Todos los Hedge Funds tienen Apple

McThai
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Re: Todos los Hedge Funds tienen Apple

Mensajepor McThai » 25 Ene 2013 00:55

Momento de entrar?

Lo de las expectations de ingresos para el proximo trimestre no me parece razón suficiente para el batacazo. Podría darse el caso de ser un número "inventado" a la baja para asegurarse esta vez si de batir expectations el próximo trimestre.

Tienen cash de sobra para adquisiciones.
Aumentarán el dividendo.
Apple TV está a la vuelta de la esquina.
Tienen mucho margen de crecimiento en el mercado chino y en emergentes.
El reto es mantener las cifras en los mercados y productos actuales, que yo lo veo factible.

Un dato que me ha llamado la atención:
Beneficio trimestral de Apple $13.1 billion.
Beneficios de Amazon acumulados en toda su historia $5 billion
Market cap de Apple: $423 billion
Market cap de Amazon: $124 billion

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Dalamar
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Re: Todos los Hedge Funds tienen Apple

Mensajepor Dalamar » 25 Ene 2013 06:32

Si, lo cierto es que por fundamentales Apple no parece esar caro, y no parece tampoco que la gente vaya a dejar de usar los productos de Apple, yo creo que esa correccion no esta justificada, aunque a mi nunca me gusto Apple por su modelo de negocio que creo que es lo que le esta penalizando, el estar tan limitada a unos pocos productos.
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Dalamar
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Re: Todos los Hedge Funds tienen Apple

Mensajepor Dalamar » 27 Ene 2013 06:57

Samsung: Los ingresos del gigante surcoreano ascendieron a 139.573 millones de euros durante 2012, lo que representa un incremento del 21,8 % respecto al año anterior. Su beneficio neto ascendió a 16.540 millones, un 73,4 % más. El causante de estos buenos resultados no es otro que su sector de telefonía móvil: sólo en el último trimestre Samsung vendió 63 millones de teléfonos.

Apple: los chicos de Cupertino presentaron los mejores resultados de su historia: 54.500 millones de dólares en ingresos (un 17 % más) y unos beneficios netos de 13.100 millones, en la línea del trimestre anterior, respaldados por la venta de más de 75 millones de dispositivos iOS en un sólo trimestre (48 millones de iPhones y 22,9 millones de iPad).
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Dalamar
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Re: Todos los Hedge Funds tienen Apple

Mensajepor Dalamar » 27 Ene 2013 11:47

Bespoke ha calculado todas las ocasiones en que Apple desde el 2002 reaccionó negativamente a la publicación de sus resultados.

En total 18 ocasiones.

Pues bien a las cinco semanas de esto, el S&P 500 solo bajaba en 3, con una media de subida de 1,9% y por tanto más del 88% de las ocasiones en positivo.

Y hay tres de las ocasiones en que Apple como ahora bajó el 10% o más...
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Dalamar
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Re: Todos los Hedge Funds tienen Apple

Mensajepor Dalamar » 28 Ene 2013 12:20

Damodaran dice:

I would categorize Apple investors and potential investors into three groups right now, based on their views of its value and the current price.

The Pricers: As I see it, the bulk of the investors in Apple have no idea what the value of the stock is and do not care that they don't know its value. They are intent on playing the pricing game, where the key becomes gauging what the rest of the crowd thinks about the stock and trying to get ahead of them. At any stock price, the question they ask is not whether Apple is under or over valued, but whether the price will go up or down in the near term. I have never been good at this game and it must be exhausting, being at the mercy of market sentiment, moods and fancy.

The Value Skeptics: This group has always viewed Apple's rapid rise to the top of the market cap heap with suspicion, convinced that its value could not have risen that fast. Some of this group belong to the hardcore value camp, where no technology company, especially one with intangible assets and an elusive "cool" factor, would be a good value, at any price. Some, though, have reasonable doubts about the capacity of technology companies to maintain earnings in an volatile environment and believe that those of us who assume long term growth prospects for these companies are under estimating the risk of the disruption from new technologies. Just as Apple undercut RIMM and Nokia, they believe that some other company will undercut Apple in the future. Many in this group are feeling self-righteous, arguing the price drop was long overdue but not enough to make the company an attractive investment yet.

