El franco Suizo

Reglas del Foro
Por favor procura que tus comentarios estén relacionados con la entrada y no pongas enlaces no relevantes. Intenta también respetar a los demás, los comentarios promocionales, ofensivos o ilegales serán editados y borrados. La información o los datos presentes en la web se suministran únicamente a título informativo. Por tanto, corresponde a cada usuario verificar esta información antes de tomar ninguna decisión basada en ella. El usuario es el único responsable del uso que haga de los datos y la información provenientes de la web.
Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8965
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

El franco Suizo

Mensajepor Dalamar » 19 Ene 2013 08:47

Germany is loaded with bonds from various countries so it's stored wealth depends on weaker economies. Switzerland is printing to stay competitive, but the result is boatloads of CHF stored for others along with a mountain of Euros purchased, thus helping to prop up the Euro as Germany is doing.

If Switzerland ever tries to buy back the CHF, the exchange rate will skyrocket, choking the economy. But if they don't buy them back, they will eventually be spent for goods , causing severe inflation. Similarly, selling all those Euros will cause the Euro to sink, inflating prices in Europe.
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8965
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: El franco Suizo

Mensajepor Dalamar » 19 Ene 2013 08:48

The profit in foreign currency positions fell from 10.3 billion in the first three quarters to 4.7 billion in the whole year implying a loss of 5.6 billion in the last quarter. The loss was 4 billion higher than our estimate (possible reason: the IMF FX reserves data used for our estimate will be revised downwards). Especially the yen and gold depreciated in the last quarter. The latest monetary data showed that the SNB reduced sight deposits and liabilities by only 4 billion francs in Q4/2012 and they even increased by one billion francs last week.
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8965
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: El franco Suizo

Mensajepor Dalamar » 19 Ene 2013 08:49

The floor should remain in place and unchanged

Following the recent fall of the Swiss franc against the euro, there were paradoxical comments on the opportunity on both moving the floor lower (say to 1.25 for example) or on abandoning it altogether (or moving it higher). We believe both options are very unlikely, at least in the coming months. Moving the floor lower would be a bad idea in our view. As we have seen, the extent of the franc’s overvaluation is quite debatable and the lower the floor, the quicker a monetary policy dilemma may emerge. Moreover, in the event renewed upward pressures on the franc occur once again, a lower floor may prove more costly in terms of FX interventions. In any case, the SNB was relatively clear recently in saying that it has no plan to move the floor.

On the other hand, now that the euro is far higher than 1.20 francs, it could look tempting for the SNB to take the opportunity to simply abandon the floor. However, this would be quite a risky bet. As mentioned above, a new bout of the euro crisis may break out at some stage or another over the coming months, propelling the franc sharply higher once again. Then what would the SNB do? Reset a floor? In short, by abandoning the floor already now, the SNB would be playing dangerously with its credibility. In our view, we continue to believe the floor might be abandoned (or possibly raised substantially) at some stage, but most likely not before next year.
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8965
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: El franco Suizo

Mensajepor Dalamar » 19 Ene 2013 08:51

On the other hand, now that the euro is far higher than 1.20 francs, it could look tempting for the SNB to take the opportunity to simply abandon the floor. However, this would be quite a risky bet. As mentioned below, a new bout of the euro crisis may break out at some stage or another over the coming months, propelling the franc sharply higher once again. Then what would the SNB do? Reset a floor? In short, by abandoning the floor already now, the SNB would be playing dangerously with its credibility. In our view, we continue to believe the floor might be abandoned (or possibly raised substantially) at some stage, but most likely not before next year.

The franc has weakened sharply against the euro this year
Over the past week or so, the Swiss franc suddenly weakened significantly against the single currency, reaching almost CHF1.255 per euro, its lowest level since May 2011. Behind the scene, this sudden decline was linked to a further substantial reduction in the systemic risk associated with the euro crisis and the widespread practice of charging penalty rates on CHF deposits. However, the short-term trigger of the CHF fall was clearly last week’s surprisingly “not-so-dovish” ECB press conference.

