Dalamar escribió:Los patrióticos conductores chinos volvieron en contra de las marcas japonesas. Así las ventas de Toyotas, Nissans y Hondas en el país se han desplomado de entre un 30%-50%. Nissan vendió uno de sus cuatro coches en China durante el trimestre desde el mes de junio, Toyota 1 entre 10.
The Senkaku-Diaoyu dispute with China is likely to be prolonged. Although in his first stint in office Abe struck a conciliatory tone with China, this time seems a bit different Japan violated the status quo by, in effect, nationalizing the islands, but yet does not seem prepared to confront China directly. China did not pick the timing or place for the tension, but seems bent on seeking the advantage. Its new leaders cannot back down without risking emboldening a number of other countries with whom it has unresolved territorial disputes with.
China and Japan have had an on-again, off-again relationship for centuries. At times, it has not been very pretty. China suffered a great deal at Japanese hands during WWII. Just when you thought the old wounds were finally healing, the off-again phase has come back in full force. Japan nationalized what were to them the Senkaku Islands last September. (Technically, Japan bought them from the Kurihara family for 2 billion yen.)
The earliest historical records we have indicate that the Chinese discovered the islands in the 15th century. The Japanese nationalized them in 1895. After WWII, the US administered them but gave control back to Japan in 1971. Returning control to Japan angered both China and Taiwan, as both countries considered the islands as their own. China and Taiwan then began to officially declare ownership of the islands.
The rub is that these rocks may be perched in the middle of a rather large oil and gas field. The UN identified the petroleum potential in 1969, but no drilling has taken place.
The leaders of both China and Japan have made strong statements, and their citizens have expressed even stronger emotions. The Chinese are boycotting certain Japanese companies, and Japanese exports to China have dropped 14.5% (as of latest data). Recent meetings between the two countries have not been helpful. Recently, in what was supposed to be a speech to smooth things over, a top Japanese foreign policy advisor basically lectured the Chinese on their behavior in Hong Kong. Not the stuff of great diplomatic gestures.
And as I get ready to finish this letter, this timely note has come in from Stratfor:
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has warned Beijing that Tokyo is losing patience with China’s assertive maritime behavior in the East and South China seas, suggesting China consider the economic and military consequences of its actions.
In an interview The Washington Post published just prior to Abe’s meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington, Abe said China’s actions around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and its overall increasing military assertiveness have already resulted in a major increase in funding for the Japan Self-Defense Forces and coast guard. He also reiterated the centrality of the Japan-U.S. alliance for Asian security and warned that China could lose Japanese and other foreign investment if it continued to use “coercion or intimidation” toward its neighbors along the East and South China seas.
The Indian navy is prepared to deploy vessels to the South China Sea to protect India's oil interests there, the navy chief said on Monday amid growing international fears over the potential for naval clashes in the disputed region.
India has sparred diplomatically with China in the past over its gas and oil exploration block off the coast of Vietnam. China claims virtually the entire mineral-rich South China Sea and has stepped up its military presence there. Other nations such as Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia have competing claims.
Indian state-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) has a stake in a gas field in the Nam Con Son basin, off Vietnam's south coast.
Indian Navy Chief Admiral D.K Joshi said while India was not a claimant in the dispute over territorial rights in the South China Sea, it was prepared to act, if necessary, to protect its maritime and economic interests in the region.
"When the requirement is there, for example, in situations where our country's interests are involved, for example ONGC ... we will be required to go there and we are prepared for that," Joshi told a news conference.
"Now, are we preparing for it? Are we having exercises of that nature? The short answer is yes," he said.
He described the modernisation of China's navy as "truly impressive" and acknowledged that it was a source of major concern for India.
Any display of naval assertiveness by India in the South China Sea would likely fuel concern that the navies of the two rapidly growing Asian giants could be on a collision course as they seek to protect trade routes and lock in the supply of coal, minerals and other raw material from foreign sources.
Philippine Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin accused China of preparing to build a structure on an uninhabited piece of land claimed by both countries in violation of a regional agreement.
