El futuro de la energia

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Dalamar
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El futuro de la energia

Mensajepor Dalamar » 05 Nov 2012 09:43

Del Estudio de ExxonMobil The Outlook for Energy: a Vision to 2040

    - 2040: la demanda global de energía será un 30% superior a la actual, se deberá casi exclusivamente a las economías emergentes, en especial China.
    - El petróleo seguirá siendo, con diferencia, el combustible más utilizado, sin embargo, alrededor del 2025 el gas natural superará al carbón como segunda fuente energética mundial. Se calcula que la demanda de gas natural aumentará un 60% hasta 2040 mientras que el carbón decrecerá aproximadamente un 10%.
    - El petróleo, el gas natural y el carbón representarán el 80% del total de fuentes de energía consumidas.
    - En Europa las energías renovables serán las más usadas en 2040 en los Estados Unidos será el gas natural y en China seguirá siendo el carbón.
    - En 2040 cuatro de cada diez unidades de energía producida en el mundo se usarán para generar electricidad.
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Re: El futuro de la energia

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Nov 2012 18:45

Mucho se ha hablado del oil peak y muchos apocalipticos y conspiranoicos pronosticaban que ya estariamos en serios problemas, cual es la realidad? (Fuente: Daniel Lacalle)

"There is no shortage of oil anywhere. OPEC has strong spare capacity. The market is very well supplied" Abdalla Salem El-Badri

"This is the 33rd Oil & Money Conference. In 1979 in the first one the Herald Tribune run the headline where President Carter said oil production had peaked, and the press said OPEC production would collapse to 15mmbpd in 2010. Here we are, global production is at record 87mmbpd, and OPEC produces 30mmbpd"


Abdalla Salem El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General
"Call on OPEC falls 500kbpd in 2013" "everybody is making money out of high prices" "when we make money the G7 makes more money'

Maria Van der Hoeven, Executive Director of the IEA

"There is plenty of growth despite the crisis"

"We believe the US will overtake Saudi Arabia in oil production 2030" (Find IEA's World Energy Outlook here)

Maria Van der Hoeven (IEA) and El-Badri (OPEC) agreed "there is no shortage of oil, the market is very well supplied, inventories are strong at 59 days and spare capacity remains high at 3.5mmbpd" "There are worldwide more stocks than ever"

Adam Sieminski, IEA:
"US energy independence is not a pie in the sky. It's realistic"

"US in 2005 imported 2/3 oil; 2011, 49 percent. Forecast 2014: below 30. By 2035, 15 percent"

On EROEI: "as long as consumers are willing to pay for it and resources are there, consuming some energy to produce energy is fine"

Orlando Cabrales, President of Colombia's National Hydrocarbons Agency:
"Colombia has never ever intervened any oil and gas contract" "we welcome investment, it's in our DNA"

Colombia: 2.3bn barrels of oil proven reserves (up from 1.3bn in 2007), production at c1mmbpd.

Iraqi Deputy PM Hussain Al-Shahristal:
9 to 9.5 million barrels of oil from Iraq per day suggested as long term target.

Success rate of finding gas and oil in Iraq is at 70%. More of Iraq needs to be explored

Iraq is on its way to produce 4mmbpd in twelve months time

Christophe de Margerie CEO of Total:

Strong commitment to sustainability and a balanced energy mix with all energies, renewable and fossil, together.

Fossil energies to represent 76% of energy supply in 2030. Strong growth from solar and biofuels but small impact.

Renewables will not change the world. Oil, gas, coal = future. We have to make them 'cleaner.'

"I'm surprised when people say solar energy is becoming competitive. How can you be competitive when you're losing money?"

"We are facing a revolution in energy from North America" (re shale oil and gas)

"We have all the oil and gas we need. Apologies to those who want us to be running out"

"We have a lot of oil and a lot if gas, a lot of discoveries. We will have oil and gas for hundreds of years".

"There is no peak oil but there is peak capacity short term" "We have to more vocal and tell people we are not sorry, we are doing our best".


Mike Daly, BP:
"The future is going to be technologically challenging but not more than it has been in the past"

"Industry spending on exploration: $90 billion a year; 5 years ago was $20 billion -- and $50 B in unconventional"


Victor Zhikai Gao, director, China Naional Association of International Studies
"How does China view the prospect of US energy independence? The sooner, the better, the longer the better"

Promoting the concept of "Americhina": China gives US full support of energy sufficiency, China will provide market and capital for other oil producers.

Even better: "Chinadarica": China+Canada+America. New trilateral energy relation. Win-win situation. China will help US achieve energy independence and will help Canada become an oil superpower.

