Coches sin conductor

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Dalamar
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Coches sin conductor

Mensajepor Dalamar » 22 Feb 2015 20:08

Parece que ya falta poco para que sea una realidad, y tenemos que empezar a pensar en las implicaciones que va a tener:

I have spent quite a bit of time lately thinking about autonomous cars, and I wanted to summarize my current thoughts and predictions. Most people – experts included – seem to think that the transition to driverless vehicles will come slowly over the coming few decades, and that large hurdles exist for widespread adoption. I believe that this is significant underestimation. Autonomous cars will be commonplace by 2025 and have a near monopoly by 2030, and the sweeping change they bring will eclipse every other innovation our society has experienced.

They will cause unprecedented job loss and a fundamental restructuring of our economy, solve large portions of our environmental problems, prevent tens of thousands of deaths per year, save millions of hours with increased productivity, and create entire new industries that we cannot even imagine from our current vantage point.

The transition is already beginning to happen. Elon Musk, Tesla Motor’s CEO, says that their 2015 models will be able to self-drive 90 percent of the time.1 And the major automakers aren’t far behind – according to Bloomberg News, GM’s 2017 models will feature “technology that takes control of steering, acceleration and braking at highway speeds of 70 miles per hour or in stop-and-go congested traffic.”2 Both Google3 and Tesla4 predict that fully-autonomous cars – what Musk describes as “true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination” – will be available to the public by 2020.

How it will unfold

Industry experts think that consumers will be slow to purchase autonomous cars – while this may be true, it is a mistake to assume that this will impede the transition. Morgan Stanley’s research shows that cars are driven just 4% of the time,5 which is an astonishing waste considering that the average cost of car ownership is nearly $9,000 per year.6 Next to a house, an automobile is the second most expensive asset that most people will ever buy – it is no surprise that ride sharing services like Uber and car sharing services like Zipcar are quickly gaining popularity as an alternative to car ownership. It is now more economical to use a ride sharing service if you live in a city and drive less than 10,000 miles per year.7 The impact on private car ownership is enormous: a UC-Berkeley study showed that vehicle ownership among car sharing users was cut in half.8 The car purchasers of the future will not be you and me – cars will be purchased and operated by ride sharing and car sharing companies.

And current research confirms that we would be eager to use autonomous cars if they were available. A full 60% of US adults surveyed stated that they would ride in an autonomous car9 , and nearly 32% said they would not continue to drive once an autonomous car was available instead.10 But no one is more excited than Uber – drivers take home at least 75% of every fare.11 It came as no surprise when CEO Travis Kalanick recently stated that Uber will eventually replace all of its drivers with self-driving cars.12

A Columbia University study suggested that with a fleet of just 9,000 autonomous cars, Uber could replace every taxi cab in New York City13 – passengers would wait an average of 36 seconds for a ride that costs about $0.50 per mile.14 Such convenience and low cost will make car ownership inconceivable, and autonomous, on-demand taxis – the ‘transportation cloud’ – will quickly become dominant form of transportation – displacing far more than just car ownership, it will take the majority of users away from public transportation as well. With their $41 billion valuation,15 replacing all 171,000 taxis16 in the United States is well within the realm of feasibility – at a cost of $25,000 per car, the rollout would cost a mere $4.3 billion.

Fallout

The effects of the autonomous car movement will be staggering. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that the number of vehicles on the road will be reduced by 99%, estimating that the fleet will fall from 245 million to just 2.4 million vehicles.17

Disruptive innovation does not take kindly to entrenched competitors – like Blockbuster, Barnes and Noble, Polaroid, and dozens more like them, it is unlikely that major automakers like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota will survive the leap. They are geared to produce millions of cars in dozens of different varieties to cater to individual taste and have far too much overhead to sustain such a dramatic decrease in sales. I think that most will be bankrupt by 2030, while startup automakers like Tesla will thrive on a smaller number of fleet sales to operators like Uber by offering standardized models with fewer options.

Ancillary industries such as the $198 billion automobile insurance market,18 $98 billion automotive finance market,19 $100 billion parking industry,20 and the $300 billion automotive aftermarket21 will collapse as demand for their services evaporates. We will see the obsolescence of rental car companies, public transportation systems, and, good riddance, parking and speeding tickets. But we will see the transformation of far more than just consumer transportation: self-driving semis, buses, earth movers, and delivery trucks will obviate the need for professional drivers and the support industries that surround them.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics lists that 884,000 people are employed in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing, and an additional 3.02 million in the dealer and maintenance network.22 Truck, bus, delivery, and taxi drivers account for nearly 6 million professional driving jobs. Virtually all of these 10 million jobs will be eliminated within 10-15 years, and this list is by no means exhaustive.

But despite the job loss and wholesale destruction of industries, eliminating the needs for car ownership will yield over $1 trillion in additional disposable income – and that is going to usher in an era of unprecedented efficiency, innovation, and job creation.

