La mineras y el oro

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Dalamar
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La mineras y el oro

Mensajepor Dalamar » 15 Mar 2013 19:28

Las mineras han caido un 40% cuando el oro subio un 10% en ese periodo:

Arca NYSE gold miners index

Five things holding the miners down

1: Geared to the gold price. When the gold price is on the up, the miners do incredibly well. If gold goes up 15%, miners' profits may go up 50% – perhaps more... production costs can be quickly dwarfed by a rise in the gold price, and so increased revenues from the high gold price feed straight through to the bottom line.

Problem is, the converse is also true. If the gold price falls, the miners may fall harder. And seeing as many in the market see the gold price falling from here, they sell off the miners in anticipation.

2: Mining costs aren't fixed. Gold production costs have escalated quite significantly – inflation in energy prices and other commodities have been a thorn in the side of the producers. On top of that, it's becoming increasingly difficult to find decent grades to mine. The 'low-hanging fruit' has been picked – it's now very hard work to refine each ounce of the precious yellow metal. Many gold miners would hate gold to slip below $1,500... and we're pretty close to that figure right now!

3: Central banks want gold – not miners. One of the reasons gold has held up relatively well is because there's large demand coming out of the emerging market central banks. The likes of China and Russia are filling their boots – other smaller nations are dipping in too. Wisely these guys want to diversify foreign reserves. And gold is the ultimate reserve currency. Not the gold miners!

4: Nationalisation fears. There's an irony at the heart of gold investing. Gold is often bought as an insurance policy to guard against turmoil and panic in the markets. And during periods of turmoil, governments can do strange things. With so much trouble at the heart of the Western financial system, many fear a blow up. If gold is in some way the solution to this fiscal mess, then many fear that miners will suffer windfall taxes, or even forced nationalisation. Many are starting to wonder whether it isn't safer to tuck away some gold coins than hold shares.

5: Sentiment. Many investors are just plain fed up with how badly run many of these miners seem to be. A while back, many stockholders found that management had sold future gold production at what were increasingly looking like very low prices. As the gold price escalated, many stockholders didn't benefit.

Today some miners have found other ways of messing things up. A fundamental lack of control on the cost side of things, and a poor pipeline of new resources seem to be the main (gold) bugbears.

So management is the biggest problem in the industry. Encouraged by a rising gold price, lots of miners have mined for more costly, inaccessible gold. In effect they've made big bets on the gold price.
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Tavistock
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Re: La mineras y el oro

Mensajepor Tavistock » 26 Mar 2013 00:09

The recent pullback in gold bullion has certainly hurt gold mining stocks. While one can develop a sound investment strategy, if the price of the stock continues moving downward, it makes it extremely difficult to step in and buy.
Gold mining stocks have seen a serious sell-off over the last few months. So what about gold mining stocks as a long-term investment strategy?
To begin with, looking at the commodity from an investment strategy point of view, gold has pulled back and has bounced off a key support level. Obviously, whatever direction the price of gold moves, the majority of gold mining stocks will move in tandem.
No one can predict the price of a commodity for certain. However, we do know that there remains strong demand for physical gold and that central banks around the world continue to have easy monetary policies.
While that is a sound investment strategy, it does not guarantee that gold will see an increase. The market could continue declining, as more sellers of paper gold emerge.
Assuming that gold prices will increase, gold mining stocks are beginning to look attractive, because they’ve declined to such a level that many are trading at a discount to book value. This means that if the company were to be bought and sold in pieces, the sum of the parts is worth more than the current stock price.
This type of investment strategy, looking for value, is one approach that an investor can take when trying to determine which gold mining stocks might be suitable for their portfolio. Momentum is not bullish for gold mining stocks at the moment, as we would need to see significant buying pressure and an increase in prices. However, for the long-term investor, looking for oversold and undervalued gold mining stocks might be an investment strategy worth investigating.

