Predicciones 2015

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Re: Predicciones 2015

Mensajepor Dalamar » 01 Ene 2015 19:13

J Mauldin es mayormente bajista para 2015: (Subira el oro y el petroleo)

The Rationale Behind My Downbeat Surprises for 2015

There are numerous reasons for my downbeat theme this year. In no order of importance: corporate profit margins remain elevated, the rate of domestic economic growth is decelerating (despite five years of QE and ZIRP), a quarter of the world is experiencing minimum growth in GDP, optimism and complacency are elevated, signs of malinvestment are appearing, valuations (P/E ratios) rose again after a 25% expansion in 2013 (compared to only +2% annual growth since the late-1980s. As well, so many gauges of valuations are stretched (market cap/GDP, the Shiller P/E ratio and many others).

Above all, I expect the theme of the U.S. as an oasis of prosperity will be tested in 2015-16 as contagion might be a bi**h.

Moreover, given the large array of potentially adverse economic, geopolitical and other outcomes, the markets have grown complacent after a trebling in prices over the last five years.

Finally, my downbeat surprises this year recognize, that as we enter 2015, we should not lose sight of the notion that if pessimism is the friend of the rational buyer, optimism is the enemy of the rational buyer.

My 15 Surprises for 2015

At last, here are my 15 surprises for 2015 (with a strategy that might be employed in order for an investor to profit from the occurrence of these possible improbables).

Surprise No.1 – Faith in central bankers is tested (stocks sink and gold soars).

"Investment bubbles and high animal spirits do not materialize out of thin air. They need extremely favorable economic fundamentals together with free and easy, cheap credit and they need it for at least two or three years. Importantly, they also need serial pleasant surprises in such critical variables as global GNP growth." – Jeremy Grantham

"The highly abnormal is becoming uncomfortably normal. Central banks and markets have been pushing benchmark sovereign yields to extraordinary lows – unimaginable just a few years back. Three-year government bond yields are well below zero in Germany, around zero in Japan and below 1 per cent in the United States. Moreover, estimates of term premia are pointing south again, with some evolving firmly in negative territory. And as all this is happening, global growth – in inflation-adjusted terms – is close to historical averages. There is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine." – Claudio Borio

European QE Backfires: The ECB initiates a sovereign QE in January 2015, but it is modest in scale (relative to expectations) as Germany won't permit a more aggressive strategy. Markets are disappointed with the small size of the ECB's initiative and European banks choose to hold their bonds instead of selling. ECB balance sheet still can't get to 3 trillion euros and the euro actually rallies sharply. Bottom line, QE fails to work (economic growth doesn't accelerate and inflationary expectations don't lift).

Draghi Is Exposed: Mario Draghi is exposed for what he really is: the big kid of which everyone is scared. For some time, no one wanted to fight him (or fade sovereign debt bonds, which would be contra to his policy). But, after the meek January QE, the response changes. He is now seen as the bully who never throws a punch and who always has gotten his way. But at the time of the January QE a medium-sized kid (and a market participant) teases him and Draghi warns him again to stop it. The kid keeps teasing. Draghi the bully takes a swing, it turns out he can't fight and the medium-sized kid whips his butt. From then on, the big kid is feared no more. For some time Draghi has said he will do "whatever it takes," but he never really had to do anything. When he finally gets going and has to act rather than talk, he will expose himself as only a bully and as a weak big kid. Mario Draghi gets fed up with the Germans and returns to Italy (where he was governor of the Bank of Italy between 2006-2011) and becomes the country's president.

Shinzo Abe and Haruhiko Kuroda Resign: Kuroda, an advocate of looser monetary policy, stays on at the Bank of Japan (for most of the year), but the yen enters freefall to 140 vs. the dollar and wage growth lags badly. Japanese people have had enough and, by year end, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Haruhiko Kuroda are forced to resign.

The Fed Is Trapped: The Federal Reserve surprises the markets and hikes the federal funds rate in April 2015. A modest 25-basis-point rise in rates causes such global market turmoil that it is the only hike made all year. The Federal Reserve is now viewed by market participants as completely trapped, as an ah-ha-moment arrives in which there is limited policy flexibility to cope with a steepening downturn in the business cycle in late 2015/early 2016. Stated simply, the bull market in confidence in the Federal Reserve comes to an abrupt halt.

Malinvestment Becomes the It-Word in 2015: Steeped in denial of past mistakes and bathing in the buoyancy of liquidity and the elevation of stock prices in 2014, market participants come to the realization that the world's central bankers in general, and the Fed in particular, once again has taken us down an all-too-familiar and dangerous path that previously set the stage for The Great Decession of 2007-09. It becomes clear that the consequences of unprecedented monetary easing and the repression of interest rates has only invited unproductive investment and speculative carry trades. The impact of a lengthy period of depressed interest rates uncork malinvestment that has percolated and detonates among differing asset classes as the year progresses. Already seen in the deterioration and heightened volatility in commodities (the price of crude, copper, etc.), in widening spreads in the energy high yield (with yields up to 10% today, compared with only 5% a few months ago) and with the average yield on the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) up to 7% (from a low of 5% earlier in 2014), the consequences of financial engineering (zero-interest-rate policy and quantitative easing) and lack of attention to burgeoning country debt loads and central bankers' balance sheets, in addition to inertia on the fiscal front result in rising volatility in the currency markets. Malinvestment in countries like Brazil (where consumer debt has risen by 8x and export accounts have quintupled over the last eight years on the strength of a peaking export boom, in oil and iron ore, so dependent on the China infrastructure story that has now ended) translate in to a deepening economic crisis in Latin America and in other emerging markets.

