Sobre la rentabilidad de Warren Buffet

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Sobre la rentabilidad de Warren Buffet

Mensajepor Dalamar » 01 Oct 2012 10:12

de geoffbond007

Warren Buffet hizo su fortuna haciendo convertible arbitraje y otros tipos de spreads en el mercado de acciones Y no en el Buy and hold como el pregona. lo de Buffet es un private equity company Y no solo no pagan impuestos (legalmente) pero encima ganan dinero a costillas de otros, como hacen los Hedge Funds.

Supongamos que Buffet desea comprar a Geico (compania de seguros) Solo pone el 20% del valor de los activos (supongamos que 1 Billon) y el resto es prestado usualmente emitiendo bonos corporativos de diferentes periodos de maduracion y con un buen basis spread vs los Bonos del tesoro yanquee, para atraer mas inversionista. Una vez tienen la compania en su poder, reestructuran la compania (que puede incluir despidos masivos) Y luego piden un prestamo bancario por 1,5 Billones de dolares y automaticamente Buffet se paga asi mismo y a sus inversionistas en una reedistribucion de dividendos (que es tax free) y recuperan la inversion y ganan un alto % de su capital Y aun siguen siendo dueno de la compania (o sus maximos accionistas) Y en todo este deal aun no han pagado el primer centavo en impuestos (taxes) Ya que existe varios Loopholes (varios huecos) fiscal para los PE.

En 5 o 10 years, venden o canjean sus acciones por bonos convertibles (dependiendo de la situacion) Y revenden parte de la compania con el tiempo..

Solo Mira en detalle los deals que hizo con Goldman y mas recientemente con Bank of America. No hay forma de Buffet perder y recupera el capital en menos de un mes.

Fue asi que Buffet se hizo Billonario Y como Tambien Mitt Romnney, KKR y otros PE han ganando formidables fortunas de esa forma. Es bueno saber que la mayoria de los inversionistas de estos PR (private equities firms) son congresistas, senadores, ex presidentes, ex secretarios de estados etc etc etc.


Y de un lector de ferrerinvest:

http://www.economist.com/node/21563735? ... _s_success

IF INVESTORS had access to a time machine and could take themselves back to 1976, which stock should they buy? For Americans, the answer is clear: the best risk-adjusted return came not from a technology stock, but from Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate run by Warren Buffett. Berkshire also has a better record than all the mutual funds that have survived over that long period.

Some academics have discounted Mr Buffett as a statistical outlier. Others have simply stood in awe of his stock-picking skills, which they view as unrepeatable. But a new paper* from researchers at New York University and AQR Capital Management, an investment manager, seems to have identified the main factors that have driven the extraordinary record of the sage of Omaha.


Understanding the success of Mr Buffett requires a brief detour into investment theory. Academics view stocks in terms of their sensitivity to market movements, or “beta”. Stocks that move more violently than the market (rising 10%, for instance, when the index increases by 5%) are described as having “high beta”, whereas stocks that move less violently are considered “low beta”. The model suggests that investors demand a higher return for owning more volatile—and thus higher-risk—stocks.

The problem with the model is that, over the long run, reality has turned out to be different. Low-beta stocks have performed better, on a risk-adjusted basis, than their high-beta counterparts. As a related paper† illustrates, it should in theory be possible to exploit this anomaly by buying low-beta stocks and enhancing their return by borrowing money (leveraging the portfolio, in the jargon).

But this anomaly may exist only because most investors cannot, or will not, use such a strategy. Pension schemes and mutual funds are constrained from borrowing money. So they take the alternative approach to juicing up their portfolios: buying high-beta stocks. As a result, the average mutual-fund portfolio is more volatile than the market. And the effect of ignoring low-beta stocks is that they become underpriced.

Mr Buffett has been able to exploit this anomaly. He is well-known for buying shares in high-quality companies when they are temporarily down on their luck (Coca-Cola in the 1980s after the New Coke debacle and General Electric during the financial crisis in 2008). “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price,” he once said. He has also steered largely clear of more volatile sectors, such as technology, where he cannot be sure that a company has a sustainable advantage.

Without leverage, however, Mr Buffett’s returns would have been unspectacular. The researchers estimate that Berkshire, on average, leveraged its capital by 60%, significantly boosting the company’s return. Better still, the firm has been able to borrow at a low cost; its debt was AAA-rated from 1989 to 2009.

Yet the underappreciated element of Berkshire’s leverage are its insurance and reinsurance operations, which provide more than a third of its funding. An insurance company takes in premiums upfront and pays out claims later on; it is, in effect, borrowing from its policyholders. This would be an expensive strategy if the company undercharged for the risks it was taking. But thanks to the profitability of its insurance operations, Berkshire’s borrowing costs from this source have averaged 2.2%, more than three percentage points below the average short-term financing cost of the American government over the same period.

A further advantage has been the stability of Berkshire’s funding. As many property developers have discovered in the past, relying on borrowed money to enhance returns can be fatal when lenders lose confidence. But the long-term nature of the insurance funding has protected Mr Buffett during periods (such as the late 1990s) when Berkshire shares have underperformed the market.