Swiss franc weakness unlikely to last in our view
Nevertheless, we do not believe the franc’s recent depreciation against the euro will prove a lasting phenomenon. It is far from sure that risk aversion will continue to fall over the coming few months. Peripheral European countries are in a deep recession and even German economic activity contracted in Q4 2012. Austerity programmes are a powerful drag on growth and public budget rebalancing is far from being achieved. At some stage over the coming few months, a new bout of the euro crisis may burst. And, even if it does not, the prolonged weakness of the euro area economy may well lead to more accommodative measures by the ECB. Moreover, a temporary surge in risk aversion is also possible around the looming US political challenges (the debt ceiling, the ‘Sequester’ and the continuing budget resolution).
ImageUploadedByTapatalk1358578264.947315.jpg

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1358578273.267612.jpg
ImageUploadedByTapatalk1358578280.790935.jpg
ImageUploadedByTapatalk1358578287.063682.jpg
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8965
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: El franco Suizo

Mensajepor Dalamar » 20 Ene 2013 09:37

The history of the “May to September” effect on the swiss franc

And this is the way history repeats during the weak US months May to September on the other side of the Atlantic:

Between March and June 2009, the SNB managed to maintain the 1.50 EUR/CHF “line in sand” only thanks to intensive FX intervention.
Same picture in May 2010: Strong demand for the Swiss Franc, even multiplied by the first Greek crisis. The EUR/CHF fell to 1.40. When the SNB had abandoned the FX interventions the Swiss Franc even reached parity with the dollar and EUR/CHF 1.30 in September 2010.
After the typical US rebound in Q4/2010, the Swissie soared again. Like regularly it reached a first peak in the May 2011 up to a EUR/CHF 1.22 and a USD/CHF of 0.83. Then the increase of the Swiss currency even accelerated to reach EUR/CHF of 1.0076 and USD/CHF 0.71 in August 2011.

The SNB knows this “May to September” effect and timed the epic introduction the EUR/CHF floor of 1.20 slightly before the yearly rebound of the US economy and not in the months of July and August 2011, when the franc was hovering between 1.00 and 1.15.

Similarly, the central bank used the positive US months between October 2011 and April 2012 to cut its heavily overloaded balance sheet by around 17% of the currency reserves and sold


The SNB must sell some reserves until May 2013


The big money supply will move Swiss real estate prices upwards and cause Swiss inflation to rise. More about Swiss inflation here.
Sterilization was easily possible: During the sterilizations between 2010 and 2011, investors were keen on the close to zero yielding SNB bills, as Dewet Moser of the SNB proudly explained. But he did not mention that these measures were accompanied with big SNB losses and a depreciation of the EUR/CHF from 1.40 to 1.20.
Given that the Swiss have structural advantages like a high level of human capital especially after the Swiss/EU bilateral agreements, high availability of capital and low taxes, the franc must appreciate with the time. This is reflected in the interest rate parity. We judge that in the very long-term the franc must rise by at least 1% per year against the euro zone with its higher inflation rates. We call this 1% the “required yield”.
We computed a yield of 0.49% for SNB investments for Q3/2012 based on coupon and dividend payments. As we all know, government bond yields have arrived at the “zero border”. This 0.49% is far under the required yield of 1% and pushes central banks, similarly as insurances, into risky investments,. The SNB increased equity holdings to 12% despite the slowing global growth. Higher reserves can push the obtained yield even further down, because higher yielding older investments (e.g. U.S. treasuries bought in 2007) are replaced with lower yielding ones (e.g. treasuries bought in 2012).

Visto en: http://snbchf.com/2013/01/sell-in-may-c ... n-october/
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!

Avatar de Usuario
Dalamar
Site Admin
Mensajes: 8965
Registrado: 09 May 2012 01:38

Re: El franco Suizo

Mensajepor Dalamar » 23 Feb 2013 16:16

Central Bank data shows that the SNB remains the only central bank that strongly participated in currency wars with Foreign Exchange interventions, while such "physical" interventions of the Bank of Japan remain very limited. The recent Japanese interventions were purely verbal, while hedge funds and FX traders acted on behalf of the Japanese.
¿Te ha gustado este hilo? Compartelo en las redes sociales para que se sume mas gente a la conversacion!


Volver a “Divisas/Forex”

cron

Ingresar