El Peso Filipino

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El peso Filipino

Mensajepor Dalamar » 05 Nov 2012 10:36

The peso could strengthen to the 30-level against the dollar next year as investors continue to flood emerging markets regardless of the outcome of the US elections on Tuesday, an investment bank said.

In its latest research note, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA) said it expects the peso to average 41 to a dollar by the first quarter of 2013, before appreciating further to 39.80 for the rest of the year.

BofA’s forecasts are stronger than the government’s official assumption of 42-45 next year. The peso closed at 41.18 on Wednesday, the last trading day before the holidays.

A strong peso, while making imports cheaper, also makes export products expensive abroad, possibly denting demand. It also trims the value of remittances from overseas Filipinos.

“In our view, there is still further upside to EMFX (emerging market foreign exchange) in the near term. PMI data has been decent for September following the US Fed meeting, and we think investors will continue to push currencies higher as they await further confirmation of improved activity,” BofA explained.

The US, considered as investors’ safe haven, has been struggling to boost growth four years after the global financial crisis. Its central bank, the US Federal Reserve, said on September it is embarking on a third round of bond-buying program meant to flood the economy with cash to boost demand and growth.

The Fed announcement came after US manufacturing activity hit 51.5 in the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in September, similar from August. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

A strong US manufacturing performance signals economic recovery for the world superpower and thus, should drive investors to invest in risky assets such as the peso.

The outcome of the US elections will also only have “neutral” effect to emerging market currencies like the peso, which BofA expects to trade at an average of 42 this quarter.

“Market pricing of an Obama victory is mild USD (US dollar) negative. (Mitt) Romney victory, USD positive,” it said.
This indicated that the market may view a re-election of US President Barack Obama positively, giving them confidence to acquire risky assets and thus lowering the dollar’s value. In contrast, a Romney victory is predicted to drive investors to safe havens like the dollar, contributing to its appreciation.

“Both a Romney win and Great Rotation pose upside risks to US rates. Historical evidence suggests this would be bearish for EM rates but neutral for EMFX overall – though with significant differentiation within it,” BofA said.

In an effort to tame the peso’s appreciation, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) slashed its policy rates by another 25 basis points last Oct. 25, bringing them to new record-lows of 3.5 percent and 5.5 percent for overnight borrowing and lending, respectively.
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El Peso Filipino

Mensajepor Dalamar » 14 Feb 2013 09:41

The country’s foreign exchange reserves hit another record high, partly fueled by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ efforts to temper the peso’s appreciation by buying dollars.

The gross international reserves (GIR)—which determine a country’s ability to purchase imports, settle debts to foreigners, and engage in other transactions with the rest of the world—reached $85.76 billion as of the end of January, up by 11 percent from the $77.36 billion of the same period last year.

The BSP considered the latest GIR amount to be quite comfortable—enough to cover 12.3 months’ worth of import requirements.

Also, it was 5.8 times the amount of the outstanding debt denominated in foreign currencies of private and government entities maturing within the short term, the central bank said.

As a result, the international financial community’s confidence in the Philippines improved further because of the country’s clear ability to service its liabilities, BSP officials claimed.

“Inflows from the BSP’s foreign exchange operations and income from investments abroad, as well as foreign currency deposits by the national government, contributed to the appreciable increase in the end-January 2013 GIR level,” the BSP on Thursday said in a statement.

The central bank, through its foreign exchange operations, buys and sells currencies to stabilize the exchange rate, causing the country’s foreign exchange reserves to grow.

The BSP maintains a policy of letting the market determine the peso exchange rate. But it stressed that it would immediately intervene if the peso were to fluctuate sharply.

The sudden rise or fall of the local currency will adversely affect the economy, it explained. For instance, the appreciation of the peso will make Philippine-made goods more expensive, effectively reducing the competitiveness of the export sector.

In January, the peso averaged at 40.73 against the US dollar, stronger than the 41:$1 rate reported the previous month. Market players said that, had it not been for the BSP’s effort to stabilize the exchange rate, the peso would have risen more sharply.

Also, proceeds from the BSP’s investments provided a boost to the GIR. The central bank invests mainly in US Treasuries. The government’s foreign borrowings deposited in the BSP also beefed up the GIR for January.

