Sell in May and go away

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Dalamar
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Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: Sell in May and go away

Mensajepor Dalamar » 12 May 2016 07:14

Un articulo muy interesante...

So with an average utility stocks, you are better off holding the stock during summer than selling it. Still, most of the gains occur during the winter months.

Hmm… So if you should hold on to your utility stocks, does that mean there are sectors where the sell-in-may effect is even worse? The answer is yes! Otherwise the Sell in May effect would be known as the Hold and Underperform Mildly in May effect. First up, we highlight tech stocks (summer first, winter second).

With technology stocks, holding all such stocks in the summer months would have lost you 50% of your money! Though, there are sectors that are even worse during the summer…

When holding transportation stocks only in the summer, you lost a 64% of your initial value. Eeeks! In fact, when we ran our simulation, it was a bad idea to hold stocks in the following sectors: Technology, Transportation, Basic Materials, Energy, Industrials, or Consumer Cyclicals sectors. All of these sectors distinguished themselves by actually losing money during the summer. It almost seems like there’s a way to measure the seasonality of an industry or group. If so, we can sort our portfolios to avoid the seasonal industries, market cap segments, etc when the season is wrong.

Fuente: https://www.equitieslab.com/yet-another ... maga-post/
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girado007
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Registrado: 16 Ene 2013 10:40

Re: Sell in May and go away

Mensajepor girado007 » 12 May 2016 08:27

Si la hipótesis fuera cierta, se podría deducir que el sector turístico, muy estacional(https://www.google.com/finance?cid=13485012), debería tener un comportamiento contrario. Me he ido al primer índice que he encontrado y no parece que se pueda sacar esa conclusión:

https://www.google.com/finance?cid=14338860

Diría que el efecto es observable, pero la hipótesis es mas falsa que Soros comprando Telefónicas.

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Dalamar
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Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: Sell in May and go away

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 May 2016 09:20

Yo lo que veo es un backtesting, sobre tener determinados sectores en verano, eso no implica que tenga que funcionar para todos los sectores, dice eso?

Basicamente lo que hay es una observacion de que ciertos sectores funcionan mejor en determinadas epocas del año, de ahi ya se puede investigar cual es el motivo, si es probable o no que se repita en el futuro... etc...
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