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
The stock chart above is an index of gold mining stocks spanning one year. Following the breakdown of gold mining stocks in late January, prices have recently rebounded on larger-than-average volume.
Currently, gold mining stocks are continuing to see substantial buying pressure, which is pushing the index up against its downward resistance level. We need to see a sustained move through this level before additional buyers will step in.
Have gold mining stocks hit a bottom? There is no easy answer; if gold moves upward, then yes, gold mining stocks will follow. However, if investors continue selling their paper gold holdings, gold mining stocks will fall through their recent lows.
Having said that, there are many gold mining stocks trading at extremely attractive valuations. If you believe in the long-term bullish story for gold as an investment strategy, I would suggest looking to gold mining stocks that are trading at very attractive valuations.
There are also different types of gold mining stocks, depending on one’s goal and investment strategy. Obviously, gold mining stocks that are purely in the exploratory or junior phase are not as correlated with the price of gold as they are to the success or failure of their exploration work. Larger gold mining stocks are extremely correlated with gold; but they are also correlated with potential issues regarding political risks, labor issues, and rising costs.
Having said that, at some point there is value in gold mining stocks. However, being a value investor can be a difficult investment strategy. This is because a value stock can remain a value stock for a very long period of time. There is nothing to force a value stock to increase in price. This is why I would advocate having a stop-loss limit in place, in case gold mining stocks resume their downward trajectory. It is always easier to take a small loss and re-enter a position at a later point.

Tavistock
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Re: La mineras y el oro

Mensajepor Tavistock » 26 Mar 2013 00:22

Mineras en mínimo de 52 semanas:
Petropavlovsk PLC
Kazakhmys PLC
African Barrick Gold PLC

otra interesante es:
Highland Gold mining PLC (compañía de Abramovic)

No me imagino ese "cambio de paradigma" donde las mineras no hacen falta. Mi opinión es que hay valor en las mineras, pero eso no quiere decir que sea fácil elegir!

Tavistock
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Re: La mineras y el oro

Mensajepor Tavistock » 26 Mar 2013 00:31

African Barrick Gold

Divi 5.64% yield Price to book 0.47. EPS 37.8 cents estimated (some say 40 cents).

PE 8.38

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Dalamar
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Re: La mineras y el oro

Mensajepor Dalamar » 26 Mar 2013 06:15

Yo no soy muy fan de las mineras, hay que entender muy bien su negocio, el problema es que sus costes de extraccion suben exponencialmente y que cada vez encuentran menos oro, por lo tanto o el oro sube mucho o las mineras dejan de ser rentables, que es el caso! O yo no estoy muy convencido de que el oro vaya a subir mucho, el oro de joyeria ha perdido demanda, ya que los precios son muy altos y la gente simplenente prefiere regalar otras cosas, al final es una transicion en los gustos del consumidor, yo veo ahora anillos de boda de paladio por ejemplo! Sin embargo hay mucho oro de inversion, ETFs etc.. y ese puede salir en estampida en cualquier momento y producir mayores descensos.

Simplemente veo demasiadas incognitas, los insiders compran mineras?
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Dalamar
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Re: La mineras y el oro

Mensajepor Dalamar » 29 Oct 2013 17:55

El ratio oro/mineras realmente está en mínimos:
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Dalamar
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Re: La mineras y el oro

Mensajepor Dalamar » 30 Oct 2013 17:08

Una divergencia clasica:

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1383145676.661701.jpg
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Re: La mineras y el oro

Mensajepor Dalamar » 06 Nov 2013 18:36

As bullion went from a rally to bear market over the past five years, leaving most gold funds with losses, Tocqueville Asset Management LP’s John Hathaway made money by picking promising mining stocks early.

Hathaway’s $1.4 billion Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) gained 0.7 percent in the past five years when adjusted for price swings, the best among 15 U.S.-based mutual funds that invest in precious metals and mining companies, according to the BLOOMBERG RISKLESS RETURN RANKING. The fund produced the highest absolute returns in the group with the second-lowest volatility and was one of just four funds to make money over the period, according to the data.
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Vigilantexx
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Re: La mineras y el oro

Mensajepor Vigilantexx » 11 Nov 2013 10:29

Yo tb entre en GDX...y ayer en Uranio!

Más contrarían no se puede ser

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Dalamar
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Re: La mineras y el oro

Mensajepor Dalamar » 11 Nov 2013 11:03

Yo quiero comprar hoy unas mineras Juniors y tengo que abrir un nuevo hilo con el tema del Uranio que es interesante.
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