The Philippine armed forces saw three Chinese coast guard ships and concrete blocks in the Scarborough Shoal as of Aug. 31, Gazmin told a congressional hearing in Manila today. The move contravenes a 2002 declaration between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to refrain from occupying land in the South China Sea, he said.
India is experiencing considerable angst over China's dealings with Pakistan. And China is unhappy - even suspicious - about India's increasing activities in the South China Sea, a section of Southeast Asia China has been pushing hard (some would say "bullying others") to control.
There's also a disputed border - a 2,400-mile shared boundary that has been the site of hundreds of "incursions" in recent years. Some experts have labeled it as the "most dangerous border in the world." The two countries fought a border war back in 1962 and have been skirmishing ever since. In March, a three-week standoff ended before it could escalate and, in late October, China and India signed an agreement aimed at easing those longtime tensions.
Despite that bit of seeming progress, India is still concerned about China's apparent desire to build a "blue-water" navy. The term is used to define a national naval force that's "offensive" in focus - meaning it is constructed to "project" a country's power beyond its own territorial waters.
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy "has been producing frigates, destroyers, submarines and missile boats at an unprecedented rate," Stars and Stripes reported in late June. "In September, it commissioned its first aircraft carrier, the 74,406-ton Liaoning."
As part of the Obama Administration's "strategic pivot" toward Asia, the U.S. Navy is shifting a big part of its focus toward that part of the world.
China's apparent goal is to keep the U.S. Navy from projecting U.S. influence into Southeast Asia. At the same time, Beijing wants to expand its own sphere of influence in that region, and allow it to push into this hemisphere.
South China Sea Squabble
As we've been telling you for a year and a half, the standoffs in the East and South China Seas have combined to create one of the world's most-troubling potential powder kegs.
They are actually two separate squabbles.
The first, and the largest, dispute is the one focusing on the South China Sea - a dispute that involves at least seven countries (Mainland China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia). China essentially wants to claim the entire region for itself - even though big swaths of the area run right up against the coastlines of some of these other countries.
The ramifications of this controversy can't be overstated. The region is flush with resources - as much as 213 billion barrels of oil (10 times the proven U.S. reserves) and 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (equal to all the reserves held by Qatar). There's also a rich fishing ground that employs thousands and feeds millions.
And if one country were to get control of this entire region - and were to enforce that control through militant means - the impact on global shipping could be devastating. More than half of the world's merchant fleet shipping passes through the Straits of Malacca, Sunda and Lombok - and most of that continues on to the South China Sea, say researchers at the Center for Naval Analysis and the Institute for National Strategic Studies.
The U.S. Navy uses this area to travel to its bases in the South Pacific.
This "spat" has already resulted in naval standoffs between China and the Philippines, allegations that China sabotaged oil-exploration gear put in place by Vietnam, and prompted Mainland China to overtly seek oil-exploration bids for areas that Vietnam says are part of its territorial waters.
In the summer of 2012, China even "formed" a city on islands that both Taiwan and Vietnam claim control over. Soon after, it approved a military garrison for that island.
And when Vietnam subsequently held "live-fire" exercises off its own coast - Beijing countered by accusing its neighbor of committing "an overt act."
The East China Sea situation - which pits China against Japan directly - is just as ticklish.
In September 2012, Japan "bought" several of the privately held Senkaku Islands - which China also claims - igniting a wave of anti-Japanese sentiment in China that caused Japanese products to be boycotted and Japanese-owned businesses to be looted.
Ever since that time, both countries have been sending aircraft and ships into the area -- escalating the potential for a "misunderstanding" or accident that could lead to a military confrontation.
When you get right down to it, here's the situation: Justified or not, Mainland China has claimed increasingly larger pieces of a region that's home to 1.5 billion people, rich fishing grounds, vast energy deposits, key military bases, 50% of the world's tanker shipments and five of the Top 10 shipping ports on earth.
China put its aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, into service in 2001, just as these China Seas tensions were heating up. That carrier is also a Soviet-era ship that was purchased from Russia, and China has made a big show of its sea trials.
India has now upped the ante.