Burbuja inmobiliaria en China

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Burbuja inmobiliaria en China

Mensajepor Dalamar » 18 Mar 2013 10:03

El precio de la vivienda en China se dispara durante febrero

El precio de la vivienda en China, tanto de nueva construcción como de segunda mano, registró un fuerte incremento durante el mes de febrero, algo que aviva los temores de que el país sufra una burbuja inmobiliaria.


Esto lo escribi hace tiempo:

http://www.dalamarblog.com/burbuja-inmo ... -en-china/

Otras noticias:

http://www.idealista.com/news/archivo/2 ... a-de-dubai

http://www.idealista.com/news/archivo/2 ... o-estallar

http://www.idealista.com/news/archivo/2 ... upa-al-fmi

http://www.idealista.com/news/archivo/2 ... s-burbujas

Esto nos recuerda a que las burbujas duran mas de lo que todo el mundo se cree!
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Re: Burbuja inmobiliaria en China

Mensajepor Dalamar » 22 Mar 2013 07:31

Guangzhou will have 2.2 million sqm of Grade A office space coming on stream in the next five years. It is natural that investors have some concern that vacancy rates will rise and put pressure on rents. However, 75% of Guangzhou’s Grade A office stock has been completed since 2005 and rents have proved to be resilient in that time. Our data show that annual rental growth in the past three years averaged 7.1% in the face of nearly 1.5 million sqm of new office space. In particular, in 2011, when a historic peak in annual supply of 630,000 sqm was delivered to the market, net absorption also reached a historic high at 550,000 sqm, with average rents rising by 9.4% y-o-y. On the other hand, in 2012, when leasing demand softened across China, rents retreated by 3.2% y-o-y.

Not surprisingly, part of this high quality office space was built for headquarters or pre-sold to cash-rich domestic Chinese occupiers, who continue to actively purchase bulk office space for self-use. That explains part of the correlation we have observed in China between speculative supply booms and net absorption.
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Re: Burbuja inmobiliaria en China

Mensajepor Dalamar » 31 Mar 2013 11:11

China's plan to tax home sales alarms market: Thousands of people in China are rushing to either buy or sell their properties. They are trying to avoid a new capital gains tax
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Re: Burbuja inmobiliaria en China

Mensajepor Dalamar » 08 Abr 2013 13:14

“China’s local governments may have more than 20 trillion yuan ($3.2 trillion) of debt, former Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng said, almost double the figure given in a 2011 report by the National Audit Office. The combined debt of China’s central governments and the nation’s provinces and cities may currently be more than 30 trillion yuan, Xiang, who served as finance minister from 1998 to 2003, said at the Boao Forum for Asia. Local governments had 10.7 trillion yuan of debt at the end of 2010, the auditor said in its report.”
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Re: Burbuja inmobiliaria en China

Mensajepor Dalamar » 16 May 2013 13:40

Podria ser este el caso?

China's "Ghost Cities": The Promise of Great Expectations

On the contrary, Keith believes China's "ghost cities" herald great expectations.

"There are very real reasons why China builds these cities in advance. The Chinese government is expecting the greatest migration in human history, as over a billion people urbanize by 2020. We're already several years in." Keith said, "The government has planned for this; they know people are coming and they're building in advance."

In reality, China is expecting the "ghost cities" to be full within the next 35 years - a long bet by Western standards. The megalopolis of China's East Coast is more or less at capacity, and so the Chinese government is seeking to build up its largely empty western regions.

"The other thing Western analysts don't bother to understand is that the Chinese plan everything in five-year cycles." Keith said, referring to China's famous Five-Year Plans.

"Two or three planning cycles ago, they created a 50-year initiative - the Go West Initiative - to plan for building up the country's west, as opposed to their urban eastern seaboard. Everything west of Xi'an is a targeted economic zone." Keith said. "They're just planning on timescales that Westerners don't get."
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Re: Burbuja inmobiliaria en China

Mensajepor Dalamar » 20 May 2014 05:14

China reported new home prices rose in April in the fewest cities in 1.5 years (44 of 70 cities down from 56 cities in March). The government has been trying to cool the housing market for for a few years. It is working, and now officials are relaxing their grip. Last week, the PBOC called on banks to expedite the granting of mortgages. It wants developers to cut prices to boost demand. Note that at its peak, the housing market is estimated to have accounted for nearly a quarter of China's GDP.
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Re: Burbuja inmobiliaria en China

Mensajepor Dalamar » 10 Feb 2015 11:12

Tyler Durden, writing for zero hedge, points out a few worrying facets of the Chinese property market that makes the debt situation there even more precarious:

1. Home prices fell by 4.3% in December, 2014, and there is estimated to be an 18 months supply of apartments overhanging the market, although property expert Ai Jingwei puts the number as high as seven years.
2. Land sales previously made up 25% of local government revenues; Zhiwei Zhang of Deutsche Bank says land revenues fell 21% in Q4 2014.
Note that the glut of new apartments is hitting the market just as the number of people in the age group of 25-49 (i.e. prime buyers) is just about to peak. Moody’s calculates that 23% of Chinese GDP last year was as a consequence of the building, sale and outfitting of apartments.


Parece que llega el momento de la verdad...
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Re: Burbuja inmobiliaria en China

Mensajepor Dalamar » 22 Feb 2015 07:40

The McKinsey analysis also has some choice words for China, where total debt and household debt have both quadrupled since the crisis , and where the total debt/GDP ratio now exceeds that for the U.S. and for Germany, with leverage dangerously concentrated in the property sector (total debt increased from $7 trillion to $28 trillion). Approximately 45% of China’s debt is linked to real estate. From the report:

Property prices have risen by 60 percent since 2008 in 40 Chinese cities, and even more in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Residential real estate prices in prime locations in Shanghai are now only about 10 percent below those in Paris and New York.

In addition, China’s shadow banking system also now accounts for approximately 30% of total non-financial debt, with most financing going to the real estate sector. Also, the debt levels of many local governments appear unsustainable.

The good news? Chinese government debt remains at manageable levels. Also from the report:

China’s central government has the financial capacity to handle a financial crisis if one materializes—government debt is only 55 percent of GDP. Even if half of property-related loans defaulted and lost 80 percent of their value, we calculate that China’s government debt would rise to 79 percent of GDP to fund the financial-sector bailout.
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Re: Burbuja inmobiliaria en China

Mensajepor Vigilantexx » 23 Feb 2015 05:53

Pues bailout que se avecina y con ello frenazo a las inversiones del gobierno y por tanto la economía

Esto pinta a recesión mundial, lo único que no tengo claro es si el timing de las distintas regiones va a coincidir o habrá un rebalanceo por ejemplo con Europa saliendo de ella y tirando del carro o al revés se volverá a hundir influenciada por el resto del mundo.


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