QE 3, que esperar?

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8963
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 13 Sep 2012 08:27

Estos graficos nos dan unas pistas en cuento a EUR/USD y el mercado americano!
Adjuntos
EURUSD-QE.png
EURUSD-QE.png (78.45 KiB) Visto 567 veces
MArketQE.jpg
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8963
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 30 Sep 2012 10:44

Segun Charles Biderman:

“The first easing boosted the market value of all US stocks by about $4.6 trillion. The second easing raised values by about $3.5 trillion, as did the third easing. And the current easing raised market cap by just over $2 trillion. Subtracting the intervening declines, the market value of all US stocks is up by $10 trillion since the first easing in March 2009.”
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8963
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 30 Sep 2012 16:51

Qatar worried about value of dollar, euro, still eyes assets

Sheikh Hamad said the central banks were right to act to prevent worse crises, but added: "With more printing money, without having a strategy, I believe the value of the money will go down very soon."

The gas-rich Gulf state has bought more than $5 billion or $6 billion of real estate assets over the last four to five months, mostly in the United States and Europe, Sheikh Hamad said. "If there is some good opportunity, why not," he said of investing in crisis-hit Europe.
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8963
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 02 Oct 2012 06:40

Como ha ido el QE3 hasta hoy?
Adjuntos
QEProgress.JPG
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8963
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 02 Oct 2012 13:26

Visto en MoneyWeek:

The Fed’s promise to keep buying mortgage-backed bonds has driven up the price of these bonds as investors pile into them. That means that banks creating new ones are suddenly making a much larger profit on them than they did before the Fed’s announcement.

But they’re not passing this profit on to customers in the form of lower loan costs. They’re just keeping the extra cash. That’s not necessarily what the Fed wants, says the FT.

“The extent to which QE3 drives down mortgage rates and helps homeowners or is pocketed by banks will be crucial to the success of the policy and the prospects for growth in the US and global economies next year.”
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8963
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 04 Oct 2012 18:58

According to the Financial Times, the profit banks earn from creating new mortgages and selling them into secondary markets has risen to 1.6%. That's up from the 1.44% they pocketed before QE3 and significantly higher than the 0.5% they earned on average in the decade between 2000 and 2010.

Freddie Mac issued its first mortgage pass-through notes in 1971, calling them participation certificates. Ten years later, in 1981, Fannie Mae began bundling similar mortgage pass-throughs and called them mortgage-backed securities.

Then along came the Housing and Community Development Act of 1992, which amended the Fannie and Freddie charters. It mandated that both institutions meet affordable housing goals set by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

Initially, the goal was for 30% of the combined portfolio to be comprised of low- and moderate-income mortgage purchases. By 2007, that figure had risen to 55%.

Somewhere along the line, the psychology of housing changed. I believe the hundreds of billions of securitized mortgages that were created out of thin air allowed people to view housing as an investment with fixed-income characteristics regardless of the underlying quality of the mortgages or the banks underwriting them.

In other words, houses stopped being simply homes and became the physical equivalent of fixed income instruments...investments by any other name.
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8963
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 16 Oct 2012 06:49

"Panamá se plantea adoptar el euro como moneda de curso legal

El presidente de Panamá, Ricardo Martinelli, ha expresado u deseo de introducir el euro como moneda de curso legal en su país, como ya sucede en el caso del dólar estadounidense, tras un encuentro con la canciller alemana, Angela Merkel. En Panamá, la moneda en libre circulación es el dólar estadounidense y le dije a la canciller que estamos estudiando las vías para que el euro se convierta en otra moneda de curso legal y que sea aceptada en el mercado panameño, ha explicado Martinelli en rueda de prensa."

Pues esto podria ser importante, si los paises que tienen al Dolar como moneda, empiezan a pensarse el tener el Euro, podria tener un gran impacto en el Dolar, en algun momento se tendran cuenta que si siguen con medidas de QE van a asustar al mundo y pueden desestabilizar el Dolar, aunque a corto plazo yo creo que su meta es que el dolar pierda valor para ganar competitividad, y todo esto es intencionado.
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8963
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 18 Oct 2012 13:38

The latest version of QE calls for the New York Fed (the central bank's trading arm) to buy $45 billion of U.S. Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage- backed securities a month from dealers and banks .

The Fed then intends to "sterilize" these purchases by selling 1- to 3- year bonds through the end of the year - until it runs out of short- term paper to sell. A "sterilized" intervention is one that doesn't increase the money supply.

But beginning in 2013, the Fed plans to continue doing the same thing - effectively continuing "Operation Twist," but without the sterilization, because it has no more short- term paper to sell.

In plain terms, this means the Fed will monetize nearly 50% of the entire U.S. budget deficit in 2013. That will boost its balance sheet from the current $2.8 trillion to approximately $4 trillion - or 24% of U.S. GDP - by the end of the new year.

The idea is that, flush with cash and with fewer opportunities for higher returns, the banks will take on more risk and boost their lending to businesses and consumers.

Businesses would use the cheap money to expand their operations, make capital purchases, produce more and hire workers to make it all happen. Firms are expected, according to the model, to build inventory in anticipation of the higher demand to come.

Then there are the consumers, who in good times account for 70% of what makes the U.S. economy go.

That hiring, in turn , puts additional money in consumer wallets, which accelerates spending, and starts the whole cycle anew.

Consumers are also expected to invest in housing. The Fed presumes both are the result of more or better wages ahead.

The Fed's grand plan is also supposed to benefit the stock and bond markets. The yield-starved, zero-interest-rate environment the Fed is deliberately creating will force businesses and consumers to turn to stocks, bonds, capital purchases, and other assets in pursuit of higher returns.

Here's the real issue - the one thing that terrifies these massive institutions.

They're afraid of each other.

That's right ... they're so afraid of each other, and of the potential implosion of the $648 trillion derivatives playground that they created and have now handcuffed themselves to that they're forced to forever watch one another, and to hoard capital for that future "what if" day of reckoning.

Estimates suggest there's only one "real" dollar in the system for every $10 they've created .

And nobody knows who's got it.

Apple Inc., for example, is sitting on more than $117 billion in cash, 63% of which is offshore. Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $162 billion. General Electric Co. has $122 billion tucked away.

Companies of all sizes are holding down costs, delaying investments as long as possible, and are hiring only when absolutely necessary.

Having been badly burned by an orgy of easy credit and profligate spending, consumers have had enough, too . They're deleveraging. Many don't want debt - even if it's free.

Everyone is Washington is focusing their energies on making sure it happens on someone else's "watch."

Visto en Money Morning
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8963
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 31 Oct 2012 07:39

El banco de Japon le da al QE:

"The BOJ announced that it would increase its asset purchases by JPY11 trillion. The consensus was for JPY10 trillion, though there had been some talk of as much as JPY20 trillion.

These new purchases will consist mostly of Japanese government bonds (JPY5 trillion) and discount bills (JPY5 trillion). The BOJ will increase its alternative assets, ETFs, REITS and commercial bonds by a total of JPY1 trillion. "
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8963
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 04 Nov 2012 14:13

El balance de la FED no parece crecer mucho por el momento:
Adjuntos
FEDsBalancesheet.png
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!


Volver a “Análisis macro”

cron

Ingresar