El colapso del Dolar

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Dalamar
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El colapso del Dolar

Mensajepor Dalamar » 11 Oct 2012 09:12

¿Estamos ante el ocaso del liderazgo mundial del ‘billete verde’? Para el profesor Barry Eichengreen, autor del libro ‘Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar’, la respuesta es no. Al menos, por ahora.

Según explica en un artículo titulado ‘¿Está llegando a su fin la era del dominio del dólar?’ publicado en el DWS Globlal Financial Institute, el centro especializado en estudios económicos de interés para gestores de fondos creado por DWS Investments, “el papel internacional del dólar se ha reforzado”. Por un lado, el posicionamiento del euro como rival del dólar se ha retrasado por la crisis de deuda de la eurozona.

Por el otro, la aparición del renmimbi se ha acelerado y el país asiático ha avanzado más rápidamente de lo previsto en la internacionalización de su divisa, gracias, fundamentalmente, a la fortaleza mostrada por su economía durante la última década.
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Re: El colapso del Dolar

Mensajepor Dalamar » 15 Oct 2012 07:06

De Dr. A. Gary Shilling:

The U.S. dollar has been strong of late, resulting from its safe haven status in the global financial crisis. Furthermore, the U.S. economy, while slipping, is in better shape than almost any other—the best of the bunch. I believe the global recession will persist and the greenback will continue to serve this role. Furthermore, the greenback is likely to remain strong against other currencies for years as it continues to be the primary international trading and reserve currency. The dollar should continue to meet at least five of my six criteria for being the dominant global currency:

1. After deleveraging is complete, the U.S. will return to rapid growth in the economy and in GDP per capita, driven by robust productivity.

2. The American economy is large and likely to remain the world's biggest for decades.

3. The U.S. has deep and broad financial markets.

4. America has free and open financial markets and economy.

5. No likely substitute for the dollar on the global stage is in sight.


6. Credibility in the buck has been in decline since 1985, but may revive if long-run government deficits are addressed and consumer retrenchment and other factors shrink the foreign trade and current account deficits.
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Re: El colapso del Dolar

Mensajepor Vigilantexx » 16 Oct 2012 14:23

dejaran los chinos algun dia la paridad con el dolar?

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Re: El colapso del Dolar

Mensajepor Dalamar » 16 Oct 2012 16:50

Te refieres a Hong Kong? El Yuan va subiendo poco a poco de forma controlada, no lleva una paridad constante.
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Re: El colapso del Dolar

Mensajepor Vigilantexx » 16 Oct 2012 17:22

A China, mas que la paridad me referia a la devaluacion forzada...igual algun dia son ellos la moneda de referencia

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El colapso del Dolar

Mensajepor Dalamar » 16 Oct 2012 18:08

No dudaria que cuando sean una democracia pudiera darse el caso, a dia de hoy no me fiaria yo mucho, tienen una actitud bastante belica y tienen muchos vecinos y no tan vecinos desconfiando, nunca se sabe cono pueden acabar y ya sabemos que la historia se repite, el crash del 29 ya lo hemos vuelto a vivir...
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El colapso del Dolar

Mensajepor Dalamar » 21 Oct 2012 14:50

Peter Schiff opina:

The closest thing I know to being a sure thing is that the U.S. dollar is going to depreciate. - in IndexUniverse
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Re: El colapso del Dolar

Mensajepor Dalamar » 11 Dic 2012 09:47

Bilateral trade agreements between China and several of its major trading partners:

• Russia – Vladamir Putin and Wen Jiabao announced an agreement to conduct bilateral trade in their own currencies in November 2010. This was followed up by the signing of a bilateral currency settlement agreement between their central banks in June 2011.

• Japan – China and Japan announced plans to promote direct exchange of their currencies in December 2011, negating the need to buy dollars. On 1 June 2012, China and Japan began to directly trade their currencies on the inter-bank foreign exchange markets in Shanghai and Tokyo for the first time.

• Germany – following talks in late-August 2012, China and Germany announced an accord to transact an increasing amount of their trade in
Euros and the Yuan. This was from a Reuters report on 30 August 2012: “Germany and China plan to conduct an increasing amount of their trade in euros and yuan, the two nations said in a joint statement after talks between Chancellor Angela Merkel and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing on Thursday. ‘Both sides intend to support financial institutions and companies of both countries in the use of the renminbi and euro in bilateral trade and investments,’ said the text of the statement. It also said that both parties welcomed investments in China's interbank bond market by German banks and supported the settlement of business in the yuan by German and Chinese banks and the issuance of yuan denominated financial products in Germany.

• Australia – in late- March 2012, China and Australia agreed a currency swap with Australia. The Reserve Bank of Australia commented: “The main purposes of the swap agreement are to support trade and investment between Australia and China, particularly in local-currency terms, and to strengthen bilateral financial co-operation…(there were) increasing opportunities available to settle trade between the two countries in Chinese renminbi and to make renminbi-denominated investments.”
Australia is obviously a major exporter of key commodities, like iron ore, coal and agricultural products.

• Brazil – which is the other major supplier of iron ore. Besides the BRICS agreement (above), China and Brazil agreed a currency swap last month;

• Chile – with iron ore sorted out, what about copper? Last month, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Chilean President Sebastian Pinera agreed to upgrade their bilateral ties to a strategic partnership and double trade in three years. The agreement proposed the creation of currency swaps, reportedly to expand settlement in Yuan;

• Taiwan – a currency clearing agreement was signed between China and Taiwan In September 2012. Trade will be settled in local currencies at the Bank of Taiwan in Shanghai.

• UAE – an agreement was reached to settle oil trades between China and the UAE in Yuan.
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Re: El colapso del Dolar

Mensajepor Dalamar » 11 Dic 2012 12:57

“The scope of using the SDR should be broadened, so as to enable it to fully satisfy the member countries’ demand for a reserve currency. Set up a settlement system between the SDR and other currencies. Therefore, the SDR, which is now only used between governments and international institutions, could become a widely accepted means of payment in international trade and financial transactions. Actively promote the use of the SDR in international trade, commodities pricing, investment and corporate book-keeping. This will help enhance the role of the SDR, and will effectively reduce the fluctuation of prices of assets denominated in national currencies and related risks.”

“The basket of currencies forming the basis for SDR valuation should be expanded to include currencies of all major economies, and the GDP may also be included as a weight.”

“The IMF should fully exercise its role and turn the Special Drawing Rights into a new international reserve currency.”
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Re: El colapso del Dolar

Mensajepor Dalamar » 18 Feb 2013 07:09

Aqui tenemos a Mr Timing que nos dice que el dolar subira:

It has been my standing belief that when the US dollar bottomed in 2011, and despite the historic quantitative measures undertaken by the Fed - the precious metals, and peripherally the commodity markets - were now large asset bubbles on the backside of the cycle. It is why I have referred to the US dollar low comparative as "QE Free Vs. QE", because I wanted to make the not so subtle point that regardless of the Fed's hand, the US dollar was still carving out a secular low - very much along the lines of its last.
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