Insiders

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Re: Insiders

Mensajepor Dalamar » 01 Dic 2013 07:13

Symantec Corp. (Nasdaq: SYMC) is one of the leading internet security providers in the world. Symantec makes a wide range of products that help individuals and businesses keep their computers and mobile devices safe from viruses and malware. The stock recently dropped sharply after the company fell short of analysts' quarterly earnings expectations, but CEO Stephen Bennett clearly disagrees with the market's opinion of the company's prospects. He got out his checkbook and added 1,000,000 shares of stock for a total cost of more than $2.2 million. He now owns 488,000 shares of Symantec stock and clearly has high expectations for the future of Symantec's stock price.

Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) shares fell about 18% from July 25 to Oct. 23, as analysts and investors have downgraded their expectations for the handbag and apparel maker. The company is trying to rebrand itself as more of a lifestyle company and recently introduced a new line of footwear products. It's also expanding its total retail space and plans to spend almost $300 million to increase its selling floor footprint. Sales and profits were flat last quarter, but company CEO Lew Frankfort thinks that better times lie ahead for the company. He recently spent more than $1 million to buy 21,000 shares in the open market.

Simonds First National Corp. (Nasdaq: SFNC) is a Midwestern bank with 96 branches in Arkansas, Missouri, and Kansas. The stock has been strong this year, but CEO George Makris sees additional upside ahead. Since 2010 the company has been buying assets and loans from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation with a loss-sharing arrangement wherein the FDIC is responsible for 80% of losses associated with the assets. Makris is a big believer of the strategy, as he has purchased stock on several occasions this year. The latest was in October, when he spent another $622,000 to buy 19,308 shares in the open market.
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Re: Insiders

Mensajepor Dalamar » 05 Dic 2013 20:01

On Monday, Eric M. DeMarco, the chief executive officer of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc. (Nasdaq: KTOS), purchased 31,273 shares of his company's stock at an average price of $6.40, spending about $200,150 to do so. Following the purchase, DeMarco directly owns 326,468 shares of Kratos stock with an approximate value of $2.1 million.
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Re: Insiders

Mensajepor Dalamar » 05 Dic 2013 20:03

In one paper, professors Carr Bettis, Don Vickrey and Donn W. Vickrey found that "outside" investors who mimicked the moves of insiders would have outperformed other stocks of the same size and risk by nearly 7% per year - even after factoring in transaction costs.

In the second study University of Houston Prof. R. Richardson Pettit and P.C. Venkatesh from the Office of the Comptroller of the U.S. Currency found that insiders tend to increase their net purchases up to 24 months before a stock generates an above-average return.
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Re: Insiders

Mensajepor Dalamar » 05 Dic 2013 22:11

Independent researcher Market Profile Theorem (MPT) showed that insider trading trends signal an up-and-coming shift in market sentiment. To spotlight those trends, MPT analysts use a device known as the "Brooks Ratio," which divides total insider sales of a company by total insider trades (purchases and sales) and then averages this ratio for 2,500 stocks. If the average Brooks Ratio is less than 40%, the market outlook is bullish. But a ratio that exceeds 60% is bearish.

University of Michigan Professor Nejat Seyhun, author of "Investment Intelligence from Insider Trading," came to the same conclusion that Tony and I reached: Stock prices rise more after insiders' net purchases than after net sales.
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Re: Insiders

Mensajepor Dalamar » 10 Dic 2013 06:16

What is a busted lock-in, and what does it mean for the US market?

When a company lists on the stock market for the first time (its initial public offering, or IPO), existing shareholders and directors often give an undertaking not to sell any shares for a fixed period – typically six months.

There are two reasons for this. Firstly, it helps investors who buy at the IPO to feel confident that the share price won’t be hit straightaway by a flood of early selling.

Secondly, it means that potential investors get a chance to scrutinise a company before insiders start selling. In other words, it creates a more level playing field, as the insiders’ information advantage is partially eroded. After all, if you think about it, selling a company isn’t too different to selling a used car – the previous owner generally knows a lot more about how well it really runs than the buyer does.

