Un nuevo default Ruso?

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Dalamar
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Un nuevo default Ruso?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 30 Dic 2014 18:23

Hemos visto que despues de las sanciones a Rusia, y las bajadas del petroleo, la moneda Rusa ha caido masivamente, ha habido panico y Putin avisa de 2 anios de recesion, pero esta preparando al pueblo para lo peor?

What will the effect be on Russia of a sustained period of low oil prices? Eric Reguly, writing in The Globe and Mail last Saturday, points out that with foreign exchange reserves at around $400 billion, the Russian state is “in no danger of collapse” even in the event of a deep recession.

Reguly predicts the greater threat is to the Russian private sector, which has a debt overhang of some $700 billion.

“This month alone, $30-billion of that amount must be repaid, with another $100-billion coming due next year. The problem is made worse by the economic sanctions, which have made it all but impossible for Russian companies to finance themselves in Western markets,”
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Re: Un nuevo default Ruso?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 30 Dic 2014 19:15

Ya sabemos que la agencias de Rating van con retraso y tienen sus sesgos...

Fitch Ratings Ltd. lowered the outlook on 20 mid-sized Russian banks to negative, predicting that economic recession, higher funding costs and the slump in the ruble will lead to increased non-performing loans.

Their ratings were affirmed because of the banks’ “moderate resilience” to the weaker operating environment and sovereign support in the form of regulatory forbearance, liquidity provision and potential capital injections, analysts led by Moscow-based Senior Director Alexander Danilov wrote in an e-mailed report today.

Ratings companies are reassessing Russian assets after the ruble slumped 42 percent this year amid the biggest decline in oil prices in six years and sanctions that have cut the country off from Western financial markets. Standard & Poor’s said Dec. 23 that it’s considering cutting the nation’s sovereign rating to junk for the first time in a decade. Moody’s Investors Service put 16 Russian banks on review for possible downgrade on the same day.

The revision “reflects Fitch’s expectation that economic recession, significantly increased funding costs, sharp ruble depreciation, closed wholesale funding markets, a challenging liquidity situation and rising inflation will weigh on the banks’ credit profiles,” the analysts wrote in the report.

The 20 banks will be downgraded if their financial metrics worsen, macroeconomic stability deteriorates significantly or they become considerably more dependent on official support, the analysts said.

Non-performing loans to individuals surged 53 percent in the 12 months to November to 673 billion rubles ($11.8 billion), according to central bank data. Total NPLs jumped 30 percent in the period to 1.9 trillion rubles.

A forecasted 2.8 percent contraction in the Russian economy in 2015 could be deepened by tighter sanctions, accelerated capital flight or a further decline in oil prices, Fitch said today.

Most rated Russian banks not covered in today’s report already have a negative outlook at Fitch “either because their ratings are linked to those of the Russian sovereign (BBB/Negative) or because of bank-specific negative trends in their stand-alone credit profiles,” the analysts said.
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Re: Un nuevo default Ruso?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 08 Ene 2015 09:29

Esto da que pensar...
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