The Value Optimists: This group believes that Apple is a bargain at $440 and that its true value is much higher. Some, in this group, base this judgment on simple comparisons. At a market cap of $413 billion, with a cash balance of $120 billion and net income of $42 billion, they note that Apple is trading at roughly seven times earnings, cheap in a market where the median PE ratio is about 16. Some are basing their views on cash flow based valuations and I am one of that group, as you probably already know from my post at the end of 2012. In that post, I valued Apple at $609/share and the latest earnings report barely changes that estimate. I did a follow up simulation, bringing in the uncertainty about my estimates about revenue growth(-2% to +14%), margins (25% to 35%) and cost of capital (11%-14%) into the mix.

Based on my estimates, and they could be skewed by my Apple bias, at its current stock price of $440, there is a 90% chance that the stock is under valued.
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Re: Todos los Hedge Funds tienen Apple

Mensajepor Dalamar » 08 Feb 2013 01:08

David Einhorn's hedge fund Greenlight Capital submitted a notice of exempt solicitation today via the SEC where they urged Apple (AAPL) shareholders to vote against proposal 2 which eliminates the company's ability to issue preferred stock, at the company's annual meeting on February 27th.

The main reason for this? Einhorn wants to see Apple issue perpetual preferred securities, a concept we highlighted via that link.

In the statement, Einhorn says that,

"We believe Apple must examine all of its options to unlock the growing value of its balance sheet for all shareholders. Over the past several months, we have had an ongoing dialogue with Apple regarding one option to do so, namely the creation of a new security, a perpetual preferred stock that would be distributed at no cost to Apple’s existing shareholders, and would provide an attractive, sustainable dividend while preserving Apple’s financial resources to pursue its business strategy."

Greenlight sees this as a way to improve Apple's poor capital allocation policy. After all, the company has around $137 billion in cash (or $145 per share).

While Apple has started paying a dividend and initiated a 'nominal share repurchase program,' Einhorn still feels there's more room for improvement.

As such, Einhorn calls for AAPL shareholders to vote against proposal 2, which eliminates the option for the company to issue preferred stock. We'll have to wait and see if his call to action is successful.
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Re: Todos los Hedge Funds tienen Apple

Mensajepor Dalamar » 07 Mar 2013 07:37

Una historia de un tipo que monto un hedge fund que solo hacia trading the Apple, El caso de Andy Zaky:

In the late 1990s, an ad agency creative director I'll call Joe Smith to protect his privacy bought several hundred shares of Apple (AAPL) at $60 apiece. Last fall, at age 42, he found himself out of work and increasingly dependent on the value of those shares to make ends meet.

Following the lead of a 33-year-old investment advisor named Andy Zaky who had written that Apple was going to $750 by January and to $1,000 within a year, Smith converted most of his Apple common stock -- more than he should have -- into high-risk Apple call options. When those options expired in the third week of January with Apple trading below $500, they were worth exactly zero. Smith had lost roughly $400,000 and all his Apple shares.

A lot of people lost a lot of money when Apple went into the extended downward slide that just entered its sixth month. And there were plenty of other experts saying all along that the stock was undervalued and ready to bounce. But Smith's story -- and the story of hundreds of other investors who were following Andy Zaky's so-called Apple model portfolio last fall -- hold a special poignancy for me. Not only did these people get some spectacularly bad advice, but they got it from someone whom I helped make famous.

Zaky was working hard that spring. He had taken his free newsletter, Bullish Cross, behind a paywall in June 2011, charging subscribers $49 a month for his daily live market analysis, annotated charts and weekly summaries -- pieces that were sometimes 3,000 or 4,000 words long.

"There's a solid easy 500% gain to be had in Apple with an imbalanced low level of risk involved," he wrote, with typical bravado, at the launch of Bullish Cross Pro. "There is such a low risk profile in this trade, that I'm actually pretty shocked that not a whole lot has actually been written about it."

As Apple's share price climbed and Zaky's fame spread, investors clamored to get in. In June 2012 he opened his newsletter up to a flood of new subscribers, charging the members of this group $200 a month. At its peak, Bullish Cross Pro had 700 subscribers and a lively bulletin board where Zaky would often field more than 500 comments and questions a day.