However, with some IPOs, insiders get permission to sell shares before this lock-in period is over. The insiders seek permission from the investment bank that sponsored the IPO. Permission will normally be granted if the company’s share price has performed strongly since the listing. Investment banks, needless to say, also often have a financial incentive to grant permission, as they may receive some commission on the trades.

According to the FT, research from Dealogic shows that IPO lock-ins have been busted at 26 US companies this year, with share sales worth $7.4bn. That’s the highest number of busted lock-ins since 2000 – when the figure hit 43.

That’s a worry. Insiders may be being overly cautious, but they arguably represent the best-informed money in the market. If they think this is as good as it gets, we should pay attention. And if you look at some of the IPOs that have hit the market, it’s not hard to see why.
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Re: Insiders

Mensajepor Dalamar » 20 Ene 2014 11:58

Al parecer los insiders estan vendiendo:
Adjuntos
insidersSelling.png
Insiders
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Re: Insiders

Mensajepor alcaudon71 » 27 Feb 2014 00:39

Uf, buen gráfico. Parece que están soltando lastre a marchas forzadas desde hace un mes...

Es decir, su opinión es que estamos ante el preámbulo de una corrección importante en los mercados (>20%).

Y mañana es la comparecencia de Yellen...

Saludos.

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Re: Insiders

Mensajepor Dalamar » 27 Feb 2014 02:01

Los insiders tienden a adelantarse
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Re: Insiders

Mensajepor Dalamar » 10 Mar 2014 16:38

Los insiders vendiendo...
ImageUploadedByTapatalk1394462132.411173.jpg
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Re: Insiders

Mensajepor Dalamar » 17 Mar 2014 06:27

According to the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research, this sell-to-buy ratio, when applied to transactions over the previous eight weeks, is higher than average but no higher today than it was one year ago — when the S&P 500 SPX -0.28%  was poised to produce an impressive double-digit gain.

And in late 2003, just as the 2002-07 bull market was gathering steam, the insiders’ sell-to-buy ratio rose to even higher levels than it is today.

But this measure is misleading, says Nejat Seyhun, a finance professor at the University of Michigan who has extensively studied insider behavior. That is because it uses a government definition of insiders that includes a group of investors whose past transactions, on average, have shown no correlation with subsequent market moves: those who own more than 5% of a company’s shares.

Though on rare occasions a large shareholder also will be an officer or director, in almost all cases it will be an institutional investor — such as a mutual fund or a hedge fund.

Because the transactions of these big shareholders often involve a far greater number of shares than those of the insiders who do show more insight — officers and directors — the raw sell-to-buy ratio is heavily dominated by insiders with the least forecasting ability.

For example, Seyhun found that far from being a laggard, the average stock sold by these largest shareholders actually outperformed the market by 0.7% over the subsequent 12 months.

The current message of the insider data “is as pessimistic as I’ve ever seen over the last 25 years.”

Prof. Nejat Seyhun
For his calculation, Seyhun strips out the largest shareholders from the sell-to-buy ratio. Currently that adjusted figure shows a record level of insider bearishness. According to this measure, corporate officers and directors in recent weeks have sold an average of six shares of their company’s stock for every one that they bought. That is more than double the average adjusted ratio since 1990, which is when Seyhun’s data begin.

One year ago, Seyhun’s adjusted ratio was solidly in the bullish zone, he says. And in late 2003, the ratio was more bullish still.

The current message of the insider data “is as pessimistic as I’ve ever seen over the last 25 years,” he says.

There have been two prior occasions when the adjusted insider ratio got almost as bearish as it is today — early 2007 and early 2011. The first came a half a year before the beginning of the worst bear market since the 1930s. While the market didn’t fall as much following the second of these two instances, the May-October decline in 2011 did satisfy — based on intraday levels of the S&P 500 index — the semiofficial definition of a bear market as a 20% drop.
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