A view of the future

Morgan Stanley estimates that a 90% reduction in crashes would save nearly 30,000 lives and prevent 2.12 million injuries annually.23 Driverless cars do not need to park – vehicles cruising the street looking for parking spots account for an astounding 30% of city traffic,24 not to mention that eliminating curbside parking adds two extra lanes of capacity to many city streets. Traffic will become nonexistent, saving each US commuter 38 hours every year – nearly a full work week.25 As parking lots and garages, car dealerships, and bus stations become obsolete, tens of millions of square feet of available prime real estate will spur explosive metropolitan development.

The environmental impact of autonomous cars has the potential to reverse the trend of global warming and drastically reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Passenger cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, and minivans account for 17.6% of greenhouse gas emissions26 – a 90% reduction of vehicles in operation would reduce our overall emissions by 15.9%. As most autonomous cars are likely to be electric, we would virtually eliminate the 134 billion of gasoline used each year in the US alone.27 And while recycling 242 million vehicles will certainly require substantial resources, the surplus of raw materials will decrease the need for mining.

But perhaps most exciting for me are the coming inventions, discoveries, and creation of entire new industries that we cannot yet imagine.
I dream of the transportation cloud: near-instantly available, point-to-point travel. Ambulances that arrive to the scene within seconds. A vehicle-to-grid distributed power system. A merging of city and suburb as commuting becomes fast and painless. Dramatically improved mobility for the disabled. On-demand rental of nearly anything you can imagine.
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Re: Coches sin conductor

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Sep 2016 17:29

Uber ya esta en ello...

Uber’s robotic taxis have finally taken to the road—but they’re not yet advanced enough to go it alone. MIT Technology Review’s Will Knight took a ride in one of the vehicles. “The car performed well in many difficult situations—reacting to pedestrians darting into the road, for example,” he writes. “However, several times the person behind the wheel needed to take control: once so the car didn’t become stuck behind a truck, and once to avoid another vehicle making a sudden turn.” And that’s in a car packed with sensors—seven lasers, 20 cameras, two radars, GPS, and inertial measurement units. By comparison, the newly announced Comma.ai plug-and-play autonomy unit, designed to be retrofitted to cars, makes use of a camera and a vehicle's existing radar systems. Set to go on sale later this year for $999, and claimed to be “about on par with with Tesla Autopilot," it will be interesting to see how it compares with systems that are baked into cars from the word go.
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Re: Coches sin conductor

Mensajepor Dalamar » 09 Oct 2016 18:21

Tesla vehicles are getting smarter: 222 million Autopilot miles and counting

Tesla CEO Elon Musk took to Twitter to announce that the company has logged nearly a quarter billion miles driven on Autopilot, adding valuable data to its fleet learning program


Son muchas millas y muy pocos accidentes... seguramente en ese periodo si hubiesen sido conductores humanos los que hubiesen conducido el numero de accidentes habria sido muchisimo mayor, pero a la gente le encanta el amarillismo!

Yo nunca he tenido coche, pero si me compro uno sera auto-conducido, yo no soy uno de esos a los que les gusta conducir, lo opuesto!
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Re: Coches sin conductor

Mensajepor Dalamar » 18 Oct 2016 18:28

The partnership was announced after Dubai ruler Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s announcement of the launch of the Dubai Autonomous Transportation Strategy – a new initiative aimed at making 25 percent of all transportation trips in Dubai, smart and driverless by 2030.
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Re: Coches sin conductor

Mensajepor Dalamar » 21 Oct 2016 05:21

Tesla has announced that every new car it manufactures, including the forthcoming Model 3, will come equipped with the “hardware needed for full self-driving capability.” That includes eight cameras around the car, 12 ultrasonic sensors, and a forward-facing radar “capable of seeing through heavy rain, fog, dust and even the car ahead.” The data from those sensors will be processed by a so-called Tesla Neural Net running on new computers powered by Nvidia's Titan GPUs. But for now, the new hardware won’t provide current Autopilot features, like emergency braking or active cruise control. Instead, the company will gather data in the background to calibrate its software, then roll out the features over the air once they’re “robustly validated.” When they're ready, Elon Musk plans to demonstrate their capabilities in typically flamboyant fashion, by having a Tesla drive autonomously from Los Angeles to New York before the end of 2017.
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Re: Coches sin conductor

Mensajepor Dalamar » 13 Nov 2016 18:26

Driverless cars test run begins in Dubai's Business Bay
RTA is considering broadening the deployment of autonomous vehicles in other areas of Dubai including metro stations, malls and tourist spots
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Re: Coches sin conductor

Mensajepor Dalamar » 16 Dic 2016 18:43

Google’s self-driving car fleet has already completed over 1.609 million kilometres of real-world testing. That’s the same as driving around the world 40.15 times.

According to Google’s former lead developer of the project, Sebastian Thrun, fully automated cars could achieve three monumental feats. They could allow us to:

    Reduce traffic accidents by 90%;
    Reduce wasted commute time and energy by 90%
    Reduce the number of cars by 90%.
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Re: Coches sin conductor

Mensajepor Dalamar » 22 Dic 2016 17:33

Voladores...

