El Yen

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El Yen

Mensajepor Dalamar » 06 Ene 2013 09:18

Comentario de Mark To Market:

Yen: The JPY88.80 area is the next immediate dollar target. As the JPY90 area is approached, it may be increasingly important to watch how the yen performs in Asia and whether Japanese corporates try to lock in profits or hedges. Buying dollars on modest dips is likely to be the preferred strategy of the trend following and momentum traders. We anticipate pullbacks to be limited to the JPY86.80-JPY87.30 range.
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Re: El Yen

Mensajepor Dalamar » 06 Ene 2013 09:20

Parece ser que se han empeñado en debilitar el Yen, y podria ser interesante el trade.
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Re: El Yen

Mensajepor Dalamar » 07 Ene 2013 05:19

The LDP program has three components: monetary policy, fiscal policy and nationalism. It is monetary policy that most recently has captured the imagination of observers and investors alike. Essentially, the Abe government wants the Bank of Japan to be more aggressive. The BOJ adopted a 1% inflation target in early 2012, which is missed in 2012, as deflation still is evident (as it has been for around 15 years). The government wants a 2% target. The BOJ is set to debate increasing its inflation target at the next board meeting (Jan 21-22)

The Abe government also wants the BOJ to adopt an open-ended commitment to expanded its balance sheet, as the Federal Reserve has done and the ECB says it will do under its Outright Markets Transaction scheme (which has yet to be initiated). The BOJ expanded its assets purchase program five times in 2012. It is not immediately clear how this would be substantively different from an open-ended commitment.

The Abe government had threatened to alter the BOJ's charter to force it to comply. However, it seems to be backing down from this, suggesting that it may not seek to legislate, if the BOJ cooperates. We have previously recognized that with the BOJ governor and two deputies' terms ending in a couple of months, the LDP can achieve its objectives with personnel decisions what it threatens.

Some observers have sought to defend the independence of the BOJ. However, we note that the BOJ's independence may not have been what many think. Under existing law, the Ministry of Finance can, for example, send representatives to BOJ meetings. Can you imagine the US Treasury Secretary dropping in on a FOMC meeting or the German Finance Minister popping in on Bundesbank meeting, back when the Bundesbank had keys to the printing press ?

On the other hand, the independence of central banks, more broadly, begs questions about independence from whom (the same political forces that we trust with grave responsibilities, including the national defense) and to what end.

Complimenting what the aggressive expansion of monetary policy, the LDP-led government will pursue an aggressive fiscal policy. A supplemental budget is being cobbled together, with reports suggesting a JPY10 trillion package. When Finance Mnister Aso was Prime Minister (2008-2009) he also offered extensive fiscal support, as the global credit cycle ended dramatically.

The FY2012-13 budget is also being drafted. The near-term fiscal stimulus is not being tied to longer term fiscal consolidation. Abe feels no compulsion to respect the DPJ's self-imposed JPY44 trillion annual debt cap. The Abe government has also indicated that it is considering investing directly in some companies to help them cope with the economic situation.

Compliments aggressively accommodative monetary and fiscal policy, Abenomics wanted the yen to fall. Without taking a single action, Abe and the LDP appear to have been more successful than BOJ intervention in weakening the yen. Finance Minister Aso has suggested a JPY90 target, which is within striking distance. Some Japanese producers have weighed in, preferring a JPY100 target.

Moreover, as the yen has weakened the Nikkei has rallied. Foreign investors, who had been large buyers of Japanese government bonds earlier in 2012, finished the year as strong buyers of Japanese shares. In a weak yen environment, Japanese stocks outperform bonds. Japanese 10-year bond yields have crept higher recently, but have actually outperformed US Treasuries, German bunds and UK gilts in recent weeks.

The third-prong of the LDP's program is nationalism. It has taken several forms. The DPJ eschewed controversial visits to the war shrine. Top LDP officials do not. The LDP has suggested interest in re-writing a 1995 apology about its aggressiveness and colonization policies in East Asia.

It has not shown any conciliatory tone in the dispute over the Senkaku-Diaoyu islands with China. This simmering dispute with China seems to be doing what North Korea failed to do by launching missiles in Japan's direction and what US urging was unable to accomplish, namely an emerging consensus favoring a re-militarization of Japan. Perhaps most telling about the regional tension with a more assertive China, the Philippines recent endorsed the re-arming of Japan.

The rise of nationalism does not bode well for Japan's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an attempt to build a free-trade area covering both sides of the Pacific. Although it was somewhat controversial for the DPJ, it had seemed to be moving in a supportive direction. The LDP (and the interests it represents) seem more hostile.