China 2020: Will be 20% of global trade, 20% of global economy, largest importer of oil/gas. US, Russia and OPEC to benefit.

Antonio Merino, Repsol
"Oil price in gold terms has not changed. Most of oil price move is explained by currency debasement and QEs"

"$1 trillion in AAA assets gone, global deleveraging. The oil market is very dependent on very few specialists"
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Re: El futuro de la energia

Mensajepor Dalamar » 04 Dic 2012 13:21

Earlier this year, amid concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, oil prices started to rise, with Brent hitting over $120 a barrel.

Then the Saudis intervened. Oil minister Ali Naimi publicly pledged to raise production and push down prices. He stated that “Saudi Arabia has invested a great deal to sustain its capacity, and it will use spare production capacity to supply the oil market with any additional required volumes. We have done it many times before, we will do it again”.

Almost immediately, prices started to fall. It also seemed to suggest that the ability of the Saudis to influence the global oil supply was undiminished.

However, a closer look at the figures reveals that it might be tough for them to keep this up in the long term. The problem is that the increase in supply didn’t come from drilling new wells, or even getting a better yield from existing ones.

Instead, it came from bringing wells that the Saudis had previously abandoned back online. These have very limited reserves. This means that they are hardly a long-term solution.

Even keeping production at existing levels may be difficult, let alone increasing it. There have been queries about the quality of oil that the Manifa project, due to start pumping oil in 2014, will produce. And even if it does live up to hopes, the expiry of other wells will mean that overall output remains the same.

There are also big question marks over whether the Saudis are telling the truth about their levels of reserves. Last year, leaked US diplomatic emails suggested that an ex-head of exploration at Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, privately estimated that the country’s reserves are 30% lower than the official figures. He also suggested that “no amount of effort” by the Saudis will be able to stop “a steady output in decline”.

Peaking production is not the only threat to Saudi Arabia’s role as the world’s largest oil producer. The country is increasingly going to need to keep more of its resources for itself.

According to Citigroup, growth in the population and the economy are drastically increasing energy consumption. If current trends continue, Saudi Arabia will become a net importer of crude by 2030.
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Re: El futuro de la energia

Mensajepor Dalamar » 05 Dic 2012 07:23

Los paises que tienen el petroleo, tambien tienen el sol y el desierto...

OPEC member Qatar says to start embracing solar energy: Gulf state aims to raise the share of solar power in electricity generation to 16 percent by 2018
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Re: El futuro de la energia

Mensajepor Dalamar » 31 Dic 2012 06:31

Precio de un Watt de electricidad generado mediante celulas fotovoltaicas:
Adjuntos
costWatt.png
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Re: El futuro de la energia

Mensajepor firehand » 05 Ene 2013 01:02

Dalamar escribió:Precio de un Watt de electricidad generado mediante celulas fotovoltaicas:


Uff! 0.74 $/W son 740 $/kW... una locura! Y encima es por Watt generado, a eso añádele el coste de instalar y mantener el sistema de regulación y acoplamiento a la red.


El futuro de la generación energética está en el proyecto ITER (fusión nuclear): http://www.iter.org/

Hasta entonces no creo que vaya a haber grandes cambios: se seguirá expandiendo el gas y los aerogeneradores, manteniendo el petróleo y quizás aumentando la nuclear de fisión. La energía solar sigue siendo endiabladamente cara y no parece tener solución a corto plazo.

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Re: El futuro de la energia

Mensajepor Dalamar » 05 Ene 2013 07:45

El coste se va reduciendo a gran velocidad y yo ccreo que tenemos 2 o 3 decadas de margen gracias al fracking.
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Re: El futuro de la energia

Mensajepor Dalamar » 08 Ene 2013 08:57

The IEA projects U.S. oil production will rise to 10 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2015 and 11.1 million bpd in 2020 before slipping to 9.2 million bpd by 2035, according to Reuters

Of that 10 million bpd number, about 2 million is liquids. Meaning, there could be roughly 8 million bpd of crude oil available for refineries; while some liquids will make its ways into refinery complexes, they are predominantly feed stocks into other industries and show up as part of the total petroleum mix of the U.S.

The lower-class in China and other emerging markets do not have the means to spend enough yet. A large part of the 3000 US$ average Chinese salary goes into strongly rising rents and food, with 20% becoming savings. A real middle-class with spending power does not exist yet, but will emerge in the next ten years.

In 5 or 10 years time, a middle-class in China and other Asian emerging markets will finally emerge and consume. Boston Consulting Group speaks of another 160 million people in China, people who possibly do not possess a car today, but will earn at least 20000 US$ by 2020 and buy one.