El grupo europeo Airbus, que sigue muy de cerca las innovaciones del sector del automóvil, considera plausible un futuro con vehículos autónomos volantes y ya trabaja en prototipos sobre la base de helicópteros, el primero de los cuales volará a finales de 2017.


Ver: http://www.airbusgroup.com/int/en/news- ... yover.html
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baseiro
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Re: Coches sin conductor

Mensajepor baseiro » 05 Ene 2017 01:13

Según un estudio del MIT, 3.000 coches para "viajes compartidos" pueden sustituir a los taxis de NY.
[url]
https://www.csail.mit.edu/ridesharing_r ... 00_percent
[/url]
En 2014 el número de taxis amarillos (medallion taxis)era de 13.437 enlace
http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/downloads/pdf/2014_taxicab_fact_book.pdf
Se reduce el número de vehiculos, los gastos ocasionados por las congestiones, los problemas de salud publica, cada vez más comunes en las grandes urbes, ...

Traffic is not just a nuisance for drivers: it’s also a public-health hazard and bad news for the economy.

Transportation studies put the annual cost of congestion at $160 billion, which includes 7 billion hours of time lost to sitting in traffic and an extra 3 billion gallons of fuel burned.

One way to improve traffic is through ride-sharing - and a new MIT study suggests that using carpooling options from companies like Uber and Lyft could reduce the number of vehicles on the road 75 percent without significantly impacting travel time.

Led by Professor Daniela Rus of MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL), researchers developed an algorithm that found that 3,000 four-passenger cars could serve 98 percent of taxi demand in New York City, with an average wait-time of only 2.7 minutes.

“Instead of transporting people one at a time, drivers could transport two to four people at once, results in fewer trips, in less time, to make the same amount of money,” says Rus, who wrote a related paper with former CSAIL postdoc Javier Alonso-Mora, assistant professor Samitha Samaranayake of Cornell University, PhD student Alex Wallar and MIT professor Emilio Frazzoli. “A system like this could allow drivers to work shorter shifts, while also creating less traffic, cleaner air and shorter, less stressful commutes.”

The team also found that 95 percent of demand would be covered by just 2,000 ten-person vehicles, compared to the nearly 14,000 taxis that currently operate in New York City.

Using data from 3 million taxi rides, the new algorithm works in real-time to reroute cars based on incoming requests, and can also proactively send idle cars to areas with high demand - a step that speeds up service 20 percent, according to Rus.

“To our knowledge, this is the first time that scientists have been able to experimentally quantify the trade-off between fleet size, capacity, waiting time, travel delay, and operational costs for a range of vehicles, from taxis to vans and shuttles,” says Rus. “What’s more, the system is particularly suited to autonomous cars, since it can continuously reroute vehicles based on real-time requests.”

The team's article was published in this week’s issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of the Sciences (PNAS).

A future of carpool tunnels
While the concept of carpooling has been around for decades, it’s only in the last two years that services like Uber and Lyft have leveraged smartphone data in a way that has made ride-sharing a cheap, convenient option. (In 2015 Lyft reported that half of its San Francisco trips were carpools.)

However, existing approaches are still limited in their complexity. For example, some ride-sharing systems require that user B be on the way for user A, and need to have all the requests submitted before they can create a route.

In contrast, the new system allows requests to be rematched to different vehicles. It can also analyze a range of different types of vehicles to determine, say, where or when a 10-person van would be of the greatest benefit.

The system works by first creating a graph of all of the requests and all of the vehicles. It then creates a second graph of all possible trip combinations, and uses a method called “integer linear programming” to compute the best assignment of vehicles to trips.
After cars are assigned, the algorithm can then rebalance the remaining idle vehicles by sending them to higher-demand areas.

“A key challenge was to develop a real-time solution that considers the thousands of vehicles and requests at once,” says Rus. “We can do this in our method because that first step enables us to understand and abstract the road network at a fine level of detail.”

The final product is what Rus calls an “anytime optimal algorithm,” which means that it gets better the more times you run it - and she says that she’s eager to see how much it can improve with further refinement.

“Ride-sharing services have enormous potential for positive societal impact with respect to congestion, pollution and energy consumption,” says Rus. “It’s important that we as researchers do everything we can to explore ways to make these transportation systems as efficient and reliable as possible.”

baseiro
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Re: Coches sin conductor

Mensajepor baseiro » 16 Ene 2017 13:17

¿Tendrá el mercado del Mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) un valor superior al de todas las compañias de automoción?
Así lo aseguran en este "mini estudio". Quizá no en un plazo de 5 años, ¿y en 10, 15 años?
https://ark-invest.com/research/autonomous-taxi-market-value

Nota a parte:
Interesante el apartado de ETF's y Fondos orientados a compañías y mercados disruptivos que aparece en la web de Fondos de ARK
https://ark-funds.com/
Aunque habrá que investigar más.


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