Cuando creamos un sistema, hay periodos mas predecibles y otros que lo son menos, vamos a buscar los motivos, comenzaremos por los flujos en los fondos:
We provide new evidence for diseconomies of scale at the mutual fund level. Building on Berk and Green (2004) and allowing for gradual adjustment to equilibrium, we show that (quarterly) changes in fund performance are strongly negatively related to lagged predicted fund flows. We find that alphas would be more cross-sectionally dispersed and more persistent without the damping effect of flows. Thus, flows are an important factor behind the lack of predictability in mutual fund performance. This flow mechanism is strongest for smaller and more active funds with higher expense ratios, suggesting that it is related to the stock illiquidity and costly search for investment opportunities.