La revolucion del Fracking y del Shale Oil

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La revolucion del Fracking y del Shale Oil

Mensajepor Dalamar » 29 Jun 2012 21:58

Con el fracking las reservas de gas de muchos paises se incrementan enormemente y ultimamente se han modificado muchos procesos industriales para usar gas en vez de petroleo, el fracking tambien permite acceder a shale oil, y por lo tanto hay mucho mas petroleo disponible del que se pensaba, y eso seguramente de margen mas que suficiente de tiempo para el siguiente avance energetico antes de que el petroleo se vuelva prohibitivo.

"We Could Stop Importing Oil From the Middle East Today If We Wanted To"

"The shift, a result of technological advances that are unlocking new sources of oil in shale-rock formations, oil sands and deep beneath the ocean floor, carries profound consequences for the U.S. economy and energy security. A good portion of this surprising bounty comes from the widespread use of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a technique perfected during the last decade in U.S. fields previously deemed not worth tampering with."
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Re: La revolucion del Fracking y del Shale Oil

Mensajepor Dalamar » 30 Jun 2012 08:40

Que nos dice google trends del tema?
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La revolucion del Fracking y del Shale Oil

Mensajepor Dalamar » 05 Jul 2012 18:38

Jim rogers dice:

Well, If natural gas stays this low compared to oil prices, it does give an incentive to develop natural gas powered vehicles and I think we are going to see more and more developments here. Is it going to end the use of oil, combustion engines? Probably not any time soon. Someday it could, but someday is a long way away. - in OilPrice
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Re: La revolucion del Fracking y del Shale Oil

Mensajepor Guillermo » 07 Jul 2012 23:37

Curiosamente mi acercamiento al fracking fue a través de ver unos carteles en contra del mismo colgados en casas de mi pueblo de origen,

http://www.fracturahidraulicano.info/

En algunos países se ha prohibido está práctica:

http://www.diagonalperiodico.net/Bulgar ... -EEUU.html

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La revolucion del Fracking y del Shale Oil

Mensajepor Dalamar » 08 Jul 2012 05:22

Muchas gracias! Muy interesante!
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La revolucion del Fracking y del Shale Oil

Mensajepor Dalamar » 08 Jul 2012 22:47

Jim Rogers:

U.S. natural gas is somewhere near its bottom, in my view. The problem is I expect to see serious economic problems in 2013 and 2014 in the U.S. If and when that happens, we're going to see a final panic in the markets and the economy and everything will have a crescendo and a selling climax. We're certainly a lot closer than we were. Although, when you have a selling climax in markets, you go to levels much lower than most people believe possible and that may happen.
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Re: La revolucion del Fracking y del Shale Oil

Mensajepor Dalamar » 07 Oct 2012 13:42

The prospects for exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) are one of the primary movers in further development of shale basins in North America. Even Russian giant Gazprom (no fan of shale gas) has acknowledged that the U.S. will probably comprise at least 9% of the global LNG market supply by 2020, from zero currently.
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Re: La revolucion del Fracking y del Shale Oil

Mensajepor Dalamar » 25 Oct 2012 11:05

Now the Shale Oil revolution is upon us.

Remember what shale gas did to natural gas prices? Down 54% from the peak. Imagine what shale oil can do.

Peak-Oil defenders, gas lobbies and environmental groups all said shale gas was not economical below $8/mmcfe, they said that it was a “bluff” and that the decline rates would make the “fad” disappear as soon as natural gas reached $6/mmcfe. It reached $2.5/mmcfe (now at $4.5) and the rig count is at all-time highs (890), companies continue to make good returns (18% IRR) despite pressure pumping and service costs rising, the environmental concerns are being addressed swiftly and adequately and decline rates have proven to be significantly less aggressive.

The NY Times battle against shale gas, driven by half-truths and questionable analysis, is lost. No one denies the massive resource base, even in Europe and China, and the opportunity to supply cheap, abundant energy.

Well, shale oil could generate a similar transformation impact for the oil market.

The United States has over 24 billion barrels of recoverable oil in shale and Argentina over 200 million barrels of recoverable shale oil. Abundant oil supply delivered thanks to hydraulic fracking, a tried, tested and proven extraction technology. Companies like Anadarko, Oasis and Marathon are already developing shale oil fast. Repsol could benefit from this revolution in Argentina. First things first and let’s start with the U.S.

The oil sector is rubbing its hands at the prospect of a revolution which already generates 18-20% IRRs using a base price of $ 60/bbl.

Shale oil production in the United States has grown dramatically, from a modest 275,000 barrels/ day to an estimated 400,000 barrels/day in 2011 and up to 510,000 barrels/day in 2012. To give you an idea, this is the equivalent of Khursaniyah, one of the star oil fields of Saudi Arabia.
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Re: La revolucion del Fracking y del Shale Oil

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Nov 2012 15:36

You might have seen yesterday's headline in the Wall Street Journal: "U.S. Redraws World Oil Map."

