QE 3, que esperar?

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Dalamar
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 19 Nov 2012 06:00

La deuda publica de US es alta, pero tampoco es tanta, ojo que no incluimos los 5 trillones americanos que se debe a si mismo, aunque no creo que sea necesario:
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 19 Nov 2012 06:07

“As a result of quantitative easing (QE), the UK government owes the Bank of England a lot of money”, says John. “Since March 2009, the Bank has printed enough money to buy up around a quarter of the government’s total outstanding debt. It now holds £375bn in British government IOUs, (also known as gilts).

“So what’s it been doing with the interest payments on that debt? Nothing really. Up until now, the money has just been sitting in a bank account (called the ‘Asset Purchase Facility’, or APF). By March next year, the Bank will have racked up £35bn in interest payments.”

But now Osborne has decided to snatch the lot, says John. The way Osborne sees it, it’s stupid for the Treasury to pay interest to the Bank of England as it means the government has to borrow more money to do so. The logic is that rather than pay interest on the loans today, it makes more sense to use that money now to reduce the overall debt.

That might seem like common sense but it’s taking us down a dangerous path, says John.

“The point of QE – we’re told – is to get more money flowing around the economy somehow, and so prevent deflation. Whether you agree with that end goal or not is by the by. The point is, it’s just an extension of what the Bank of England tries to do with interest rates.”

But this latest move is different, says John. It’s been driven by the Treasury. “It’s money-printing done to benefit the government’s finances, not the economy”, and that’s a policy that can only end badly.
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Dic 2012 23:25

The Federal Reserve will take steps to bolster the economy until the unemployment rate falls to 6.5 percent or inflation looks likely to exceed 2.5 percent, the central bank said Wednesday in a historic move that for the first time specifies the Fed's goals for the nation's economy.
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 08 Ene 2013 06:39

En general el departamento del Tesoro de los EEUU no tiene autorizada la capacidad de imprimir dinero, esta es una opción que queda completamente en manos de la Reserva Federal que es la que controla la oferta monetaria… pero existe una pequeña y anacrónica excepción. El Departamento del Tesoro si está autorizado a acuñar monedas de platino de cualquier denominación, es decir del valor que quieran. Obviamente la ley que autoriza al departamento del Tesoro a emitir monedas de platino se aprobó con la idea de que el Gobierno del los EEUU pudiera emitir monedas conmemortativas destinadas a coleccionistas y no para incrementar su base monetaria o emitir deuda.. pero..

“Aunque el Tesoro no puede crear dinero de la nada para pagar sus cuentas, hay un tecnicismo en la ley que reza: el Tesoro tiene facultades discrecionales especiales para crear monedas de platino de cualquier denominación, y la idea es que el Secretario del Tesoro, Tim Geithner, podría crear la moneda y entregarla a la Reserva Federal y depositarla en la cuenta bancaria del Tesoro”, apunta Joe Weisenthal de Business Insider.

Más de 1.000 personas ya han solicitado al gobierno de Obama que ordene la acuñación de la moneda en la página web de la Casa Blanca. Se propone que el Tesoro acuñe una moneda de un billón de dólares, la deposite en la Reserva Federal y respalde con ella la capacidad de endeudarse por esa cantidad, suficiente para elevar virtualmente, de un golpe, el techo de la deuda nacional.

El Tesoro no tiene la capacidad de imprimir dinero, algo que es potestad de la Reserva Federal, pero el recurso legal a la “moneda de platino”, por caprichoso que parezca, podría evitar que se repitan los enconados debates en el Legislativo del verano de 2011, que condujeron a la pérdida de la triple A en la calificación de la deuda estadounidense por primera vez en la historia. Hasta el Premio Nobel Paul Krugman ha tratado esta “peculiar excepción” como una posibilidad real, con el argumento de que “vivimos en un tiempo económico extraño, en el que las reglas normales ya no cuentan”.
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 27 Ene 2013 08:57

First the weak countries needed to reduce both fiscal and current account deficits, even at the cost of higher unemployment and lower growth. However, this strategy would have failed completely, if the Fed had not decided to provide more money to fund the American housing markets and the European trade surpluses via U.S. consumer spending.

A similar austerity strategy was applied in 1982 during the Latin American debt crisis, quite successful at the beginning, but at the end the Mexicans and others ended up in a lost decade and debt write-offs.