Then, EU sovereign debt yields, suppressed so long by Draghi's jawboning, begin to rise. Slowly at first and then more rapidly, EU bond prices fall, putting intense pressure on the entire European banking system. (In his greatest score, George Soros makes $2.5 billion shorting German Bunds). The contagion spreads to other region's financial institutions. Shortly after, social media and high valuation stocks get routed and, ultimately, so does the world's stock markets.

As a result of the influences above, the VIX rises above 30. The price of gold soars to $1,800-$2000 and the precious metal is the best-performing asset class for all of 2015.

Strategy: Buy GLD and VIX, Short SPY/QQQ and German Bunds

Surprise No. 2 – The U.S. stock market falters in 2015.

"In a theater, it happened that a fire started offstage. The clown came out to tell the audience. They thought it was a joke and applauded. He told them again and they became more hilarious. This is the way, I suppose, that the world will be destroyed – amid the universal hilarity of wits and wags who think it is all a joke." – Soren Kierkegaard.

Market High Seen in January, Low Seen in December (at Year End): The U.S. stock market experiences a 10%+ loss for the full year. (Note: Not one single strategist in Barron's Survey is calling for a lower stock market in 2015. Projected gains by the sell side are between +6-16%, with a median market gain forecast at +11%). The S&P Index makes its yearly high in the first quarter and closes 2015 at its yearly low as signs of a deepening global economic slowdown intensify in the June-December period.

While earnings expectations disappoint, the real source of the market decline in 2015 is a contraction in valuations (price-earnings multiples) after several years of robust gains. Investors begin to recognize that low interest rates, massive corporate buybacks, the suppression of wages, phony stock option accounting and other factors artificially goosed reported earnings and that earnings power and organic earnings are less than previously thought. So, 2015 is a year in which the relevant ways of measuring overvaluation (market cap/GDP currently at 1.25 vs. 0.70 mean) and the Shiller CAPE ratio (currently at 27x vs. 17x mean) become, well, relevant.

With few having the intestinal fortitude to maintain skepticism and short positions into the unrelenting bull market of 2013-14, there is none of the customary support of short sellers to cover positions and soften the market decline, when it occurs.

Stocks begin to drop in the first half, well before the real economy tapers, underscoring the notion (often forgotten) that the stock market is not the economy.

But by mid-year it becomes clear that U.S. economic growth is unable to thrive without the Fed's support.

Year-over-year profits for the S&P decline modestly in the second half of 2015. Domestic Real GDP growth falls to under +1.5% in the third and fourth quarters.

By year end the market begins to focus on The Recession of 2016-17, which looms ahead in the not so distant future.

Strategy: Short SPY

Surprise No. 3 – The drop in oil prices fails to help the economy.

"In its November 14, 2014 Daily Observations ("The Implications of $75 Oil for the US Economy"), the highly respected hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, LP confirmed that lower oil prices will have a negative impact on the economy. After an initial transitory positive impact on GDP, Bridgewater explains that lower oil investment and production will lead to a drag on real growth of 0.5% of GDP. The firm noted that over the past few years, oil production and investment have been adding about 0.5% to nominal GDP growth but that if oil levels out at $75 per barrel, this would shift to something like -0.7% over the next year, creating a material hit to income growth of 1-1.5%." – Mike Lewitt, The Credit Strategist

Despite the near-universal view that lower oil prices will benefit the economy, the reverse turns out to be the case in 2015 as the economy as a whole may not have more money – it might have less money.

Continued higher costs for food, rent, insurance, education, etc. eat up the benefit of lower oil prices. Some of the savings from lower oil is saved by the consumer who is frightened by slowing domestic growth, a slowdown in job creation and a deceleration in the rate of growth in wages and salaries.

And the unfavorable drain on oil-related capital spending and lower-employment levels serve to further drain the benefits of lower gasoline and heating oil prices.

In The Financial Times, recently, Martin Wolf wrote: "(A) $40 fall in the price of oil represents a shift of roughly $1.3 trillion (close to 2 per cent of world gross output) from producers to consumers annually. This is significant. Since, on balance, consumers are also more likely to spend quickly than producers, this should generate a modest boost to world demand."

But Wolf, and the many other observers, as Mike Lewitt again reminds us, "fail to explain how the $1.3 trillion that has been deducted from the global economy is able to shift from one group to another. "

Surprise No. 4: The mother of all flash crashes.

"America is the 'arch criminal' and 'unchangeable principal enemy' of North Korea." (Dec. 22, 2014)

"America is a 'toothless wolf' and 'the empire of devils."" (March 27, 2010)

"North Korean missiles will reduce Washington, D.C. to 'ashes.'" (August 19, 2014)

"America is a 'group of Satan' bent on destroying Korean religion." (April 22, 2013)

"American 'ideological and cultural poisoning' is undermining socialism around the world." (July 16, 2014)

– Selected quotes from North Korea's state-controlled media

Hackers attack the NYSE and Nasdaq computer apparatus and systems by introducing a flood of fictitious sell orders that result in a flash crash that dwarfs anything ever seen in history.

In the space of one hour the S&P Index falls by more than 5%.

The identity of the attacker goes unknown for several days and it turns out to be North Korea.