The daily costs for importing foreign oil to the United States will be the same in 2020 as in 2012. By 2035 the import costs will nearly double.
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Re: El futuro de la energia

Mensajepor Dalamar » 13 Ene 2013 11:39

A global context of decreased accessibility to low-cost fossil fuel sources and an estimated three-fold increase in world energy demand by 2100.

The energy source that powers the Sun and the stars could provide a safe, non-carbon emitting and virtually limitless source of energy. In ITER, 1 gram of hydrogen will be heated up to 150 million degrees to allow fusion between nuclei.

This should release a power of about 500 MW, i.e. ten times the power that will be injected in the machine. Achieving such a “gain factor” of 10 would mean that fusion could become a genuine source of energy on Earth.

China, the European Union, India, Japan, Korea, Russia and the United States have joined together to launch one of the largest and most ambitious international science projects ever conducted: ITER, the Latin word for “the way”, which will bring fusion to the threshold of industrial exploitation.

On 28 June 2005, the seven ITER Members unanimously agreed to build ITER in Cadarache, in southern France. Since that date, the ITER Organisation has been established and 500 collaborators recruited; Domestic Agencies have been created in each ITER Member, and construction work launched (2010). The ITER fusion machine is a “tokamak”-type reactor (Russian acronym for “toroidal chamber and magnetic coils”).

Component manufacturing is progressing in factories throughout the world. Beginning in 2014, components for the ITER Tokamak—some of them exceptionally large and heavy—will be arriving in France from the 7 Members.

During the peak years of 2014-2017, on-site assembly and construction operations will require a work force of close to 4,000. ITER will become an operational laboratory in November 2020 with its First Plasma.

ITER is one of the most complex scientific and engineering projects in the world today. For the ITER Members, this translates to challenging R&D and industrial projects that are placing their laboratories and industries at the forefront of technological progress.

The complexity of the ITER design has already pushed a whole range of leading-edge technologies to new limits. Innovative solutions are being developed to address specific ITER challenges. ITER requires an extremely wide range of industrial systems: vacuum, remote-handling, optics, cryogenics, materials, high heat flux components etc.

ITER is a unique international project. The project relies on the close working relationship of a large number of participating nations, representing over 50 percent of the world’s population and 80 percent of the planet’s gross industrial product.

In the interest of advancing toward viable fusion energy, these nations are pooling scientific and technological knowhow and resources. Every day, men and women from 34 different nations are “inventing” new ways of working together, both here in Cadarache, and at the Domestic Agencies.

ITER is also an education project as the 34 participant countries have decided to learn together and share the new technology. If ITER succeeds, it will open the doors not only to a new source of energy on Earth but also to peace worldwide as the very large inventory of hydrogen (the fusion fuel) on Earth is expected to diminish geopolitical tensions.
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Re: El futuro de la energia

Mensajepor Dalamar » 18 Feb 2013 07:24

En EE.UU. tienen “libros blancos” para todo, incluso para ayudar a los inversores de capital riesgo a invertir en tecnologías de fusión nuclear comercial. La recomendación es invertir unos 500 M$ (millones de dólares) en 10 años, pero en dos fases. En los primeros 3 años hay que invertir unos 20 M$ para que el innovador demuestre que su diseño funciona. En la segunda fase, si el diseño ha funcionado, se invertirá el resto del dinero para obtener un prototipo comercial. Si en 10 años el innovador no ha demostrado que su prototipo comercial funciona, el inversor de capital riesgo debe abandonar de forma inmediata. Así de sencillo. Esta “hoja de ruta” para el inversor es el resultado de un comité del ARPA-E del DOE. Acojona pensarlo. Sólo 3 años y sólo 20 M$ para demostrar lo que miles de investigadores con miles de millones de dólares no han logrado en los últimos 60 años. Por fortuna, en EE.UU. hay muchos inversores de capital riesgo que están apostando por proyectos de este tipo. El beneficio esperado para quien logre desarrollar los primeros reactores de fusión comerciales ronda los diez mil millones de dólares (un factor de retorno para la inversión de 20). No es de extrañar que haya muchos proyectos que buscan obtener reactores compactos de fusión nuclear comerciales esparcidos por todo el mundo (siendo los mejor financiados los de EEUU y Canadá). El problema es que muy pocos han logrado los 20 M$ de inversión necesarios para entrar en la carrera descrita por el “libro blanco” de la fusión nuclear compacta comercial. Más información para los inversores interesados en Simon Woodruff et al., “Path to Market for Compact Modular Fusion Power Cores,” Journal of Fusion Energy
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