Ecuacion matematica para las burbujas

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Dalamar
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Ecuacion matematica para las burbujas

Mensajepor Dalamar » 22 Feb 2013 19:44

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1361555051.928120.jpg
ImageUploadedByTapatalk1361555058.563861.jpg
I found this equation in a paper from D. Sornette and A. Johansen ('Large Financial Crashes', Physica A 245, pp. 411-422, 1997) and it is claimed that this equation describes a rising market before a crash.

With a market approaching the crash (or sharp correction), you can find the missing parameters in the equation via a fitting algorithmus, and the equation gives you the date of the crash and the future market behavior before the crash. Wouldn't that be nice for investing if it really works?

The theoretical background of the equation is the assumption that crowd behaviour can be modeled via complex system theory and above equation is related to such a model.

As you can see, there are 9 parameters in the equation to be found via fitting. If you remember mathematics, you can fit whatever you want with just enough parameters. In the paper they discuss why the equation still works, and they show that it worked well in various past markets.
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Re: Ecuacion matematica para las burbujas

Mensajepor Dalamar » 09 May 2015 00:47

Vamos a ver unos cuantos articulos mas sobre como identificar crashes:

Didier Sornette - How we can predict the next financial crisis: http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornett ... anguage=en

Predicting Financial Crashes Using Discrete Scale Invariance: http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/9903321.pdf

We present a synthesis of all the available empirical evidence in the light of recent theoretical developments for the existence of characteristic log-periodic signatures of growing bubbles in a variety of markets including 8 unrelated crashes from 1929 to 1998 on stock markets as diverse as the US, Hong-Kong or the Russian market and on currencies. To our knowledge, no major financial crash preceded by an extended bubble has occurred in the past 2 decades without exhibiting such log-periodic signatures


Bubbles and anti-bubbles in Latin-American, Asian and Western stock markets: An empirical study: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/su ... .1.35.9596

Twenty-one signicant bubbles followed by large crashes or severe corrections in Latin-American and Asian stock markets are identied. We nd that, with very few exceptions, these speculative bubbles can be quantitatively described by a rational expectation model of bubbles predicting a specic power law acceleration as well as so-called log-periodic geometric patterns. This considerably extends the applicability


Financial bubbles: mechanisms and diagnostics: http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1404/1404.2140.pdf

We define a financial bubble as a period of unsustainable growth, when the price of an asset increases ever more quickly, in a series of accelerating phases of corrections and rebounds. More technically, during a bubble phase, the price follows a faster-than-exponential power law growth process, often accompanied by log-periodic oscillations. This dynamic ends abruptly in a change of regime that may be a crash or a substantial correction. Because they leave such specific traces, bubbles may be recognised in advance, that is, before they burst...


Otros: http://www.er.ethz.ch/publications/fina ... les_theory
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girado007
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Re: Ecuacion matematica para las burbujas

Mensajepor girado007 » 09 May 2015 20:13

Curve-fitting...
no hace falta ser muy avispado para ver la burbuja del bund y seguro que todos estos algoritmos pueden corroborar, pero pueden preveer innovaciones extrañas de nuestros gobernadores de bancos centrales?

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Dalamar
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Re: Ecuacion matematica para las burbujas

Mensajepor Dalamar » 10 May 2015 08:43

Si hay Curve-fitting o no es algo que podremos ir viendo segun se desarrollen los acontecimientos, yo tambien me pregunto si estas formulas sirven cuando hay manipulacion en los mercados, pero pueden ser utiles para otras bubujas menores como la de impresoras 3D, redes sociales etc... Todo es investigarlo!
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