Mucho se ha hablado del oil peak y muchos apocalipticos y conspiranoicos pronosticaban que ya estariamos en serios problemas, cual es la realidad? (Fuente: Daniel Lacalle)
"There is no shortage of oil anywhere. OPEC has strong spare capacity. The market is very well supplied" Abdalla Salem El-Badri
"This is the 33rd Oil & Money Conference. In 1979 in the first one the Herald Tribune run the headline where President Carter said oil production had peaked, and the press said OPEC production would collapse to 15mmbpd in 2010. Here we are, global production is at record 87mmbpd, and OPEC produces 30mmbpd"
Abdalla Salem El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General
"Call on OPEC falls 500kbpd in 2013" "everybody is making money out of high prices" "when we make money the G7 makes more money'
Maria Van der Hoeven, Executive Director of the IEA
"There is plenty of growth despite the crisis"
"We believe the US will overtake Saudi Arabia in oil production 2030" (Find IEA's World Energy Outlook here)
Maria Van der Hoeven (IEA) and El-Badri (OPEC) agreed "there is no shortage of oil, the market is very well supplied, inventories are strong at 59 days and spare capacity remains high at 3.5mmbpd" "There are worldwide more stocks than ever"
Adam Sieminski, IEA:
"US energy independence is not a pie in the sky. It's realistic"
"US in 2005 imported 2/3 oil; 2011, 49 percent. Forecast 2014: below 30. By 2035, 15 percent"
On EROEI: "as long as consumers are willing to pay for it and resources are there, consuming some energy to produce energy is fine"
Orlando Cabrales, President of Colombia's National Hydrocarbons Agency:
"Colombia has never ever intervened any oil and gas contract" "we welcome investment, it's in our DNA"
Colombia: 2.3bn barrels of oil proven reserves (up from 1.3bn in 2007), production at c1mmbpd.
Iraqi Deputy PM Hussain Al-Shahristal:
9 to 9.5 million barrels of oil from Iraq per day suggested as long term target.
Success rate of finding gas and oil in Iraq is at 70%. More of Iraq needs to be explored
Iraq is on its way to produce 4mmbpd in twelve months time
Christophe de Margerie CEO of Total:
Strong commitment to sustainability and a balanced energy mix with all energies, renewable and fossil, together.
Fossil energies to represent 76% of energy supply in 2030. Strong growth from solar and biofuels but small impact.
Renewables will not change the world. Oil, gas, coal = future. We have to make them 'cleaner.'
"I'm surprised when people say solar energy is becoming competitive. How can you be competitive when you're losing money?"
"We are facing a revolution in energy from North America" (re shale oil and gas)
"We have all the oil and gas we need. Apologies to those who want us to be running out"
"We have a lot of oil and a lot if gas, a lot of discoveries. We will have oil and gas for hundreds of years".
"There is no peak oil but there is peak capacity short term" "We have to more vocal and tell people we are not sorry, we are doing our best".
Mike Daly, BP:
"The future is going to be technologically challenging but not more than it has been in the past"
"Industry spending on exploration: $90 billion a year; 5 years ago was $20 billion -- and $50 B in unconventional"
Victor Zhikai Gao, director, China Naional Association of International Studies
"How does China view the prospect of US energy independence? The sooner, the better, the longer the better"
Promoting the concept of "Americhina": China gives US full support of energy sufficiency, China will provide market and capital for other oil producers.
Even better: "Chinadarica": China+Canada+America. New trilateral energy relation. Win-win situation. China will help US achieve energy independence and will help Canada become an oil superpower.
China 2020: Will be 20% of global trade, 20% of global economy, largest importer of oil/gas. US, Russia and OPEC to benefit.
Antonio Merino, Repsol
"Oil price in gold terms has not changed. Most of oil price move is explained by currency debasement and QEs"
"$1 trillion in AAA assets gone, global deleveraging. The oil market is very dependent on very few specialists"
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