Strategy: Buy VIX, Short SPY/QQQ

Surprise No. 5: The great three-decade bull market in bonds is over in 2015.

"Take then thy bond thou thy pound of flesh..." – Portia, The Merchant of Venice

Last year not one strategist saw lower interest rates (though that was my No. 1 Surprise last year). This year, not one strategist expects a spike in interest rates.

In the first half of 2015, European yields and U.S. yields start to converge, in that European yields begin to jump to where the U.S. 10-year yield resides. The failure of Draghi's policy (see Surprise No. 1) will result in an acceleration in the European debt yields rising and in a decay in debt prices. That will mark the end of the great three-decade bond bull market in the U.S. and it will occur as global growth eases.

Strategy: None

Surprise No.6 – China devalues its currency by more than 3% vs. the U.S. dollar.

"It's not like I'm anti-China. I just think it's ridiculous that we allow them to do what they're doing to this country, with the manipulation of the currency, that you write about and understand, and all of the other things that they do." – Donald Trump

For years, China has essentially pegged it's currency to the U.S. dollar. (liberalization meant that a narrow trading range is permitted). With the huge run in the U.S. Dollar, China's currency has appreciated compared with other Asian currencies. As a result, China has lost its manufacturing edge and its trade surplus has all but disappeared. Whether it's a permitted day-to-day weakening, changing the peg from the dollar to a basket of currencies or whether there is an overnight surprise devaluation, China's currency will weaken materially in 2015.

Strategy: None

Surprise No. 7 – Apple (AAPL) becomes the first $1 trillion company.

"There's an old Wayne Gretzky quote that I love. 'I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.' And we've always tried to do that at Apple. Since the very, very beginning. And we always will." – Steve Jobs

Apple's next generation iPhone is seen to likely outsell its latest phone iteration as Re/Code uncovers (and reveals) some amazing and unique new features/applications that are planned for the next generation phone.

I don't know what features it will have or how it will improve design or performance. But I think there is now a near-consensus that it won't and that the next product upgrade cycle is a while away.

So, I predict Apple 2016 estimates rise significantly (to $10/share) and, despite a weak market backdrop, Apple becomes the first $1 trillion dollar market-cap company and the best-performing large-cap in 2015.

Apple becomes the only one-decision stock during the stock market swoon during the last half of 2015. It is a must own.

Strategy: Buy APPL

Surprise No. 8 – Legislation is introduced that allows for repatriation for foreign cash.

"The only difference between death and taxes is that death doesn't get worse every time Congress meets." – Will Rogers

As signs of domestic economic growth fade in the second half of 2015, Congress and the Administration agree on a broad program to repatriate foreign cash at a low tax rate.

The deal briefly rallies the U.S. stock market, but equities soon succumb to a slowing domestic economy and diminishing corporate profit growth.

Strategy: None

Surprise No. 9 – Energy goes from the worst-performing group in 2014 to the best-performing group in the first half of 2015 and then falls back later in the year.

"Oil vey!" – Kass Daily Diary term

Energy stocks are on a roller coaster in 2015.

As the price of crude oil rises steadily (towards $65 a barrel) in early 2015, the energy sector (which was among the worst in 2014) becomes the best market group in the first half of the year. Slowing global economic growth during the last half of the year leads to profit-taking in the energy sector as the price of crude oil closes the year at under $50 and at its lowest price in 2015.

In a surprise move, the president signs approval for the Keystone Pipeline in the second half of the year.

Strategy: Buy oil stocks in first six months of the year, sell/short mid-year.

Surprise No. 10 – More chaos in the Democratic Party.

"Mothers all want their sons to grow up to be president, but they don't want them to become politicians in the process." – John F. Kennedy

Sen. Elizabeth Warren pushes Secretary Hillary Clinton so far to the left that she loses independent voters, though she easily gains the Democratic nomination for president.

Former President George H.W. Bush passes away during the first half of the year and Governor Jeb Bush immediately declares his candidacy.

By the end of 2015, Jeb Bush is well ahead in the polls and is a big favorite to win the presidency in 2016.

Strategy: None

Surprise No. 11 – Food inflation accelerates after Russia halts wheat exports.

"As life's pleasures go, food is second only to sex. Except for salami and eggs. Now that's better than sex, but only if the salami is thickly sliced." – Alan King

Russian turmoil continues and Putin decides to halt exports of wheat again to keep as much homeland as possible, resulting in a price spike in wheat, but also corn and soybeans. This price rise, on top of U.S. food inflation that is already running higher, offsets the consumer benefit of still-relatively-low gasoline and heating oil prices.

Strategy: None

Surprise No. 12 – Home prices fall in the second half of 2015.

"I told my mother-in-law that my house was her house and she said, 'Get the hell off my property.'" – Joan Rivers

Under the weight of reduced home affordability, still-low household formation gains and continued pressure on real incomes, home prices fall in 2015.

Builders lose pricing power.

Strategy: Short homebuilders.

Surprise No. 13 – Individual and sector market surprises.

"Those who are easily shocked should be shocked more often." – Mae West

Bank Stocks Fall – Though bank stocks have been recent market leaders, the weight of a flattening yield curve, still-tepid loan demand and an implosion in the European banking system make the sector among the worst market performers. Moreover, a major cyber attack against Bank of America (BAC) that actually destroys a percentage of customer records further diminishes enthusiasm for the group.

Twitter Feeding – Carl Icahn, calling it his "new Netflix," discloses a 9.9% position in Twitter. This stimulates a bidding war between Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) to acquire the company. Google wins the battle and pays $60 a share for Twitter.