As the article explains, U.S. oil production is now on pace to surpass Saudi Arabia by 2020. This would make the United States world's largest oil producer. We're already the second-largest natural gas producer, according to 2010 EIA estimates.

It's all thanks to the U.S. shale boom that has unlocked billions of barrels of oil and trillions of feet of natural gas from the Appalachian Mountains to the Pacific Coast, from the Bakken in North Dakota to the shale fields of southern Texas.

But all of this fracking has caused some serious economic and environmental problems.

We also have questions surrounding the amount of water required to frack these formations (the process needs a lot of water to break open rock and release hydrocarbons), as well as the ongoing public health fears from the chemicals used.

Pennsylvania alone has more than 400,000 plugged wells and many more closed coalmines. Most were discontinued some time ago, but there is a double whammy here. Many were capped or sealed poorly. It is difficult even to determine their locations.

As shale gas extractions become more endemic, environmental cleanup expenses are rising as a result of increasing run off, drainage, and spills from much older locations.
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Re: La revolucion del Fracking y del Shale Oil

Mensajepor Dalamar » 11 Dic 2012 07:02

Global shale oil reserves are currently estimated at over three trillion barrels recoverable under current technology. The US has well over two trillion of those barrels.

As far as I can research from true experts, properly done, horizontal drilling and fracking pose no danger to the environment.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that over 750 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas and 24 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil have been discovered in shale plays. Except that they are reportedly having to update their update. Just five days ago they announced new projections that suggest US energy imports (as a share of production) will fall in half in the next 30 years.

Harold Hamm and Continental Resources drilled the first horizontal well to use fracking in the Bakken in 2004. He knows something about the region. He is now telling us that there may be four more layers (which are called benches) of shale oil and gas below the Upper Bakken formation, including the promising Three Forks stratum. Just a week ago (onDecember 3), Continental announced they had completed a well in the “third bench.” The Three Forks could be a bigger story than the Upper Bakken formation, as it is much thicker. Hamm is projecting almost a trillion barrels of reserves in the area.

When we went into the “office” of the rig there was a young man who looked to be in his early 30s. He was a “tool-pusher,” which means he ran the rig. Clearly very smart and trustworthy, but he didn’t have a college degree, just lots of oil-field experience. He works 28 days, 12 hours a day straight and then takes two weeks off to go see his wife and kids. When working he lives in a small room at the rig. He makes $350,000 a year. The kid is one of those millionaires and billionaires that Obama wants to tax.

A starting salary on the rig is $120,000 a year, with no experience. But you work your tail off for very long hours. The consultant who oversaw the rig operation for the investors made around $250,000. (By the way, he could tell me to the dollar what his costs were for the well during the hour we were there. There were very sophisticated cost controls.)

An oil-truck driver makes $150-175,000 a year. All that oil has to be taken by truck to a railroad terminal and loaded onto railcars, to form 100-car trains that take the oil to refineries around the country. Loren took us to his new train terminal, where the trucks were lined up to empty their tanks and go back to another well for a load. All up and down the line, there are jobs that are begging to be filled.

The US will be exporting natural gas within 3-4 years from McAllen, Texas, and other LNG ports are in various stages of permitting. Natural gas in Japan is over $15, compared to $3.78 this morning in the US. Europe is in double digits ($11.83). There is an arbitrage available here. Even an economist can do the math.

But our real advantage may not come in exporting raw gas but rather in the chemical products you need gas to make. Not just fertilizers but feedstocks for plastics and other organic chemicals.

The Financial Times wrote last Saturday, "Europeans are already complaining that cheap US gas is encouraging a flight of energy intensive businesses [to the US]. How can, say Europe's chemical producers – buying expensive Russian gas – compete with US rivals guaranteed access to cut-price feedstock?” (Hat tip Vincent Farrell.)

One way for them to compete is, perhaps, to develop their own (seemingly considerable) shale oil and gas fields. But there seems to be a great deal of resistance to that. And that reluctance will help the US close its trade deficit.

The US is lucky; there is plenty of oil and gas below our borders, with much of it in private hands. There are estimates the US could be energy independent within 7-10 years

Analysis suggests that oil prices will have to remain high or go even higher for shale oil to be profitable. I think he is right on that. I have always maintained that we are not likely to run out of oil for a very long time; we will just run out of cheap oil. Thankfully, there are alternatives being developed over time. The cost of producing solar energy has dropped about 50% per decade for a long time. In another few decades solar will be quite competitive with carbon-based energy. Nuclear remains my favourite shorter-term source, but it confronts considerable political opposition in many countries.
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