El S&P hará techo en 2014?

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El S&P hará techo en 2014?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 12 Mar 2014 13:01

Nos dice Pretcher:

More money flowed into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds last year than ever before. Even more than in 2000, the tech bubble year. 2013 was the first year investors took money out of fixed-income funds after three straight years of dumping it into them.

The stock market is one giant roller coaster of regret for retail investors. Regret for not getting in… regret for getting in too late… regret for being left holding the bag
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Re: El S&P hará techo en 2014?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 12 Mar 2014 14:13

También nos dice que el Rydex indica mucho apalancamiento:

The Rydex family-of-funds data afford good sentiment indicators. Recent figures show a record low investment in conservative money-market funds, meaning nearly everyone is invested in stocks and bonds. At the same time, the ratio of money in bullish stock funds vs. bearish stock funds is over 5:1, and per SentimenTrader.com the ratio of money in leveraged bull vs. bear funds is 10:1! This reading leaves past extremes in the dust. If you study the chart, you will notice that the biggest rush has come in the past six months, which is precisely the time that stocks’ ascent has been slowing! In other words, optimism is soaring while upside momentum is waning.
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Re: El S&P hará techo en 2014?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Mar 2014 08:05

Un articulo muy interesante de Barry Ritzhold:

1. New 52-Week Highs

2. Market Breadth (Advanced/Decline Line)

3. Capitalization: Small Cap, Mid Cap, Large Cap

4. Percentage of Stocks at 20 percent or greater from their recent highs

New 52-week highs are the earliest indication of a market that might be turning unhealthy. Look for divergences between index-price highs and new 52-week highs. When a major index such as the S&P 500 is making new highs but the number of SPX stocks making 52-week peaks begins declining, that divergence is a significant warning sign. This can warn of an eventual top as much as a year ahead of time.

The next warning signal is the divergences between the advance/decline line and the broader markets. This often turns south six to eight months ahead of major tops. Desmond emphasizes that both the new 52-week highs and advanced/decline line reveal market breadth -- a term that describes how much of the market is participating in the advance. When tops occur, we see extreme selectivity -- fewer and fewer stocks are pulling the market upward.

The third factor is selectivity by market capitalization. Historically, the first group to roll over is the small caps. The bottom 50 percent of the market by cap size will begin to falter first, while the rest of the market appears healthy. The usual time period is eight months prior to a top for the smaller issues to fade. The mid-caps -- the next 35 percent or so of equities -- will falter four to six months before the high. The tendency for big-cap-dominated indices to peak last is a function of their structure. They are market-cap weighted and therefore can be dominated by a handful of mega-caps.

The fourth and last factor worth watching is the percentage of stocks in a bear market. As a rough estimate, any equity down 20 percent from recent highs can be considered in its own bear market. During healthy bull markets, less than 10 percent of stocks are in this condition. As the small caps and mid-caps roll over, this percentage will increase. At the market peak, we typically see one-fifth of stocks in their own bear market.

What does all this mean for the current run? According to Lowry’s, “the weight of evidence continues to suggest a healthy primary uptrend with no end in sight.” For those concerned with a market top, that is rather bullish.
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Re: El S&P hará techo en 2014?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Mar 2014 11:12

Salidas a bolsa con beneficios negativos:

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1394788305.238052.jpg
ImageUploadedByTapatalk1394788305.238052.jpg (32.78 KiB) Visto 911 veces
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Re: El S&P hará techo en 2014?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 15 Mar 2014 16:59

La teoria de Dow nos avisa del techo?
Adjuntos
ImageUploadedByTapatalkHD1394895545.335253.jpg
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Re: El S&P hará techo en 2014?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 10 Abr 2014 05:56

Veremos que nos depara el verano:
Adjuntos
ImageUploadedByTapatalkHD1397102188.146756.jpg
ImageUploadedByTapatalkHD1397102177.761984.jpg
ImageUploadedByTapatalkHD1397102166.969730.jpg
ImageUploadedByTapatalkHD1397102153.883529.jpg
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Re: El S&P hará techo en 2014?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 10 Abr 2014 11:54

Unos cuantos gráficos para meditar:
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uploadfromtaptalk1397123683376.jpg (26.62 KiB) Visto 637 veces
uploadfromtaptalk1397123664949.jpg
uploadfromtaptalk1397123664949.jpg (23.22 KiB) Visto 637 veces
uploadfromtaptalk1397123642263.jpg
uploadfromtaptalk1397123642263.jpg (26.2 KiB) Visto 637 veces
uploadfromtaptalk1397123626850.jpg
uploadfromtaptalk1397123626850.jpg (27.22 KiB) Visto 637 veces
uploadfromtaptalk1397123611136.jpg
uploadfromtaptalk1397123611136.jpg (36.26 KiB) Visto 637 veces
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Re: El S&P hará techo en 2014?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 10 Abr 2014 20:33

El VIX historicamente....
Adjuntos
VolatilidadLargoPlazo.png
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Re: El S&P hará techo en 2014?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 23 Abr 2014 16:55

Un gráfico de largo plazo del DJI:
Adjuntos
uploadfromtaptalk1398264885573.jpg
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Re: El S&P hará techo en 2014?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 26 Abr 2014 06:08

One of the things that we like to look at to get a gauge of the risk appetite out there is a ratio between High-Yield (Junk) Bonds and US Treasury Bonds. If money wants to go to work into risk assets like the US Stock Market, it makes sense that we would see similar action in the bond market. If money is flowing faster into risky Junk rather than the safer Treasuries, then we know that the behavior of the bond market is confirming the new highs in the stock market.

As you can see in this chart, whenever the S&P500 made new highs last year, the Junk/Treasury spread was also putting in new highs. This intermarket analysis helped us confirm what we were seeing in stocks.
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