Volatility Rising – The VIX rises to over 30 in the second half of the year.

Google Institutes a Share Buyback and Shaves Capital Spending – After a lackluster performance in 2014, Google's management reverses course on its previously outsized capital spending program on non-core businesses and becomes more shareholder friendly. The company dials back spending and institutes a stock buyback program.

Corporate Inefficiency in Large-Cap Technology Targets Activist Investors –- Two hedge funds establish a filing position in Cisco (CSCO) and force Chairman John Chambers out. The new CEO announces a large special dividend and a massive stock buyback and a cutback to the employees' too-generous stock option plan. More than 10% of the workforce is laid off and Cisco's shares soar. Several other tech companies are targeted.
Strategy: Long AAPL TWTR, CSCO, VIX, GOOGL and short banks

Surprise No. 14 – Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) makes its largest acquisition in history.

"When I was 15 years old, I read an articls about Ivan Boesky, the well-known takeover trader – turned out years later it was all on inside information! But before that came to light, he was very successful, very flamboyant. And I thought, 'This is what I want to do.' So I'm 15 years old, I decide I'm going to Wall Street." – Karen Finerman

During the depths of the market's swoon in the later part of the year, Warren Buffett scoops up his largest acquisition ever. The $55+ billion acquisition is not in his customary comfort zone (a consumer goods company), but rather the deal is for a company in the energy, retail or construction/equipment areas.

Strategy: None

Surprise No. 15 – A derivative blowup precipitates an abrupt market drop.

"I view derivatives as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system." – Warren Buffett

The $300 trillion holdings of derivatives by the U.S. banking industry has been all but forgotten.

The four-largest U.S. banks account for $240 trillion of that total, dwarfing their combined $750 billion in statutory capital! This sort of exposure in which notional derivatives are more than 300x the banks' net worth, is, as my friend The Credit Strategist's Mike Lewitt has written, "would be laughable if the consequences of a financial accident were not so potentially catastrophic."

To make matters worse, the passage of the $1.1 trillion spending bill passed this month (written by lobbyists and voted on by bought-and-paid-for legislators who probably neither read nor understood the complex spending bill) has kept taxpayers on the hook –through the FDIC – for those derivatives (what Warren Buffett previously called "financial weapons of mass destruction.")

On any measure, the sheer size of these derivative portfolios pose potential risk to the world's financial stability. What we have learned from the past cycle is how opaque the exposure really is and how stupid and avaricious our bankers really are when allowed to venture into territories of leverage.

Whether it is energy derivatives or some other asset class, a derivative blowup in 2015 will serve to preserve the wise words of Benjamin Disraeli (who served twice as Great Britain's Prime Minister) that "what we have learned from history is that we haven't learned from history."

It will also harm our markets, once again.

Strategy: Short SPY
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Re: Predicciones 2015

Mensajepor Dalamar » 01 Ene 2015 20:34

Aqui tenemos las de Doug Kass:

China's Real GDP growth falls below 5% in 2015 as economic growth decelerates markedly in the second half of the year.

An accounting "discrepancy" is found at Alibaba (BABA). The shares plummet and the hedge fund community feels the pain.

Under pressure from suppliers and a falling stock price, Ron Johnson is installed as CEO ofSears Holdings (SHLD).

George Soros makes $2.5 billion by shorting German Bunds.

The price of crude oil drops below $40 a barrel in the second half of 2015.

The consumer price index turns negative (year over year).

IBM (IBM) whiffs and the share price drops below $125 a share. Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A) suffers a near-$4 billion loss (on paper). At Buffett's suggestion, senior management is replaced.

Warren Buffett announces his successor.

Uber goes public at a $50 billion capitalization. The share price never exceeds the IPO price in 2015.

Monitise's (MONIF) subscription adds far outpace expectations this year. (The shares double in price).
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Re: Predicciones 2015

Mensajepor Dalamar » 04 Ene 2015 07:41

Según la última encuesta de BoA Merrill Lynch, los mercados de valores de Alemania y España son los favoritos para los gestores profesionales de cara al 2015 en Europa.
Francia e Italia son con los que se muestran más negativos.

El CIO de Julius Baer espera ver crecimientos abultados en emergentes, en concreto en países como China e India y regiones de África, que “sigue siendo el ganador silencioso de la globalización. La mayoría del continente seguirá mostrando las tasas de crecimiento más altas del mundo, aunque parte de unos niveles mucho menores, lo que explica que la evolución de África no importe tanto al mundo como debería, teniendo en cuenta sus impresionantes dinámicas”, asegura.
Burkhard Varnholt, CIO and Head Investment Solutions Group, Julius Baer


The surprises of 2014… and beyond

· Geopolitics was surely full of them. Neither the conflict on the Crimea nor the saber-rattling in the South Sea were to be expected. But unfortunately, these tensions are unlikely to be the last. Geopolitics will continue to create both significant challenges and opportunities for issuers and investors of financial securities.
· Surely the spectacular collapse of oil-prices was also a surprise by speed and magnitude.
· Whether it will be a benefit or a drag on global growth will remain the surprise for 2015.