Thus far, there seems to be little push back against thrust of the LDP's monetary and fiscal policies. The purposeful depreciation of the yen has not spurred protests by other countries, but we suspect that a continued sharp decline will antagonize Japan's competitors, including South Korea and China. Although most of Japanese cars sold in the US are made in the US, US auto companies may also express their frustration
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Re: El Yen

Mensajepor Dalamar » 15 Ene 2013 06:32

Crecimiento de Japon:
Adjuntos
pib-crecimiento-de-japon-1971-2012.jpg
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Re: El Yen

Mensajepor Dalamar » 20 Ene 2013 06:24

Evolucion Dolar/Yen:
Adjuntos
relacion-yen-dolar-1971-2013.jpg
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Re: El Yen

Mensajepor Dalamar » 28 Ene 2013 15:30

The truth is Japan's stated goal of reaching inflation of 2% doesn't look all that ambitious until you realize that the Bank of Japan's forecast for inflation to March 2013 is only 0.4%, and its forecast to March 2014 is only 0.9%.

That's why the Bank of Japan has committed to a massive bond purchase scheme of about $1.2 trillion by January 2014, plus another $150 billion per month after that.

Believe it or not, that's nearly twice the size of Ben Bernanke's stimulus program for the United States, and Japan's economy is only one-third the size of the U.S. economy.

Add in a spending "stimulus" program of more than $100 billion to Japan's already ludicrous levels of debt, and it becomes obvious that trashing the yen is a likely result of these policies.

Like the Charge of the Light Brigade immortalized by Tennyson, these policies will look glorious initially but will eventually produce disaster, as they come up against the Russian guns at the end of the Valley of Death.

Admittedly, the Tokyo market is already up more than 10% since the election last month, and has further to go. But I wouldn't make any long-term bets on that market, or the yen.
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Re: El Yen

Mensajepor Dalamar » 20 Feb 2013 09:34

The Japanese Yen Is Still 80% Over-Valued

In the 40 years or so since the end of the Bretton Woods system, we have seen competitive devaluations occur again and again. However as SocGen notes, it appears Japan just keeps coming out on the losing side. Based on Real Effective Exchange Rates (REER), Japan's currency is 80% stronger now than in 1971 while the US (and South Korea interestingly) are about 40% weaker.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-1 ... ver-valued
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Re: El Yen

Mensajepor Dalamar » 02 Mar 2013 11:09

Japan reported inflation fell for the 8th time in 9 months in January. Headline CPI has fallen 0.3% year-over-year. It had finished 2012 0.1% below year ago levels.

Tokyo's CPI for February was also reported. It tends to catch national trends. Tokyo CPI fell sharply in February. The -0.9% year-of-year pace was nearly twice January's 0.5% decline and matches the most acute deflation since August 2010.

The decline of the yen, however, is not spurring Japanese investors to buy foreign assets. On the contrary, they have turned significant sellers of foreign assets. Over the past four weeks they have sold an average of JPY851.3 bln of foreign assets. This is the highest 4-week average net sales since 2002.
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Re: El Yen

Mensajepor Dalamar » 05 Mar 2013 06:26

Javier Alfayate nos traduce de Tom McClellan: (http://accionesdebolsa.com/puede-el-cam ... olsas.html)

¿Puede el cambio Euroyen anticiparse a las bolsas?

“Desde su creación en 1999, los movimientos del euro frente al dólar ha mostrado una correlación positiva y cada vez más pareja a los movimientos del mercado de valores de EE.UU.

Recientemente, hemos visto un pico en el euroyen el 5 de febrero, y ahora se ha roto la línea de 3 meses lo cual es una indicación bastante clara de cambio de tendencia. Sin embargo, el SP500 sólo recientemente comenzó a tener alguna que otra turbulencia en las alturas en las que está.

Esa divergencia en el euroyen y en el SP500 era y es un gran signo de los problemas que recién ahora está llegando a la bolsa de valores. Esta divergencia del euroyen no ofrece ninguna esperanza de que los esfuerzos de recuperación por parte del SP500 sea un éxito.
Adjuntos
euroyen.gif
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Re: El Yen

Mensajepor Dalamar » 05 Abr 2013 17:24

El Banco de Japón, presidido por primera vez por Haruhiko Kuroda, anunció este jueves una agresiva batería de medidas de estímulo con el objetivo de doblar la base monetaria del país, así como incrementar significativamente las cantidades de deuda pública y otros instrumentos financieros adquiridos por la institución con el fin superar la deflación y alcanzar una meta de inflación del 2% en un plazo de dos años.

A este respecto, Soros advirtió de que lo que está haciendo Japón es, de hecho, "bastante peligroso", porque lo están haciendo después de 25 años de simplemente acumular déficit sin que la economía mejore.

"Una vez que empiece puede que no sean capaces de pararlo. Si el yen comienza a caer, como ha hecho, y la gente considera que es probable que esto continúe, quizás quieran sacar fuera su dinero, y entonces puede que la caída se convierta en una avalancha", apuntó.


Segun Soros
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