These two factors—the low-beta nature of the portfolio and leverage—pretty much explain all of Mr Buffett’s superior returns, the authors find. Of course, that is quite a different thing from saying that such a long-term performance could be easily replicated. As the authors admit, Mr Buffett recognised these principles, and started applying them, half a century before they wrote their paper.
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Sobre la rentabilidad de Warren Buffet

Mensajepor Dalamar » 21 Oct 2012 14:54

The portfolio managers at Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A)(BRK.B) have increased the company’s stake in DaVita Inc. (NYSE:DVA) by 0.65% for approximately $110 per share on Oct. 16 and 17, 2012, as reported by GuruFocus Real Time Picks . Berkshire bought 63,928 shares in the transaction, which brought its total current shares owned to 10,547,040. The DaVita purchase was Berkshire’s fourth in less than a month and brought its ownership of the company to 10.5%. Berkshire initiated a position in DaVita in the fourth quarter of 2011 when the price was at $71 on average. The price has increased 56% since then and reached a new all-time high of $113.48 on Thursday.
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Re: Sobre la rentabilidad de Warren Buffet

Mensajepor Dalamar » 25 Oct 2012 05:41

El multimillonario inversor Warren Buffett ha reconocido que sigue apostando por la banca. En una entrevista a la CNBC ha reconocido que ha aumentado sus posiciones en Wells Fargo, el cuarto mayor banco de EE UU. Además ha informado que ha vendido parte de su participación en el gigante de la cosmética de Procter & Gamble.
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Re: Sobre la rentabilidad de Warren Buffet

Mensajepor Dalamar » 29 Oct 2012 06:48

Parece que esta acumulando DaVita, es o no es interesante seguir lo que hacen los insiders? El Bot de twitter InsidersBuyingBot muestra en tiempo real los F4 filings, siguele para saber lo que hacen los insiders:
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Re: Sobre la rentabilidad de Warren Buffet

Mensajepor Dalamar » 30 Oct 2012 17:05

La economía global se está frenando, sobre todo, por los problemas de Europa y la desaceleración del continente asiático. Respecto a Europa, no ha querido dar su opinión sobre si piensa que el euro acabará desapareciendo o saldrá adelante. Simplemente ha argumentado que Europa tiene muchos problemas que solucionar aún y es por eso que Berkshire Hathaway, aún está alejado de Europa.

Respecto a Estados Unidos, Buffett piensa que está comenzando una recuperación muy lenta, paulatina y modesta, donde ya se puede observar un rebote en los precios del sector inmobiliario. Asegura que Estados Unidos está comenzando ese proceso de recuperación y que gane quien gane las próximas elecciones, las políticas monetarias de Bernanke, darán sus frutos. Eso sí, insiste nuevamente en que los negocios americanos irían mucho mejor si los líderes políticos solucionaran las problemáticas fiscales.

Buffett apuesta por la banca, aunque advierte que, aún siendo un buen negocio, el inversor debe tener en cuenta que los bancos no llegarán a alcanzar los picos de precios que se alcanzaron durante el boom económico. Al menos, él piensa que probablemente no viva para verlos llegar a esos niveles.
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Re: Sobre la rentabilidad de Warren Buffet

Mensajepor Dalamar » 21 Nov 2012 06:49

Nuevas empresas en la cartera:

Deere (NSYE:DE) (fabricante de tractores y maquinaria agrícola) compra 4 millones de acciones, es decir una inversión que rondrá los 340 millones de US.

Wabco Holdings ( NYSE:WBC) fabricante de componente electrónicos para camiones y autobuses, compra 1,6 millones de acciones una inversión que rondará los 90 millones USD.

Precision Castparts (NYSE:PCP ) fabricante de componentes para la industria aeroespacial, compra de 1,25 millones de acciones , una inversión de unos 200 millones USD.

Incremento de posiciones en la cartera:

Incrementa posicones en Wells Fargo, Bank of New York Mellon, General Motors, Direct TV, DaVita, National OilWell, y Viacom.

Reduce posiciones en:

Johnson & Johnson, Kraft Foods, Lee Enterprises, Procter & Gamble y US Bancorp.

Sale totalmente de:

CVS Caremark Corp.


Visto en GurusBlog
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Re: Sobre la rentabilidad de Warren Buffet

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Ene 2013 06:06

Berkshire Hathaway - Warren Buffett

Principales posiciones de la cartera de Berkshire Hathaway - Warren Buffett
Empresa Ticker % Cartera Último Movimiento
Gurusblog Fecha: 31/09/2012
Coca Cola KO 20,14%
Wells Fargo WFC 19,36% Aumenta
IBM IBM 18,59% Aumenta
American Express AXP 11,14%
Procter & Gamble PG 4,86% Reduce
Wal-Mart WMT 4,57%
US Bancorp USB 2,78% Reduce
Direct TV DTV 2,05% Aumenta
Conoco Phillips COP 1,83% Reduce
Kraft Foods KRFT 1,67% Reduce
Phillips 66 PSX 1,67%
Moody's MCO 1,66%
Davita DVA 1,4% Aumenta
Washington Post WPO 0,83%
Liberty Media LMCA 0,75%
Total sobre Cartera 93,3%
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Re: Sobre la rentabilidad de Warren Buffet

Mensajepor McThai » 15 Ene 2013 00:26

Además ha entrado recientemente en John Deere, que a mi particularmente me gusta mucho por su gran exposición al sector agrícola, que creo que dará mucho que hablar en los próximos años.