Regions that will be growth winners next year
· Talking energy: clearly the biggest consumers will profit from an unexpected tailwind, those will obviously be the most industrialized countries.
· However, in absolute growth projections, Asia will still provide most of the heavy lifting. China remains the world’s biggest economy (in purchasing power terms) and will continue to advance fast. India should do well, too and so should much of South East Asia. In South America, we see growth dynamics and scale of the economy, while further north, we expect both the US as well as Canada to do well, economically speaking. In Europe, there will be slim pickings but arguably not as awful as many fear. That’s courtesy to cheap oil and a bit of economic tailwind plus some good reforms in the southern periphery. Africa remains the silent winner of globalization. Most of the continent will continue to display the world’s highest growth rates, albeit from much lower levels, which is why Africa growth still doesn’t matter as much to the world as the impressive dynamics would suggest. For Russia and the Middle East, they risk being mired in a dangerous spiral of conflict and escalation.

Views on fixed income for 2015

The most important view is, that USD long yields will remain lower for longer. They may well remain depressed until 2020 as structural excess demand from pension funds and insurance funds as well as continued financial repression in the west weigh heavily on them. And frankly, there is pretty much the same argument for maintaining an identical view on European as well as Japanese yields. As long as most other big currencies are directly or indirectly pegged to these, this is essentially a global view.

The best asset for 2015

Plain and simple: equities. They offer the highest risk-premium and the best position for capital providers in today’s world.

Biggest unknowns/risks

In no particular order: Geopolitics. Epidemics and related scares. Monetary- and economic policy-experiments. Competitive currency devaluation. Hysteria and herding in financial markets combined with the media exacerbating such cycles.
Adjuntos
Previsiones2015.gif
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Re: Predicciones 2015

Mensajepor Dalamar » 08 Ene 2015 20:28

Byron Wien, vicepresidente de Blackstone, está con justicia entre los personajes más influyentes de los mercados financieros. Son famosas sus predicciones anuales, que tienen un elevado nivel de acierto.
Para 2015 ha realizado una lista con las 10 posibles sorpresas que se pueden dar en el ejercicio y que tendrían un efecto notable en los mercados. Veamos cuales son:
1. La Reserva Federal elevará los tipos de interés a corto plazo mucho antes de la mitad del año, alentada por los datos de empleo y la fuerte mejora del crecimiento del Producto Interior Bruto.
El fin de la política monetaria acomodaticia y el inicio del aumento de tipos precipitan una corrección de la renta variable. La curva de tipos se aplana.
2, Aumenta el terrorismo cibernético: Hackers invaden las cuentas personales y corporativas de un importante banco y la Reserva Federal ordena a la institución que suspenda sus operaciones durante cinco días hábiles, mientras se verifican la exactitud de sus saldos. Se movilizan distintos departamentos y agencias del gobierno para lidiar con el problema.
3. El rally de fin de año en el mercado de valores estadounidense continúa, mientras que el mercado se prepara para un fuerte comportamiento en 2015. Una economía en crecimiento, impulsada por la vivienda, los gastos de capital y el incremento de ganancias, permite que el S&P 500 aumente un 15% durante el año, superando la renta variable de la mayoría de los principales países industrializados.
4. Mario Draghi, finalmente, comienza a expandir agresivamente el balance del Banco Central Europeo mediante la compra de deuda soberana, hipotecas y bonos corporativos. A pesar de esta expansión, Europa vuelve a caer en una recesión grave. Alemania está particularmente débil por la reducción de la demanda de los distintos socios comerciales y el importante impacto en sus exportaciones. Los responsables políticos europeos no logran barajar la opción del gasto fiscal, lo cual podría cambiar la economía. Las acciones europeas bajan. Políticamente Europa avanza peligrosamente hacia los extremos.
5. Las medidas de Awe ya no funcionan en Japón. La recesión que comenzó en el tercer trimestre de 2014 continúa a lo largo de 2015, a pesar del mayor estímulo fiscal y monetario, y la suspensión de la segunda subida de impuestos sobre las ventas. El Nikkei se mantiene plano.
6. China informa de que ya no está creciendo al 7% y que necesita más estímulo fiscal y monetario para no sufrir un aterrizaje duro. También reconoce que debe reequilibrar la economía hacia el consumidor y alejarse de la inversión basada en el crédito a las empresas y de la infraestructura de propiedad estatal. Una menor tasa de creación de empleo provoca protestas ciudadanas, pero se contienen sin excesiva violencia.
7. La caída en el precio del petróleo por fin tiene un impacto en Irán. El país depende de la venta de crudo para compensar el impacto de las sanciones. La debilidad económica como resultado de la inesperada caída del petróleo finalmente obliga a una actitud conciliadora por parte de los negociadores nucleares. La presión para cesar de desarrollar armas nucleares viene del propio pueblo iraní, que busca más oportunidades económicas. Un acuerdo para retroceder en su programa nuclear es recogido por las bolsas del mundo de forma positiva.
8. Brent cae hacia los $ 40. El bajo precio del petróleo crudo, que continúa durante toda la primera parte del año, tiene un impacto importante en Rusia. Se firma el acuerdo de paz con Ucrania, dando al este del país una autonomía sustancial, pero garantizando la soberanía del resto del país. Putin intenta recuperar el respeto de la comunidad internacional, pero el país se tambalea por sus problemas económicos. La ciudad rusa finalmente se vuelve en su contra. Su tasa de aprobación se desploma y dimite a final de año.
Durante la segunda mitad del año el West Texas y el crudo brent vuelven por encima de los 70 dólares barril tras el aumento de la demanda.
9. La fuerte caída a finales de 2014 del mercado de alto rendimiento, como resultado de la caída del petróleo, otorga una gran oportunidad de compra. El diferencial entre los bonos de alto rendimiento y los bonos del Tesoro se reducen a la mitad.
10. Los republicanos incrementan su presión sobre el presidente Obama al tener el control del Senado y la Cámara de representantes. Se aprueban importantes leyes, como grandes inversiones en infraestructuras. Jeb Bush se postula como el próximo presidente de los EE.UU.
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Re: Predicciones 2015

