¿Funciona el análisis técnico?

wenomeno
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Re: ¿Funciona el análisis técnico?

Mensajepor wenomeno » 23 Mar 2013 18:00

MFE - maximum favorable excursion

MAE - maximum adverse excursion

yo lo ví aquí por primera vez

http://www.x-trader.net/foro/viewtopic. ... 18#p129018

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Dalamar
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Re: ¿Funciona el análisis técnico?

Mensajepor Dalamar » 19 Ene 2016 18:33

Un hilo interesante sobre este tema: https://www.quora.com/What-do-hedge-fun ... l-analysis

Como es de esperar, el analisis tecnico simple no es usado por los profesionales.

Michael Harris, Quant trader, Author of Fooled by Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a broad subject that covers a wide spectrum of techniques, from naive charting to complex quantitative algo trading. Some hedge funds use quantitative technical analysis and some use fundamental analysis. The funds that still use naive technical analysis, such as trend-following and momentum for example, are experiencing diminishing returns due to the fact that the strategies are now known and are losing their edge. More information about CTA returns can be found in this article: Evidence Based Analysis: CTA Gross Underperformance


Vladimir Novakovski, 8.5 years in hedge funds

I think my view from Why are complex mathematics / statistics used in trading when plain technical / fundamental analysis works? reflects the perception of industry leaders:

No one is really trading using simple technical analysis and making money anymore.

Some discretionary traders look at technical indicators because it helps them think about the markets but their decisions are not primarily grounded in those indicators. Fundamental analysis is also often useful, but again, it does not translate into a simple, rules-based strategy that works.


Joseph Wang, Ex-VP Quant - Investment banking - Hong Kong

Technical analysis is to quantitative finance what astrology is to astrophysics.

The other thing is that a lot of technical analysis becomes obsolete once you have access to the order book which most hedge funds do, and which a lot of day traders don't.


John Yau
Former co-head at Citadel in London for fixed income portfolio management

Most technical analysis is garbage, but among all the crazy technical indicators out there, some are actually capable of generating alpha for a while. There are giant hedge funds out there that more or less rely on some technical analysis albeit with a far more rigorous quantitative bent -- Man AHL and Winton (founded by David Harding, the H in AHL) come to mind; both manage upwards to $10+ billion.


Si hablamos de Winton... vamos a Kaggle: https://www.kaggle.com/c/the-winton-sto ... -challenge

Y podemos ver por donde van tirando estos... Machine Learning!

"I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer" - Warren Buffett

Tambien hay algunos que dicen que si, que el analisis tecnico se usa mucho en Hedge funds y funciona, pero ninguno con credibilidad dentro de Quora.
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