También invirtió en BYD, que creo que es su primera inversión en China, fabricante de coches eléctricos entre otros.

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Re: Sobre la rentabilidad de Warren Buffet

Mensajepor Dalamar » 18 Feb 2013 13:18

Warren Buffett has given up on value investing

Warren Buffett was unquestionably one of the world’s greatest ever value investors. Starting out in the mid-1950s, he practised ‘cigar butt’ investing: buying distressed, hated companies that were selling for a fraction of what they were really worth. Over the last 57 years, his investment gains have snowballed into the conglomerate that is now Berkshire Hathaway.

No doubt Buffett and Berkshire would love to keep buying these types of companies. But this is no longer possible. For one thing, there are very few cheap ‘cigar butt’-type investments out there right now. For another, even if he did find some, Berkshire’s vast size ($424bn of assets) means that the individual deals would not make much of a difference to the company’s fortunes.

These days, Berkshire has to spend large amounts of money buying stakes in market-leading giants with steady, predictable profits. We’re talking about the likes of Tesco, IBM and Coca-Cola here. These sorts of companies are meant to keep Berkshire’s profits and asset value growing in the years ahead.
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Re: Sobre la rentabilidad de Warren Buffet

Mensajepor Dalamar » 23 Feb 2013 20:34

For starters, Buffett likely took note of the fact that tangible book value stands at $29 a share. Even after an impressive recent spurt, shares trade just above book value. Also, Archer Daniels is copying the moves made so successfully by rival Bunge --opening a series of grain- and soybean-processing facilities around South America to capitalize on a region that is less likely to experience drought.

In addition, Archer Daniels is slowly de-emphasizing ethanol production, which had consumed a huge amount of capital with only modest returns. The company is the industry's biggest ethanol producer, and if rivals also curtail production, then ethanol pricing will likely firm up. If the U.S. government moves ahead with plans to adopt "E15" (gasoline that uses 15% ethanol), then demand and pricing should also boost Archer Daniels' results. (Gasoline prices have also been rising this winter, which makes ethanol comparatively more attractive, even if E15 doesn't come to pass and just remains E10.)

As it stands, the national quota for ethanol will rise 4.5% this year to 13.8 billion gallons, though that remains below the industry's structural capacity of 14.7 billion gallons.

Of course, the near- and mid-term future for Archer Daniels will hinge on U.S. growing conditions during coming quarters. The company is very volume-sensitive, so if our nation's corn output rebounds, then Archer Daniels' processing facilities will be closer to full utilization. And a firm corn crop reopens the door to U.S. exports. "ADM has greater exposure to U.S. corn exports than Bunge, and would likely be the bigger beneficiary of the increase in U.S. corn exports we expect starting in February," noted analysts at Morgan Stanley.

To be sure, Buffett never takes a big position in a big company on a whim that climate conditions will produce favorable results in coming quarters. Instead, he likes businesses that have wide moats and generate considerable free cash flow. Archer Daniels sure has a wide moat, but the cash flow generation has been erratic. The company alternates years of positive free cash flow with negative ones. On a cumulative basis, it has generated a $5.6 billion free cash flow loss during the past six years.

Yet in the past few quarters, management has begun speaking of a much greater emphasis on capital allocation, returns on investment, and importantly, free cash flow. Indeed, during the past three years, Archer Daniels has invested roughly $6 billion in capital expenditures (capex) to boost the profitability of its divisions. Those gains aren't yet in evidence, due in large part to the drought of 2012, but should bear fruit as crop conditions return to normal. That's surely what Buffett is anticipating.

The stars were last aligned for this company in fiscal (June) 2009, when Archer Daniels generated $3.1 billion in positive free cash flow. Compared to the current $21 billion market value, this ratio apparently impresses Buffett.

The key question: Will Archer Daniels return to that financial strength soon? Analysts at BMO Securities believe so. "ADM's earnings power likely has increased with recent capex projects that have expanded the company's capacity and reduced its cost structure." Although per-share profits have been stuck around $2.50 in fiscal (June) 2012 and likely again in fiscal 2013, earnings per share should approach $3 in fiscal 2014, according to BMO.

Risks to Consider: Precipitation remains below average across much of the United States this winter, so a drought in 2013 as well can't be ruled out.

Archer Daniels' turnaround story has kind of slipped under the radar. The company hasn't made bold headlines with its $6 billion business revamp, preferring to let actions (and cash flow) speak for themselves. Although shares have moved up off of their lows, they remain well below the mid-$40s range seen in the past major agricultural cycle.
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