Mensajepor Dalamar » 13 Ene 2015 12:30

Teis Knuthsen, CIO Saxo Private Bank - Lunes, 12 de Enero

El 2014 fue un mercado alcista defensivo, con retornos mayores de lo que se esperaba. Es probable que los activos de riesgo aumenten en 2015. Una sorpresa económica positiva junto con la flexibilización cuantitativa del BCE podrían hacer que los mercados de capitales europeos crezcan más del 20%

El progreso económico junto con una continua política monetaria de expansión debería generar ganancias para los activos de riesgo en el 2015, principalmente en las acciones.

Parece probable que este año los resultados conducirán a los mercados de valores (en lugar de la continua expansión de E/P) y las ganancias generales en los precios pueden ser más moderadas que en los años anteriores. Esto se aplica principalmente a EE.UU., mientras que los mercados de valores europeos deberían poder aumentar significativamente si la recuperación económica iguala a los esfuerzos del BCE.

Para ambos mercados, los sectores cíclicos deberían presentar mejores rendimientos que los defensivos. Por el momento, la exposición a los mercados emergentes debería mantenerse al mínimo, enfocándose en los mercados asiáticos, particularmente China. Es prematuro ingresar a Rusia, ya que la crisis financiera continuará pronunciándose.
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Re: Predicciones 2015

Mensajepor Dalamar » 13 Ene 2015 19:17

John Mauldin a cinco años vista:

Seven Significant Changes for the Next Five Years

Let’s look at what I think are six inexorable trends or waves that will each have a major impact in its own right but that when taken together will amount to a tsunami of change for the global economy.

1. Japan will continue its experiment with the most radical quantitative easing attempted by a major country in the history of the world… and the experiment is getting dangerous. The Bank of Japan is effectively exporting the island nation’s deflation to its trade competitors like Germany, China, and South Korea and inviting a currency war that could shake the world. I’ve been saying this for years now, but the story took a nasty turn on Halloween Day, when the Bank of Japan announced it was greatly expanding and changing the mix of its asset purchases. The results have been downright scary, and a major slide in the JPY/USD exchange rate is almost certain over the next five years. I give it a 90% probability. All this while the population of Japan shrinks before our very eyes.

2. Europe is headed for a crisis at least as severe as the Grexit scare was in 2012 – and for the resulting run-up in interest rates and a sovereign debt scare in the peripheral countries. After all these years of struggle, the structural flaws in the EMU’s design remain; and now major economies like Italy and France are headed for trouble. In the very near future we will finally know the answer to the question, “Is the euro a currency or an experiment?” The changes required to answer that question will be wrenching and horrifically expensive. There are no good answers, only difficult choices about who pays how much and to whom. Again, I see the deepening of the Eurozone crisis as a 90% probability.

3. China is approaching its day of reckoning as it tries to reduce its dependency on debt in its bid for growth, while creating a consumer society. The world is simply not prepared for China to experience an outright “hard landing” or recession, but I think there is a 70% probability that it will do so within the next five years. And the probability that China will suffer either a hard landing OR a long period of Japanese-style stagnation (in the event that the Chinese government is forced to absorb nonperforming loans to prevent a debt crisis) is over 95%. To be sure, it is still quite possible that the Chinese economy will be significantly larger in 2025 (ten years from now) than it is today, but realizing that potential largely depends on President Xi Jinping’s ability to accomplish an extremely difficult task: deleveraging the debt overhang that threatens the country’s MASSIVE financial system while rebalancing the national economy to a mor e sustainable growth model (either through either a vast expansion of China’s export market or the rapid development of “new economy” sectors like technology, services, and consumption; or both). This will not be the end of China, which I’m quite bullish on over the very long term, but such transitions are never easy. Even given this rather stark forecast, it is still likely (in my opinion) that the Chinese economy will be 20 to 25% bigger as 2020 opens than it is today; and every other major economy in the world (including the US) would be thrilled to have such growth. At the very least, though, China’s slowdown and rebalancing is going to put pressure on commodity exporters, which are generally emerging markets plus Australia, Canada, and Norway.

4. All of the above will tend to be bullish for the dollar, which will make dollar-denominated debt in emerging-market countries more difficult to pay back. And given the amount of debt that has been created in the last few years, it is likely that we’ll see a series of crises in emerging-market countries, along with an uncomfortably high level of risk of setting off an LTCM-style global financial shock. My colleague Worth Wray spoke about this new era of volatile FX flows and growing risk of capital flight from emerging markets at my Strategic Investor Conference last May, and he has continued to remind us of those risks in recent months (“A Scary Story for Emerging Markets” and “Why the World Needs the US Economy to Struggle”). Now that Russia has tumbled into a full-fledged currency crisis with serious signs of contagion, Worth’s prediction is already playing out, and I would assign an 80 to 90% probability that it will continue to do so, as a function of (1) the rising US dollar and a reversal in cross-border capital flows, (2) falling commodity prices, or (3) both. This massive wave is going to create a lot of opportunities for courageous investors who are ready to surf when countries are cheap.

