In his latest note, Goldman’s equity strategist David Kostin says that his tactical view remains that S&P 500 has peaked at 2400 and (unlike BofA’s recent flipflop which now expects the S&P to keep rising to 2,450 after earlier predicting a 2,300 year end target) will fade to 2300 by year-end. In fact, looking dead ahead, Goldman comes about as close as it has in recent months warning of an imminent market drop: “investors will soon capitulate on their expectation of upside to 2017 EPS forecasts as they face the reality that the accretive impact from tax reform will not occur until 2018. In fact, revisions to consensus EPS forecasts during the past few months have been negative for both 2017 and 2018.”
But don’t worry: like other recent sellside notes, any imminent corrections (or crashes) will be a “buy the dip” opportunity, and thus Goldman keeps its year-end 2019 S&P 500 target at 2500, a 6% rise from the current index level and implies a forward P/E multiple contraction of 5% to 18x.
AI Predicts Next US Recession to Start in 2019
March 2019 is the current target date for the next US recession, says a machine-learning "forecasting engine" developed by San Diego-based Intensity Corporation.
Intensity boasts a number of Fortune 500 companies as clients and is itself comprised by a highly-skilled team of data scientists, statisticians, and econometrically-minded PhDs.
As of May 11th, Intensity's forecast, which is publicly available on their website, was signaling March 2019 as the expected start date for recession.
Mario Gabelli sees another 'pocket' like the '87 crash ahead — he just doesn't know when
The market has no margin of safety, but it is OK, Mario Gabelli said.http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/28/mario-gabelli-sees-another-pocket-like-the-87-crash-ahead--he-just-doesnt-know-when.html
However, investors need to be prepared for "one of those pockets" like the 1987 "Black Monday" crash and 2010 "flash crash," he warned.
He said those crashes were both due to the mechanics of the market.
Ron Paul: Not a 'total shock' if stocks plummet 25% and gold soars 50% by October
A painful correction is coming and there's little that can be done to prevent it, according to former Republican congressman and libertarian firebrand Ron Paul.
Speaking to CNBC last week, the former GOP presidential contender argued the economy is not as strong as Wall Street consensus believes, and the situation could turn ugly as soon as October.
DoubleLine's Jeffery Gundlach expects the S&P 500 to fall at least 3 percent by the end of the year.
When that happens, Gundlach predicts the VIX will double.
He said his firm has made an options bet on the S&P 500 that should return 400 percent if his forecasts are right.
He said that in his firm's analysis, volatility is so low that it can make a big return by buying put options — bets for a decline — on the S&P 500 for December. "It's not really a bear call on the S&P 500. It's more of a bull call on volatility," he said
As a result of the muted market performance, the CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, has persistently held near historical lows around 10 or below this year and hit an all-time low of 8.84 on July 26. The VIX was near 10.1 midday Tuesday as the S&P 500 edged up to a record high.
"I think going long the VIX is really sort of free money at a 9.80 VIX level today," Gundlach said. "I believe the market will drop 3 percent at a minimum sometime between now and December. And when it does I don't think the VIX will be at 10."
Gundlach reiterated his expectations for a snap higher in the VIX once volatility picks up, since hedge funds have piled heavily into bets that volatility will remain low.
The investor believes the VIX could double to 20, he said.
Jeffrey Gundlach says an obscure chart tells him yields will shoot higher and stocks will fall
DoubleLine Capital CEO and Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Gundlach predicts bond yields will rise leading to market volatility.
The bond manager recommends investors to "de-risk" their portfolios.
Gundlach's firm has assets under management of more than $100 billion.
"When the copper-gold ratio is rising it's incredibly suggestive that something is going on that might be a little inflationary," he said. "It suggests to me yields are going to break out to the upside. ... The leg up in yields will be a catalyst of volatility in the market."
When expert portfolio managers such as Neil Woodford speak, it?s worth listening. And his latest update is definitely worth a read if you have a spare five minutes. The UK?s most famous portfolio manager has a warning for investors – we are in a bubble.
Lights flashing red
In an article released earlier this week, Woodford explains that a decade on from the Global Financial Crisis, the ?biggest monetary policy experiment in history? has resulted in ?inflated asset prices and inflated valuations.? He says investors have forgotten about risk.