Crisis en Ucrania/Rusia, ¿Oportunidad?

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Dalamar
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Crisis en Ucrania/Rusia, ¿Oportunidad?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Mar 2014 18:14

Yo creo que si:

There have been threats from the Russians, specifically from one of Putin’s advisors, that the country would dump US government bonds if the US were to sanction Russia.

However, this is mostly an empty threat for a number of reasons:

First off, Russia has only $250 billion in US government bonds on its balance sheet. Though that sounds like a lot, it’s really not that big when you consider foreign countries hold an estimated $5.8 trillion in US government bonds.

Second, there isn’t a bond market in the world that could absorb $250 billion overnight. While this isn’t a deal breaker, Russia would need to find a buyer for all those Treasuries, which wouldn’t be an easy task.

Lastly and most importantly, if Russia were to dump its US bonds, it would be stuck with significant unfunded dollar liabilities. Oil and natural gas are traded in dollars, and since the Russians sell vast amounts of both, a lot of dollars flow into their coffers. Right now, they can match their dollar revenues with their dollar liabilities, which is a healthy strategy.

But if Russia were to dispose of its dollar holdings, its unfunded dollar liabilities would skyrocket, which would likely affect its credit rating. And if its credit rating were downgraded, higher borrowing costs would soon follow, along with a weakened stock market and a devalued Russian ruble, which could spawn inflationary pressures.
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Dalamar
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Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: Crisis en Ucrania/Rusia, ¿Oportunidad?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Mar 2014 18:15

El comercio de Alemania y Rusia:

Germany exports more to Russia than it does to Turkey and Japan combined. In fact, next to China and the Netherlands, Germany is Russia’s largest trading partner, accounting for over 7% of Russian imports.

And it’s not a one-way street: Germany is heavily dependent on Russian energy, importing more natural gas from Russia than any country in Europe.
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