5. I do not believe that the secular bear market in the United States that I began to describe in 1999 has ended. Secular bull markets simply do not begin from valuations like those we have today. Either we began a secular bull market in 2009, or we have one more major correction in front of us. Obviously, I think it is the latter. It has been some time since I’ve discussed the difference between secular bull and bear markets and cyclical bull and bear markets, and I will briefly touch on the topic today and go into much more detail in later letters. For US-focused investors, this is of major importance. The secular bear is not something to be scared of but simply something to be played. It also offers a great deal of opportunity. If I am right, then the next major leg down will bring on the end of the secular bear and the beginning of a very long-term secular bull. We will all get to be geniuses in the 2020s and perhaps even before the last ha lf of this decade runs out. Won’t that be fun? Let’s call the end of the secular bear a 90% probability in five years and move on.

6. Finally, the voters of the United States are going to have to make a decision about the direction they want to take the country. We can either opt for growth, which will mean a new tax and regulatory regime, or we can double down on the current direction and become Europe and Japan. I’ve traveled to both Europe and Japan, and they’re both pleasant-enough places to live, but I wouldn’t want to be a citizen of either Japan or the Eurozone for the rest of this decade. (I particularly love Italy, but it is beginning to resemble a basket case, with last year’s optimistic drive for reforms seemingly stalled.)

However, I would rather live and work and invest in a high-growth country, with opportunities all around me, a country where we reduce income inequality by increasing wealth and opportunities at the lower end of the income scale instead of trying to legislate parity by increasing taxes and imposing government-mandated wealth redistribution, which slows growth and squelches opportunity for everyone.

A restructuring of the US tax and regulatory regime does not mean a capitulation to the wealthy, big banks, or big business. Properly conceived and constructed, it will allow the renewal of the middle class and result in higher income for all. Sadly, it is not clear to me that either the Republican or Democratic parties are up to the task of making the difficult political decisions necessary. They each have constituencies that tend to opt for the status quo. But I see hope on both sides of the political spectrum that change is possible. The course they set will give us an idea where we will want to focus our portfolios in the decade of the ’20s. It is a 100% probability that we will have to make a decision. It is less than 50% that we will make the right one – or at least the one that I think is the right one.

7.  We have entered the Age of Transformation. We’re going to see the development of new technologies that will simply astound us – from increasingly capable robots and other applications of AI to huge breakthroughs in biotechnology. The winners are going to be those who identified the truly transformational technologies early on in their development and invested wisely. While riskier (potentially far riskier) than most of your investments should be, a basket of new-technology stocks should be considered for the growth part of your portfolio. I see the Age of Transformation as a 100% probability.

Just for the record, I also see a continuation of the global deflationary environment and a slowing of the velocity of money until we have some type of resolution concerning sovereign debt. Central banks will continue to try to solve the “crises” I mentioned above with monetary policy, but monetary policy will simply not be enough to stem the tide. Central banks can paddle as hard as they like into the waves of change, but they cannot reverse their powerful flow.
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Re: Predicciones 2015

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Ene 2015 09:43

Estamos en la parte del Ciclo Maduro (no final del Ciclo). Las Bolsas debería comportarse mejor

13 Jan 2015

Veamos.... en la primera parte del ciclo de crédito es este y no las bolsas el que sale más beneficiado; en la segunda parte son ambos, crédito y bolsas, los que se aprecian en un contexto de mayor optimismo económico; en la tercera parte es la bolsa la que lo hace mejor, con el crédito manteniendo niveles o comenzando a mostrar indicios de primas demasiado bajas y/o exceso de oferta para la demanda existente; en la última fase, con precios de activos demasiado elevados y mayor riesgo macro, podemos ver como vuelve la aversión al riesgo entre los inversores ¿Dónde estamos? Parece evidente: en la tercera fase. ¿Qué no lo ven tan claro? El Mundo, ya lo saben, es complicado. Pero, nosotros tenemos una carta comodín como serían los bancos centrales. Y pueden ser muy persuasivos. Con todo, al final la clave es la recuperación. ¿Realmente piensan que la recuperación económica mundial está en peligro? Estoy convencido que una parte significativa tiene dudas a la hora de responder a esta pregunta, lo que contrasta con el optimismo casi obsesivo que nos ha dominado en los dos últimos años.

Y sin embargo, el crecimiento se siente en cada dato publicado. Desigual y débil, es cierto. Pero, al final crecimiento. Nosotros esperamos que el mundo crezca a ritmos del 3.2 % este ejercicio desde el 2.7 %. Y admito que tengo la sensación de que lo estamos infravalorando, considerando la caída de los precios de commodites. Especialmente el descenso de los precios del crudo. Aunque, como todos los ajustes estructurales, a corto plazo puede generar tensiones que deben ser asimiladas lo antes posible. Especialmente en los mercados financieros.

Pero, de nuevo, para amortiguarlas tenemos a los bancos centrales .Pero, ¿y la volatilidad? Los finales de ciclo del crédito (de crédito, económicos o de cualquier tipo) son coherentes con un escenario de mayor volatilidad. Pero, ¿un cambio tan brusco? Sin duda, es demasiado fuerte pasar de niveles mínimos incluso anteriores a la Crisis a casi doblarse de forma más reciente. Aunque siempre se puede hablar de una normalización, tras un exceso de confianza (o de infravaloración del/de los riesgo/s) que se han prolongado durante demasiado tiempo.