The central bank’s gold holdings accounted for $10.3 billion of the country’s total reserves.
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Re: El peso Filipino

Mensajepor Dalamar » 21 Feb 2013 08:39

Segun pictet:

Divisas prometedoras y monedas a evitar

Además, algunos países emergentes están subiendo los tipos de interés mientras otros hacen justo lo contrario. “En Brasil prevemos que las presiones inflacionistas aumenten en 2013 y hemos incrementado las inversiones en bonos indexados a la inflación, lo que puede aplicarse en otros mercados. A ello se añade que seguimos fuertemente invertidos en monedas de países cuyas perspectivas de crecimiento parecen especialmente prometedoras: rublo ruso, peso filipino y nairu nigeriano”. Sin embargo, el equipo tiene posiciones bajistas en lira turca –que encuentran sobrevalorada- y rand sudafricano -la segunda moneda más volátil del mundo tras el yen japonés-.
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Re: El Peso Filipino

Mensajepor Dalamar » 22 Mar 2013 06:19

Philippines is preparing more measures to discourage speculative foreign investments

Comments by Assistant Governor Amador suggest that officials are nearly ready to implement a ban on foreign fund deposits in the central bank’s reverse repo facility, though it is still not clear whether they would choose to implement it. The deciding factor will probably be the speed of PHP appreciation. The measures would be very much in line with the interventionist style of the bank: gradual and focused on regulatory measures, such as limits for foreign investment in the Special Deposit Accounts and use of NDFs. We still think that the fundamentals are very favourable for further PHP appreciation, and that these measures will not be enough to alter the strengthening trend. However, like the THB, we expect them to be enough to slow down gains.
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Re: El Peso Filipino

Mensajepor Dalamar » 06 Abr 2013 05:49

Segun el indice Mc Donalds:

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1365220112.282387.jpg
ImageUploadedByTapatalk1365220123.533617.jpg
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Re: El Peso Filipino

Mensajepor Dalamar » 20 Abr 2013 06:10

Philippines will further relax FX trading limits. This means that the government will allow for more investments abroad. It will also double the limit for over-the-counter FX transactions. The idea is to prevent further appreciation of the peso, but we doubt it will have a noticeable impact in the short term. Still, the move helps consolidate the idea that Philippines is becoming far more active in the currency markets. We think the continuous cutting of the SDA rate, for example, helped send the signal that stemmed the decline in USD/PHP since March. We are neutral on PHP in the short term, but doubt the currency will participate in any broad EM currency rally – should one come along.
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Re: El peso Filipino

Mensajepor Dalamar » 24 Jun 2013 08:17

After holding its foot between P40-P42 = $1, the Philippine peso has been falling recently because of the expectations that the US Federal Reserve will soon scale back its stimulus program. If ever the peso turns from bad to worse, Peiris said the central bank has the flexibility to respond to capital outflows. “But there would seem no need for capital flow measures at the current juncture given the comfortable external position and resilient banking system,” he said. The peso is also strongly supported by $82-billion in reserves to “smoothen excessive volatility.”

IMF mentioned that the financial market sell-offs are expected to have a “moderate impact” on the Philippines, which does not need to resort to controls to prevent capital from leaving.
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Re: El peso Filipino

Mensajepor Dalamar » 10 Nov 2013 14:25

Eur/Php .... Los fundamentales de Filipinas son muy fuertes, pero amenaza el tappering, hacia donde el proximo movimiento?

El tappering ya se sabe y deberia de estar descontado, o no?
Adjuntos
USDPHP.JPG
USD/PHP
USDPHP.JPG (5.43 KiB) Visto 625 veces
EUR_PHP.JPG
EUR/PHP
EUR_PHP.JPG (7.3 KiB) Visto 630 veces
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Re: El Peso Filipino

Mensajepor Dalamar » 06 Mar 2015 16:39

El peso Filipino esta muy fuerte con respecto al euro.
Adjuntos
USDPHP.png
USDPHP
USDPHP.png (5.08 KiB) Visto 390 veces
EURPHP_2.png
EURPHP
EURPHP_2.png (5.49 KiB) Visto 390 veces
EURPHP.png
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Re: El Peso Filipino

Mensajepor Dalamar » 22 Ago 2015 13:21

El euro y el dolar con respecto al peso filipino.
uploadfromtaptalk1440242464112.jpg
uploadfromtaptalk1440242458657.jpg
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