

Let's assume a Fed tightening causes these rates to triple - not unreasonable for a government facing over 100% debt-to-GDP. If these rates triple by 2015, and another $2 trillion or so is added to the debt, then interest would make up over 30% of annual federal expenditures. Just interest." - in Town Hall
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Re: Peter Schiff

Mensajepor Dalamar » 08 Mar 2013 20:22

"People think the economy is expanding. We just got the GDP number, the revised fourth quarter, and it showed a slight expansion, +0.1%. But that`s because the government assumes there`s no inflation. They want us to believe that inflation is about 1.50%. Inflation in my opinion is at least 5%, if not quite a bit more.

But even if inflation is only 3% that means the U.S. economy is contracting, which makes a lot of sense to me. The reason it does not feel like a recovery for most people is because it`s not. It`s still a recession." - in a recent RT TV interview
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Re: Peter Schiff

Mensajepor Dalamar » 08 Mar 2013 20:24

"As I have said many times before, the Fed has no credible exit strategy. Its portfolio is far too large, and the economy, the housing market, the banks, and the government, are far too dependent on ultra-low interest rates to allow Bernanke any real options. In truth, his only exit strategy is to just talk about an exit strategy. Bernanke’s contention that the Fed need not sell any of its bonds is the closest thing yet to an official admission of this fact. Not too long ago Bernanke made the absurd claim that his intention to sell the bonds on the Fed’s balance sheet meant that he was not monetizing debt. How times have changed.

Bernanke is banking on the hope that his policies will jump start the economy which will then be able to motor along on its own. However, the current era of cheap money and fiscal stimulus will never create an economy that is capable of standing on its own legs. Instead, it is propping up a parasitic economy that is completely dependent on the very supports the Fed believes it can one day remove. But if the Fed does not remove them on its own, the markets eventually will." - in Market Playground
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Re: Peter Schiff

Mensajepor Dalamar » 12 Mar 2013 19:03

"The majority of jobs being created now will disappear when either the stimulus ends or rising interest rates bring back recession. When the time comes to pay the piper for all this stimulus, the bill will be large, and the collapse much worse than the financial crisis of 2008." - an excerpt from "Goldilocks and the Bear Jobs Report"
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Re: Peter Schiff

Mensajepor Dalamar » 02 Nov 2014 18:10

Hay que notar que, si bien Schiff estuvo acertado advirtiendo de lo que se ha venido a llamar Gran Recesión, desde entonces sus predicciones no han sido muy atinadas. Así por ejemplo, en Noviembre de 2013, decía:

Si la Fed empieza el tapering, cosa que no creo que haga, volveremos a la recesión. No será bueno para las acciones
En una frase, se equivocó en tres cosas: sí que empezó el tapering, no ha llevado a una recesión, y el S&P 500 a 1 año ha subido un 12.6%.

Se ha equivocado repetidamente en estos últimos años (podría decir que yo también), prediciendo un escenario de hiperinflación, colapso del dólar y recesión en repetidas ocasiones, y recomendando comprar oro (Noviembre 2012: "investors should get out of U.S. bonds and jump into gold").
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