Meanwhile, he was onto something even bigger. In late 2011 he'd launched Bullish Cross Capital L.P. -- basically an Apple-only hedge fund -- with a handful of subscribers. By the spring of 2012, the fund's investor rolls had grown six fold. In a Form D filed in November 2012, Zaky reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission that Bullish Cross Asset Management (BCRAM) had attracted 28 limited partners with an average investment of $378,000. The minimum investment, which started at $250,000, had grown to $500,000 by March 2012.

It was in the hedge fund that the first signs of trouble appeared. An investor who spoke off the record because he is bound by a nondisclosure agreement, describes how the fund missed both of Apple's big 2012 rallies -- in April when it hit $644 and in September when it hit $705. Zaky lost nearly nearly 50% of the fund's capital in one month (March) by buying bearish put spreads just before the stock rose 10%. The fund also managed to get crushed when the stock went down. In May, when the stock fell nearly 100 points, Zaky had bet heavily on bullish calls spreads.

When Apple fell to $505 in late November, he sent his investors what must have been one of the most painful letters of his life:

"Dear Limited Partner," it begins. "It is with extraordinary regret that I must inform you that during this very dramatic period, the fund has sustained very heavy and largely irreversible losses... At this point, it makes very little sense for anyone to make a redemption given that the fund's liabilities are greater than the fund's capital balance."

Zaky had taken under management more than $10.6 million of other people's money and lost it all.

But those lost millions -- suffered largely by well-to-do investors who knew the risks they were taking -- pale next to the damage done to the 700 subscribers at Bullish Cross Pro. Many of these investors have since fled the site and joined a Google group called bc-subs (for "Bullish Cross subscribers"), where they commiserate about their lost retirement funds, their ruined marriages, their thoughts of suicide. Many lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Some lost millions.

"A significant number of the people who lost money following Zaky's trades were people who were not sophisticated enough to understand the instruments in which they were investing," says one member who asked not to be identified.

But things got out of hand in October, when Zaky became convinced that Apple was set to rally. "At some point he lost it. When he said hold on to our spreads, I was losing $25,000 a day. I froze. I couldn't sleep."

On Bullish Cross Pro, Zaky has moved away from covering Apple and concentrated on trading the SPY, which tracks the S&P 500 and requires less faith in fundamentals. For the few members that remain, he has recommended several recovery plans, some of which involved investing in January 2014 Apple options that have already lost most of their value.

What I can say now is that I've heard directly from 36 former Bullish Cross members who tell me that they lost anywhere from $15,000 to $50 million apiece.

Total losses for these 36 investors: $92.5 million
Average loss: $2.6 million

Given that at its peak, Bullish Cross had 700 members, it's quite likely that Andy Zaky's followers -- many of whom had put their savings and retirement accounts into Apple call spreads -- lost hundreds of millions of dollars. If the members I haven't heard from were large investors, total losses could reach into the billions.


Visto en http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/04/ ... ish-cross/
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Dalamar
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Re: Todos los Hedge Funds tienen Apple

Mensajepor Dalamar » 12 Mar 2013 09:11

En el cuadro que os adjuntamos podéis observar cuales son las compañías en las que los 50 mayores Hedge Funds tienen su mayor inversión. En el tercer trimestre del 2012, 23 de los 50 mayores hedges funds (los auténticos elefantes de los mercados) tenían a Apple como su mayor inversión en cartera. Un trimestre más tarde sólo eran 10 los Hedge Funds gigantes que mantenían a Apple en cartera.

El Hotel donde dejar aparcado su dinero es hoy en día Google, donde 16 de los 50 mayores Hedge Funds la tienen cómo su principal inversión.


Visto en Gurusblog

Y ya lo dijimos demasiados hedge funds tenian Apple y eso no puede acabar bien, tambien tenian grandes cantidades de oro, y es que ver las mayores posiciones de la mayoria de hedge funds es interesante para saber quienes van a vender masivamente cuando la vaca deje de dar leche.
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Dalamar
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Re: Todos los Hedge Funds tienen Apple

Mensajepor Dalamar » 12 Mar 2013 19:09

Revisemos similitudes:

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Stopford
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Re: Todos los Hedge Funds tienen Apple

Mensajepor Stopford » 26 Abr 2013 16:33

Y que opinas de los nuevos resultados publicados? Ahora meterse en Apple, con los fondos saliendo en estampida y con los comentarios casi diarios de lo bien que le va a Samsung parece ser contrarian.


Volver a “Análisis contrarian”

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