BRICS sobrecomprados, ¿Nuevas alternativas?

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BRICS sobrecomprados, ¿Nuevas alternativas?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 12 May 2012 02:43

Robert Koenigsberger piensa que los BRICS estan sobecomprados y saturados, Passport Capital opina que Arabia Saudi podria ser como la India del 2003, ¿Alguien a mirado algun stock de Arabia Saudi?

Dado que el peak oil esta cerca, podria ser interesante.
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Re: BRICS sobrecomprados, ¿Nuevas alternativas?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 01 Oct 2012 15:07

BNP Paribas: – The direct cause of the slowdown that began last spring by three big EMEs— China, Brazil and India — was the stripping away of the effects of the massive fiscal stimulus adopted in 2009. For instance, China’s fiscal stimulus package was massive at RMB 4 trillion (13% of GDP), and this made China the global economy’s growth engine following the Lehman shock. What is more, monetary conditions were also made extremely accommodative. Specifically, the aggressive easing by the Fed (QE1 and QE2) spilled over into the EMEs via their exchange rates. The mechanism involved worked like this: Because the Fed’s aggressive easing resulted in the weakening of the dollar, EMEs had to undertake dollar-buying intervention in the FX market to neutralize upward pressures on the local currency, something that made domestic monetary conditions extremely accommodative. Thus, the robust growth by the EMEs these past three years was inflated by the aggressive monetary/fiscal policies, and so was unsustainable.

Because the EME boomed both before and after the Lehman shock, the impression has taken root that the EMEs are the global economy’s driver. But the robust EME growth prior to the Lehman shock was also not sustainable. In retrospect, we can see that that brisk EME expansion was made possible by an export boom that was fueled by the bubble-driven economies of Europe and America. That China became the world’s production hub is due not just to its strong competitiveness but also to the voracious demand from the US and Europe.
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BRICS sobrecomprados, ¿Nuevas alternativas?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 23 Oct 2012 05:06

business channel CNBC ranked the Philippines in the top spot of its roster of countries for long-term economic growth prospects because of rapid population growth, beating India and China.

Citing consistent economic performance, population growth and high birth rates, Goldman Sachs included the Philippines in its N-11 list of countries expected to emerge as economic powers in the near future.

The list includes Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, Iran, Bangladesh, Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam.

In 2011, amid the US economic slowdown, eurozone crisis and massive investment outflow, the N-11 had beaten 93 percent of US-based emerging market equity funds while BRICS, another group of developing economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, lagged by almost 89 percent. For the first half of the year, N-11’s equity funds rose by almost 12 percent compared with the 3.2 percent increase of BRICS.
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Re: BRICS sobrecomprados, ¿Nuevas alternativas?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Nov 2012 15:41

Money week nos avisa:

the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) that have been so fashionable over the years, will all run into trouble next year and should be avoided.

In the last decade monetary authorities worldwide, led by Fed chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, have kept interest rates too low. Money has flooded into the emerging markets, especially the favored BRICs.

The result has been a surge of corruption in all four BRICs, accompanied by a surge in "malinvestment," a term beloved of the Austrian school of economists and describing investments, like the Nevada housing market in 2004-06, that is entirely misdirected and a waste of resources.

In China, the economy is slowing and there is a gigantic morass of bad loans in the banking system, perhaps five times the size of the bad loans about which everyone worried a decade ago. A 2008-style banking collapse and government bailout in China seems inevitable - and we know what that does to an economy!

In India the fine Vajpayee government of 1998-2004 was replaced by an ungrateful electorate with a return to the socialist Congress party, which had wrecked India's economy from 1947-1990.

The budget deficit in India, by both the central and regional governments, is gigantic now and is "crowding out" the private sector from the financial market. We also can expect a surge in inflation and a balance of payments crisis. Fortunately, there's another election in 2014; we can hope that the Indian voters do a better job than in 2004.

As for Russia, Vladimir Putin has effectively established himself as President for life, and has taken control of the economy's major sectors. The Rosneft buyout of TNK-BP indicates that the Russian state will use its resources to assert economic control. This is already working poorly, and it will stop working altogether when the price of oil drops.

Finally, Brazil is meddling in its major companies such as Petrobras and Vale, whose results have sharply deteriorated. Public spending is way out of control, mostly through subsidized loans from the state bank BNDES. Like Russia, Brazil will fairly quickly run into a balance of payments crisis and certainly won't enjoy its past rapid growth.

Since investors saw BRICs as a bloc on the way up, they will almost certainly panic simultaneously about all four on the way down, and cause a global financial crisis involving all four. That's if the Eurozone's problems or Japan's government debt don't cause one first.

Three Emerging Markets to Buy

As investors, we can only protect ourselves to a limited extent, and certainly should not "sell at the bottom," as some unfortunates did in early 2009. Certainly we should not put our money in any of the BRIC trouble spots.

However,there are other emerging markets whose prospects remain excellent. They include Singapore, Chile and the Philippines. Here's why emerging markets are better bets in 2013:

Singapore is now at European standards of wealth and is projected by the Economist team of forecasters to grow by 4% in 2013 after a slowdown in 2012. It also ranks top or close to it on international indexes of integrity and business-friendliness. Try the iShares MSCI Singapore index ETF (NYSE: EWS).

Chile remains the best-run country in Latin America, with high scores on integrity indexes and a strong mineral sector. Aberdeen Chile Fund (NYSE: CH) is the recommendation here.

The Philippines has been off most investors' radar screens, but is expected to grow 6.0% in 2013. The iShares Philippines Investible Market Index ETF (NYSE: EPHE) gives investor coverage of this market, although at 17 times earnings currently its pricing is a little rich.
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Re: BRICS sobrecomprados, ¿Nuevas alternativas?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 23 Dic 2015 22:35

Ahora podriamos empezar a pensar en BRCs sobrevendidos y puntos de entrada...
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