Pero, también, parte de este fuerte repunte de la volatilidad puede ser un ejemplo más de las tensiones a las que me refería antes con respecto al desplome de los precios del crudo. Dudas sobre la situación de los países exportadores y dudas, más recientes, sobre la salud financiera de las petroleras de los países desarrollados. Pero, sin considerar por el momento tanto el mayor margen de maniobra de los bancos centrales con respecto a las medidas extraordinarias de liquidez como también al infravalorar el potencial impacto positivo de estos menores costes en la renta disponible de las familias. Buena parte de este análisis lo pudimos leer hace poco en las Actas del último FOMC. Para mí, meramente descriptivas del escenario actual. Para otros, muy informativas sobre el aplazamiento de hecho de cualquier inicio en la normalización monetaria. Veremos.

En definitiva, liquidez y crecimiento: ¿qué más queremos para que vuelva el apetito por el riesgo desde los inversores? Es sólo cuestión de tiempo. ¿Y los riesgos a futuro? Claro que los hay. Y sin duda se van a traducir en episodios temporales de tensión en los mercados. Realmente es esto lo que tenemos que temer y no tanto la Crisis política que sigue desarrollando en muchas zonas. Es pronto en mi opinión para que tenga un desenlace, un accidente, que se nos escape de las manos. Comenzando por Grecia.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
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Re: Predicciones 2015

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Ene 2015 15:10

Deutsche Bank prevé un Ibex en 12.000 puntos y la prima en 75 puntos en 2015
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Re: Predicciones 2015

Mensajepor Dalamar » 16 Ene 2015 07:53

Howard Gold, uno de los analistas financieros con mayor tasa de acierto en sus predicciones anuales, detalla en Market Watch tres lugares donde estaría invertido en 2015 y tres lugares en los que no. Estos son ambos:

Tres lugares donde estar invertidos

1. Acciones de tecnología y cuidados de la salud en EE.UU.: Fueron dos de los mejores sectores en 2014 al presentar una buena combinación de estabilidad, sólidos dividendos y compañías innovadoras. El sector de cuidados de la salud se beneficiará durante años de factores demográficos encontrándose en un mercado alcista de ciclo desde 2011. El sector tecnológico lo hace bien en las fases tardías de los ciclos económicos. Howard Gold recomienda valores como: Intel, Oracle, Microsoft, Merck, Johnson & Johnson, Apple, Gilead Sciences, Celgene.

2. Bonos municipales: Los inversores han ido lejos en busca de rentabilidad, pero han evitado durante mucho tiempo una de las mejoras formas de conseguirla: Los bonos municipales de EE.UU.
Asustados por el default en Detroit y las equivocadas predicciones de la analista Meredith Whitney, los bonos municipales se han comportado mal en el pasado reciente. Sin embargo, las finanzas están mejorando de forma espectacular. Los gobiernos estatales y locales han recortado más de 600.000 puestos de trabajo desde 2009, y ahora estados antes derrochadores están mostrando una clara prudencia fiscal.
Recomendaría entrar en bonos municipales a través de ETFs. ([b]Tengo Buscar...[/b])

3. Los bonos corporativos con grado de inversión. Es demasiado tarde para subirse al barco de los bonos del Tesoro, pero sí podemos comprar fondos de renta fija privada de vencimiento a medio plazo de grandes compañías. Los blue chips tienen fuertes balances con miles de millones de dólares en efectivo y escaso riesgo de impago. La madurez en el medio plazo da cierta protección contra el aumento de tipos del BCE.

Tres lugares donde no estar invertidos


1. Mercados emergentes de acciones y bonos. Durante años he venido advirtiendo de los mercados de acciones emergentes. Muchos mercados emergentes, incluyendo todos los BRIC con excepción de la India, están en mercados bajistas seculares. Rusia es sólo el peor ejemplo.
Los bonos de mercados emergentes se están uniendo al de valores en esa tendencia bajista. La caída del petróleo está debilitando las economías de estos países, cuyos activos seguirán sufriendo.

Por otro lado, la apreciación del dólar puede causar una contracción del flujo de caja de las compañías de estos mercados emergentes, cuya deuda está denominada en dólares en sus tres cuartas partes. Se incrementa el riesgo de una fuerte corrección.

2. Productos básicos y materias primas. Hablando de mercados bajistas seculares, las materias primas se encuentran en uno de los más fuertes. El precio del petróleo ha caído un 60% desde los máximos de junio ante el enorme exceso de oferta de Irak, Rusia y el petróleo de esquisto de EE.UU. La demanda es moderada ante la mediocre recuperación económica global.
Los precios de materias primas como el cobre y el mineral de hierro se han desplomado a medida que China desplaza su economía a una basada en el consumo interno. Este movimiento bajista en las materias primas es probable que continúe en el medio plazo.

3. El oro y la plata. Me sorprende que el oro se haya mantenido tan bien tras las fuertes correcciones del petróleo y de los productos básicos. Pero será difícil que siga aguantando si se siguen produciendo presiones deflacionistas en Europa y Japón, combinado con un dólar más fuerte e inevitables subidas en los tipos de interés de EE.UU.
Creo que la combinación de todos estos factores llevará al oro alrededor de los 800 dólares la onza.
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Re: Predicciones 2015

Mensajepor Dalamar » 19 Ene 2015 19:55

El oro será el activo estrella en 2015
Steen Jakobsen es economista jefe de Saxo Bank desde marzo de 2011.
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