QE 3, que esperar?

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Dalamar
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 08 Mar 2013 21:23

The government will continue to support the market no matter what.

The crisis happened precisely because there weren’t preset expectations of government support. In fact, by allowing Lehman Brothers to fail, the government was signalling that “implicit guarantees” were not worth their salt at all.

Consequently, all predictions which were based around the notion of free markets were proved right.


Fuente: Jim Rogers
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 18 Mar 2013 06:43

consider Cantillon’s 18th century analysis of the effects of a sudden increase in gold production:

If the increase of actual money comes from mines of gold or silver… the owner of these mines, the adventurers, the smelters, refiners, and all the other workers will increase their expenditures in proportion to their gains. … All this increase of expenditures in meat, wine, wool, etc. diminishes of necessity the share of the other inhabitants of the state who do not participate at first in the wealth of the mines in question. The altercations of the market, or the demand for meat, wine, wool, etc. being more intense than usual, will not fail to raise their prices. … Those then who will suffer from this dearness… will be first of all the landowners, during the term of their leases, then their domestic servants and all the workmen or fixed wage-earners … All these must diminish their expenditure in proportion to the new consumption.

In Cantillon’s example, the gold mine owners, mine employees, manufacturers of the stuff miners buy and the merchants who trade in it all benefit handsomely. They are closest to the new money and they get to see their real purchasing powers rise.

But as they go out and spend, they bid up the prices of the stuff they purchase to a level which is higher than it would otherwise have been, making that stuff more expensive. For anyone not connected to the mining business (and especially those on fixed incomes: “the landowners, during the term of their leases”), real incomes haven’t risen to keep up with the higher prices. So the increase in the gold supply redistributes money towards those closest to the new money, and away from those furthest away.

But beneath the surface, the redistributive mechanism upon which monetary policy relies was at work. Like Cantillon’s gold miners, those closest to the new credit (financial institutions and anyone working in finance industry) were the prime beneficiaries.
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 20 Mar 2013 12:31

Entre julio de 2007 y febrero de 2013, los balances de la Reserva Federal y del Banco de Inglaterra crecieron un 254% y un 394%, respectivamente, frente al 130% del Eurosistema. Tras la inyección, hace un año, de más de 1 billón de euros en financiación directa a los bancos de la zona del euro, el BCE ha observado hasta ahora la devolución anticipada de 224 000 millones de euros procedentes de sus FPML. Con esta devolución, el BCE es el único banco central importante con un balance en retroceso, ya que ha seguido sin utilizarse la red de seguridad de las OMT. El balance del Banco Nacional de Suiza también se ha estabilizado, una vez que sus esfuerzos por frenar el valor del franco frente al euro elevaron su tamaño por encima de 500 000 millones de francos suizos, o un 83% del PIB.


Fuente: JM Campuzano
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 31 Mar 2013 06:41

"Real inflation in the UK is closer to 6.9% and in US around 6.7%" Segun Daniel Lacalle

Y yo creo que podria ser bastante factible.
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 09 Abr 2013 17:40

Los de Goldman Sachs nos dicen:

Our own view has long been that QE is only moderately effective in boosting growth. In his 2012 Jackson Hole speech, Chairman Bernanke cited results from simulations with the Fed’s FRB/US model that imply a boost to the level of GDP of more than 1% for each $1trn in asset purchases. In contrast, our own analysis using the estimated link between QE and our Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (GSFCI) suggests about a 0.4% lift to GDP for each $1trn in purchases, less than half the Chairman’s number. One reason for the smaller effect is that our GSFCI is based on a modified version of FRB/US which puts more weight on credit availability and correspondingly less weight on riskless rates alone. Since QE seems to be less effective in easing credit conditions than in pushing down riskless rates—a finding confirmed by new research from the Fed staff—it is not surprising that our approach generates a smaller effect than the Chairman’s.
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 11 Abr 2013 06:28

Activos de los bancos centrales con respecto a su PIB:
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 18 Jun 2013 16:48


The minutes contained a heavy dose of criticism about the effectiveness of QE, such as:

"However, the effectiveness of the [Fed QE] policies in producing healthy economic and employment growth is not clear. Uncertainty about fiscal and monetary policy is deterring business investment that would spur growth, and despite policy accommodation, economic growth has remained sluggish and uneven."

"The Fed's aggressive purchases of 15-year and 30-year MBS [mortgage-backed securities] have depressed yields for the 'bread and butter' investment in most bank portfolios; banks seeking additional yield have had to turn to investment options with longer durations, lower liquidity, and/or higher credit risk."


"…disruptive to management of fixed-income portfolios, retirement funds, consumer savings, and retirement planning. They may encourage unsophisticated investors to take on undue risk to achieve better returns."

However, the real meat of the FAC minutes given the angst over "tapering" was warning about the painful consequences on the economy of withdrawing QE:

"Uncertainty exists about how markets will reestablish normal valuations when the Fed withdraws from the market. It will likely be difficult to unwind [QE] policy accommodation, and the end of monetary easing may be painful for consumers and businesses."

In short, the top bankers in the US are warning the Fed that tapering will likely lead to a "painful" economic slowdown.

That is why the FAC members expect QE to continue for another "one to three years."


http://federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fac-20130517.pdf
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 20 Jun 2013 12:07

Reconoce que si las proyecciones económicas son correctas la QE terminará a mediados de 2014 (con lo cual aunque no lo ha dicho no tardamos nada en empezar a ralentizar) Para nosotros esto es muy mala noticia para las bolsas. Queda dicho. A mediados del año que viene puede quedar liquidada la QE.

Y ahora dice que si las previsiones se cumplen "ve probable" que este mismo año se reduzcan las compras de bonos. Esto está muy claro. Todo está confirmado. En el medio plazo de las bolsas esto va a ser una losa.


Visto en SerenityMarkets
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 05 Oct 2013 09:57

El gráfico muestra la relación entre el S & P 500 con respecto al ETF iShares EAFE en el último año. El ETF EAFE representa las acciones de fuera de Estados Unidos, es decir, aquellas que cotizan en Europa, Asia Pacífico y en el próximo Oriente. Una línea ascendente significa un mejor comportamiento de las bolsas de Estados Unidos, y una línea decreciente significa un mejor comportamiento de las bolsas de fuera de Estados Unidos.
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 26 Nov 2013 20:42

las bolsas seguiran subiendo si hay QE? bajaran con el tappering?
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