The Latin American Lost Decade: ”In response to the crisis most nations abandoned their import substitution industrialization (ISI) models of economy and adopted an export-oriented industrialization strategy, usually the neoliberal strategy encouraged by the IMF, though there are exceptions such as Chile and Costa Rica who adopted reformist strategies. A massive process of capital outflow, particularly to the United States, served to depreciate the exchange rates, thereby raising the real interest rate. Real GDP growth rate for the region was only 2.3 percent between 1980 and 1985, but in per capita terms Latin America experienced negative growth of almost 9 percent. Between 1982 and 1985, Latin America paid back 108 billion dollars.”

The Latin Americans had a weak currency to enforce their export-oriented industrialization, but the weak European countries do not have this advantage. On the other side, debt repayment is easier in a common currency especially when sustained by longer-term repayment schedules. We are quite sure that the Latin American crisis could have ended far earlier, when great parts of the debt would had been written off earlier, like recently done with Iceland, Greece and as it will be potentially done with Cyprus, Portugal and Spain.

By mid-2012 Iceland was regarded as one of Europe’s recovery success stories. It has had two years of economic growth. Unemployment was down to 6.3% and Iceland was attracting immigrants to fill jobs. Currency devaluation effectively reduced wages by 50% making exports more competitive and imports more expensive. Ten year government bonds were issued below 6%, lower than some of the PIIGS nations in the EU (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain). Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson, a member of parliament, noted that adjustments via currency devaluations are less painful than government labor policies and negotiations.
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 29 Ene 2013 15:48

Dshort dobre el momento actual:

The point here is that there are times when one should step back to look at the forest for the trees. The catalysts that brought the financial markets to its knees in 2000-2002 or 2008-2009 will likely not be the same ones in the future. Will the markets continue to play out as the chart above potentially forecasts? I haven't a clue. With the Fed fully engaged in stimulus programs domestically, as well as the ECB and Japan globally, there is excess liquidity sloshing throughout the financial system. The market rally could well rise farther, for longer, than most would expect possible.

The current belief is that the central banks will have the foresight to withdraw the stimulus before the next bubble is formed, unfortunately, there is no historical precedent that supports that claim. However, with the markets fully inflated, we have reached the point that where even a small exogenous shock will likely have an exaggerated effect on the markets. There are times when investors can safely "buy and hold" investments. This likely isn't one of them.
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 22 Feb 2013 20:00

An increasing number of top Federal Reserve officials are worried about the downside effects of their economic stimulus efforts, raising the possibility that the central bank could curb its monthly bond purchases sooner than financial markets are expecting.

Fed policymakers met at the end of last month and decided to keep buying $85 billion of Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds a month. The program is aimed at pushing down long-term interest rates to spur investment and economic growth and help lower the nation's high unemployment rate.

But minutes of that Jan. 29-30 meeting, which were released Wednesday after the usual three-week lag, indicated that "many" of the Fed policymakers were concerned about the potential costs and risks of the stimulus, namely higher inflation and the threat of destabilizing financial markets and exposing the central bank to significant losses.
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor girado007 » 22 Feb 2013 20:43

Mucha tela pero poco movimiento, no?
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 22 Feb 2013 21:54

Si empiezan a plantearse el parar el QE, el mercado se va a asustar mucho, inflacion no veo, pero grandes bajadas si...
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Re: QE 3, que esperar?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 23 Feb 2013 19:16

During the 2008 crisis, inflation levels were close to zero and unable to offset falling real asset values to stabilize nominal prices. This caused a debt deflation spiral to take hold as nominal prices fell. In contrast to the Great Depression, policymakers took extreme measures in 2008 to prevent a total collapse of the financial system and head off a deflationary spiral like that experienced in the 1930s. These policies included sharply increasing the money supply and engaging in an unprecedented amount of deficit spending.

To say the least. And all the easing and deficit spending worked to stave off financial disaster – up to a point. The problem is, we have just about reached that point – the point where, as Rogoff and Reinhart have so firmly instructed us, things turn out not to be that different after all.

Why is it that those who once got things so right are now failing to predict things accurately?

I would argue it’s because, just like me, they have been slow to recognise the awesome power of government intervention.

Once we appreciate this, and the fact that markets have de facto been nationalised, it’s easy to understand why we’re sitting on such a major inflection point when it comes to equity valuation.

Government support for debt markets has gone about as far as it can. From here on the scramble for a finite number of “safe” debt assets becomes self defeating on account of negative rates and the zero bound. What you acquire in safety you must pay for in negative yield. There are consequently no real safe debt assets anymore.

Equity on the other hand has no such cap. It has, as many people now recognise, infinite potential.
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